The Rams would be a half-game out of the NFC West with a win
The 49ers started the year as Super Bowl favorites
LA won the first meeting between the two teams 27-24 in Week 3
The Los Angeles Rams (7-6) and San Francisco 49ers (6-7) are set for battle in a Thursday Night Football matchup between NFC West rivals that is rife with playoff implications.
The Rams took down the Niners in LA in Week 3, 27-24. They will put themselves a half-game behind the division-leading Seahawks with a win but are still -192 to miss the playoffs, while the 49ers would keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a win.
Here, we will break down the odds and share our best Rams vs. 49ers betting picks for TNF.
The following odds for the Rams vs 49ers matchup are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users can receive $150 in bonus bets after placing and winning a $5 wager.
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Rams | +2.5 (-105) | +124 | Over 49.5 (-105) |
San Francisco 49ers | -2.5 (-115) | -144 | Under 49.5 (-115) |
This is the second year running that the Rams became a significantly better team in the back half of the season. They won six of their last eight outings and just took down the Buffalo Bills 44-42 behind 320 yards and two touchdowns from Matthew Stafford.
The availability of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua drastically changed the Rams’ bottom line. They are once again one of the most prolific offenses in the league, have their running game operating at an efficient level, and averaged 25.5 points per game during their eight-game hot streak (would rank 10th for the year).
While LA is an offense-first team, there’s an argument to be made that their defense is responsible for them becoming a more competitive team. From weeks 7-13, or the seven games leading up to the Bills matchup, they ranked seventh in defensive EPA per play and ninth in defensive success rate, both notably ahead of where they started the season.
On the other side, the Niners enter this matchup fresh off a 38-13 drumming of the Chicago Bears that ended a three-game skid. Brock Purdy and George Kittle shone, though Isaac Guerendo suffered an injury, meaning the Niners could be without their top three running backs on Thursday.
This season has not gone according to how the Niners hoped. Injuries and declining performances from key players defined their results more times than not, and the general wear and tear of playing deep into the playoffs multiple seasons in a row has taken its toll.
The Niners are 10th in offensive and 16th in defensive EPA per play for the year as a whole. While solid, those marks are nowhere near the team’s usual standard and represent the sharp drop-off experienced by the entire team.
San Fran is 4-3 at home, while LA is 3-3 on the road. Division rivalry matchups on short weeks tend to produce competitive matchups, and this feels like it should be no different.
Purdy was great last week, but the Rams’ offense was even better, and they’ve clearly figured out how to bring the best out of their defense. This feels like a strong spot to get the underdog with three points.
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Purdy just threw for 325 yards and ripped off 292 yards the last time he faced the Rams. The piling amount of running back injuries also means that the Niners don’t have players in the backfield they truly trust, which means that Purdy should be in for a hefty workload.
The Rams’ defense has improved but still ranks 30th of 32 teams in yards allowed per pass attempt. The Niners know their season is on the line, so they should be aggressive and help get Purdy to the over.
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If Purdy is hot, then Stafford is scorching. He had the 320 yards last week and went over in five of his last seven games and was only 1.5 yards away from making that over in six of seven. He only managed 221 yards during the Week 3 matchup between the two, but neither Kupp nor Nacua played in that game.
The Niners don’t give up many passing yards per game, but Stafford and Sean McVay have plenty of familiarity with their defense and also have the offense playing at a high level.
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Because the 49ers are as banged up as they are, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rams try to control the clock more than they usually would. Williams just ran the ball 29 times last weekend and also recorded 24 carries during the Week 3 matchup with the Niners, both of which are positives ahead of the TNF showdown.
Williams went under in seven of 13 games but, despite what the odds say, should be in control of this game. The Niners’ rush defense is statistically worse than its pass defense, and the value is attractive.
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When: Thursday, Dec. 12 @ 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
The 49ers are favored by 2.5 points at all major NFL betting sites.
Niners bettors will find the best deal at BetMGM, where they are -2.5 (-110). Rams bettors will want to turn to bet365, Caesars, or FanDuel, where they are +2.5 (-105).
Anyone who bets on Rams vs. 49ers at FanDuel sportsbook can win $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
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Rams Injuries
Baux Limmer (C) - Questionable
Troy Reeded (LB) - Out (hamstring)
Demarcus Robinson (WR) - Questionable (shoulder)
49ers Injuries
Christian McCaffrey (RB) - Out (knee)
Nick Bosa (DE) - Questionable (oblique)
Malik Mustapha (S) - Questionable (chest)
Dre Greenlaw (LB) - Questionable (Achilles)
Trent Williams (OT) - Questionable
Jordan Mason (RB) - Out (ankle)
Isaac Guerendo (RB) - Questionable (foot)
Brandon Aiyuk (WR) - Out (knee)
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