Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Steelers -3 (-110), Falcons +3 (-110)
Moneyline: Steelers (-160), Falcos (+135)
Over/under: Over 38.5 (-110), Under 38.5 (-110)
The Steelers have gotten off to a 2-0 start in the preseason, giving us comfort in our prediction that they will be a Wild Card team this season. Kenny Pickett has stepped up his level of play from where he left off in the regular season last year, and the defense has held opponents to an average of 16 points.
The Falcons won their preseason opener against the Miami Dolphins and then miraculously tied the Cincinnati Bengals 13-13 in Week 2. Desmond Ridder looked alright in his debut (in Week 2) but had one interception to go with 80 yards on 7/9 passing. Taylor Heinicke also looked sharp with 162 yards on 13/21 passing, and the running game produced 116 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries.
We think the Steelers will be a much better regular-season team than the Falcons, but we could see this one being pretty close. Both defenses have limited their opponents’ output, and the offenses have shown life. We’ll take the Steelers in a close one but aren’t confident enough to lay the three points.
Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Colts -3.5 (-110), Eagles +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Colts (-175), Eagles (+150)
Over/under: Over 38.5 (-110), Under 38.5 (-110)
The Colts won their last outing against the Chicago Bears 24-17 after a four-point loss to the Buffalo Bills. Anthony Richardson was rested and could also be held out in the impending showdown against the Eagles, depending on coach Shane Steichen’s inclination.
Oddly enough, the Eagles also tied their last game 18-18 against the Cleveland Browns. They lost by one point to the Baltimore Ravens the week before, meaning they are yet to get on the board in the preseason after making it to the Super Bowl in February. Rookie backup Tanner McKee looked decent while Marcus Mariota, the Falcons’ starting QB last year, looked off the mark.
The Eagles have been able to run the ball well in the preseason, even if they have not yet won a game. The Colts, to their credit, have been decent on the ground but have not hit the 131-yard average the Eagles have. We don't think either quarterback situation is particularly amazing, and we like the Eagles’ defensive depth more, so we’ll take them as underdogs here.
Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers
Spread: Lions +3 (-110), Panthers -3 (-110)
Moneyline: Lions (+135), Panthers (-160)
Over/under: Over 36.5 (-110), Under 36.5 (-110)
The Lions only generated 96 passing yards and 35 rushing yards in Week 2 of the preseason as they got crushed by the Jacksonville Jaguars 25-7. That was a disappointing follow-up to their 21-16 Week 1 win against the New York Giants during which their offense was much more productive.
The Panthers, however, have not been at their best at any point yet. They lost their opener 27-0 to the New York Jets and then fell 21-19 to the Giants in Week 2. Bryce Young is yet to attempt more than six passes in a game and has been under constant duress, yet the Panthers are still favored.
We have not been moved by either one of these teams thus far. Lions backup QB Nate Sudfeld has thrown interceptions in both games thus far and could be in for a large workload yet again, so we are expecting mistakes—but we don’t trust the Panthers either, given their lack of chemistry on the offensive side of the ball. Both defenses are solid and have young players that want to make an impression, so we’ll take the under.
New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
Spread: Patriots -2.5 (-110), Titans +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Patriots (-135), Titans (+115)
Over/under: Over 38.5 (-110), Under 38.5 (-110)
The Patriots beat the Green Bay Packers 21-17 last week after an embarrassing 20-9 loss to the Houston Texans in their return to action. Bailey Zappe completed less than 50% of his passes but wound up with 117 yards and a touchdown, while Mac Jones went 6/9 for 50 yards, and the running game combined for 96 yards and a score.
The Titans, meanwhile, beat the Minnesota Vikings 24-16 thanks to a monstrous evening on the ground. Julius Chestnut, Malik Willis, and several others combined to run for 281 yards and two touchdowns, though Willis only threw for 85 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
Willis was the only Titans QB to take a snap in Week 2, and it will be interesting to see if that trend holds this week. The Patriots have a strong defensive mentality and won’t allow opponents to dominate them on the ground without providing at least some level of resistance. We’ll go with the Pats here because of their run defense and stronger QB play.
Los Angeles Chargers vs San Francisco 49ers
Spread: Chargers +6 (-110), 49ers -6 (-110)
Moneyline: Chargers (+210), 49ers (-250)
Over/under: Over 37 (-110), Under 37 (-110)
The Chargers fell 22-17 to the New Orleans Saints last week and are now 1-1 in the preseason. Backup QB Easton Stick threw a remarkable 41 passes for 233 yards and two interceptions as, like Willis, he was the only QB to take the field for the Chargers. The ground attack, led by Stick, produced 120 yards and two touchdowns.
The 49ers managed to bounce back from a trouncing in Week 1 and beat the Denver Broncos 21-20 thanks to a 32-yard field goal at the buzzer. Trey Lance looked more comfortable in the pocket than he did the week before, and both he and Sam Darnold threw one touchdown and one interception to go with 282 combined yards. Brock Purdy played one series and went 4/5 for 65 yards.
The 49ers have a far better quarterback situation and are much deeper as a roster. Six points is a large spread, especially for preseason standards, but we think they’ll be able to cause problems for Stick and rookie Max Duggan (if he suits up).
Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers
Spread: Seahawks +1 (-110), Packers -1 (-110)
Moneyline: Seahawks (+100), Packers (-120)
Over/under: Over 41 (-110), Under 41 (-110)
The Seahawks are yet to lose in the preseason and have an average margin of victory of 9.5 points. They beat the Dallas Cowboys last week 22-14 thanks to 119 yards on 5/6 passing from Drew Lock and 141 yards and two touchdowns from the running back committee. The defense also held the Cowboys to 293 yards of total offense and forced Will Grier into an interception.
The Packers lost to the Patriots after walloping the Cincinnati Bengals in the opening week 36-19. Jordan Love continued his strong preseason with 84 yards and a touchdown on 5/8 passing, while backup Sean Clifford was also highly productive (13/19, 137 yards), and the Packers ran for 119 yards and a score.
Both teams have shown an ability to put points on the board, which is why the total is the only one of the week to exceed 40 points. Even with the high line, we think that the over is a strong player here, given the results of each team's first two games.
Arizona Cardinals vs Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Cardinals +1 (-110), Vikings -1 (-110)
Moneyline: Cardinals (+100), Vikings (-120)
Over/under: Over 36 (-110), Under 36 (-110)
The Cardinals were wiped out by the Kansas City Chiefs 38-10 last week after impressively knocking off the Broncos in the opener. They too failed to hit 300 yards of total offense and only scored three points in the entire second half, while they gave up 503 yards of total offense and five touchdowns to the Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
The Vikings have not won a preseason game yet this year. Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall have proven to be an underwhelming duo of backup quarterbacks, and the running game only managed to hit 91 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 24-16 loss to the Titans.
Both teams were nothing short of overwhelmingly uninspiring last week. The under feels like the obvious play, but we’ve seen that both defenses can be torched and can’t be trusted to hold up. Therefore, we’ll go with the better team, the Vikings, to get their first win of the preseason.
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears
Spread: Bills -1 (+100), Bears +1 (-120)
Moneyline: Bills (-110), Bears (-110)
Over/under: Over 37.5 (-110), Under 37.5 (-110)
The Bills were tossed around by the Pittsburgh Steelers last week in a 27-15 loss, although they played mostly backups against lots of the Steelers’ starters. Matt Barkley threw three interceptions and only 93 yards after Kyle Allen and Josh Allen turned in decent but limited outings. The ground game was practically non-existent (as Bills fans are used to) and gained 72 yards on 20 carries.
The Bears fell to the Colts 24-17 last week as both teams put up strong offensive numbers. The Bears did miss the two touchdowns Justin Fields threw in three passes in the opener, but they showed a nice offensive philosophy and wound up with 310 yards, including 134 on the ground (note: The Bears led the league in rushing yards per game last season).
Chicago has looked explosive through two preseason games and seems to have a new swagger about it. The Bills, on the other hand, seem like they’re just waiting for the regular season to get underway. We like the Bears’ spirit, and we think they’ll pick up a win in their preseason finale.
Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Browns -3 (-115), Chiefs +3 (-105)
Moneyline: Browns (-160), Chiefs (+135)
Over/under: Over 38.5 (-110), Under 38.5 (-110)
The Browns are one of two teams (along with the Jets) that have already played three games because of the Hall of Fame Game at the start of August. In those three games, they’ve won by five, lost by two, and tied. They’ve scored an average of 18.7 points and have gotten impressive contributions from rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is in the running for standout player of the preseason.
The Chiefs lost on a last-second field goal and annihilated the Cardinals in Week 2 and are averaging 31 points per game in the preseason (what a shock). Andy Reid famously plays his starters in the preseason more than many other teams, and Patrick Mahomes found himself throwing 15 passes for 105 yards and a TD last week. The running backs also averaged over five yards per carry on 2- attempts and picked up two scores.
We feel the over is written all over this game. Mahomes is practically a lock for a scoring drive or two, and Thompson-Robinson has shown a real level of control of the offense. We’d be comfortable taking an alternate line and bumping this up for even more value (assuming the bet hits).
New York Jets vs New York Giants
Spread: Jets -4.5 (-110), Giants +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Jets (-200), Giants (+170)
Over/under: Over 38.5 (-110), Under 38.5 (-110)
The Jets and Giants are preparing for an in-state rivalry showdown (in nearby New Jersey). The Jets have gone 1-2 in their three preseason outings, most recently falling 13-6 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tim Boyle saw the majority of the work in that one and averaged just over four yards per attempt on 24 passes and tossed an interception while the ground game ran for 105 yards on just 16 attempts.
The Giants beat the Panthers behind an ultra-efficient passing clinic from Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, and Tommy DeVito. The trio combined to go 26/33 for 230 yards and two scores. The running backs did not contribute much, but the defense held the Panthers to less than 250 yards of offense and looked much improved, especially against the pass.
Aaron Rodgers is still yet to appear in the preseason, so unless reports come out that suggest he will play, we expected him to be sidelined. The Giants have gotten good quarterback play (even in their Week 1 loss to the Lions), and we think that should be enough for them to cover the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders
Spread: Bengals +4.5 (-110), Commanders -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bengals (+175), Commanders (-210)
Over/under: Over 37 (-110), Under 37 (-110)
The Bengals are still waiting to get on the board in the 2023 preseason after a 36-19 loss to the Packers and a 13-all tie with the Falcons. Their last outing saw Jake Browning and Trevor Siemian turn in pedestrian performances as Joe Burrow remained sidelined by a calf strain. The running game also could not make a difference, and the defense was overwhelmed (despite the final score).
The Commanders’ win total is only set at 6.5 in the regular season, but they’re 2-0 in the preseason. Their last win, a 29-28 thriller against a Baltimore Ravens team that had won 24 straight preseason games up to that point, was driven by excellent QB performances from Same Howell (19/25, 188 yards, two touchdowns) and Jake Fromm (10/16, 91 yards, one touchdown).
Washington seems to be responding well to Howell’s leadership under center and Eric Bieniemy’s arrival in the nation’s capital. The Bengals do have a solid defense, but their offense is still yet to get off the mark, so we’ll take the Commanders to win and cover.
Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Ravens -1.5 (-110), Buccaneers +1.5 (-110
Moneyline: Ravens (-130), Buccaneers (+110)
Over/under: Over 36.5 (-110), Under 36.5 (-110)
The Ravens are still a preseason juggernaut, even if they lost last week (for the first time in 25 concurrent weeks of preseason football). Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown did decent jobs running the offense, combining for four touchdowns and two interceptions to go with 185 yards. The Ravens also picked up 149 yards on 17 carries.
The Bucs ended their quarterback controversy and settled on Baker Mayfield as the Week 1 starter. They beat the Jets 13-6 last week as Mayfield sat and Kyle Trask went 20/28 for 218 yards and a touchdown, and the running game (as was the case for the majority of 2022) was ineffective).
Even though Johnson and Brown aren’t the consensus favorite backup tandem in the league, they can be trusted to lead a winning effort more than Trask and fellow backup John Wolford. The Ravens also won all of those preseason games for a reason, and they will get back on track this week.
Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Dolphins +6 (-110), Jaguars -6 (-110)
Moneyline: Dolphins (+210), Jaguars (-250)
Over/under: Over 39 (-110), Under 39 (-110)
The Dolphins brutalized the Houston Texans 28-3 last week after only scoring three points themselves in a Week 1 loss to the Falcons. Tua Tagovailoa threw an interception in one of his seven pass attempts, but backup Skylar Thompson went 15/22 for 157 yards and three touchdowns.
The Jaguars are 2-0 and have scored an average of 26.5 points in the preseason. They just beat the Lions 25-7 behind 399 yards of total offense while holding the Lions to 131 total yards. It’s also important to note they did that without playing any of their starters, including Trevor Lawrence.
The Dolphins have the better QB tandem with Thompson and Mike White, but the Jags have been winning big and are in a nice groove. That said, the six-point line is a lot to lay, and we’ll take the Dolphins to cover (but probably lose).
Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Raiders -5.5 (-110), Cowboys +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Raiders (-230), Cowboys (+190)
Over/under: Over 38.5 (-110), Under 38.5 (-110)
The Raiders have been a force in the preseason, jumping out to a 2-0 record and scoring 34 points in both of their outings. Fourth-round draft pick and rookie QB Aidan O’Connell has been great and just put up 163 yards and two touchdowns on 11/18 passing in the last outing. Josh Jacobs is still not with the team, but the running back committee ran for 98 yards and a score in his absence.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 0-2 and lost to the Seahawks 22-14 last week. They received solid production from their backup quarterbacks (Will Grier and Cooper Rush) but could not contain the Seahawks’ high-powered offense, the same way they could not slow down the Jaguars in Week 1.
We think the Raiders are in better shape to win here, but we also like the over the most. Both teams are scoring lots of points in the preseason, and neither has looked that sharp on defense. We’re expecting 40+ total points and could see the final score flying past the over.
Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos
Spread: Rams +5.5 (-105), Broncos -5.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Rams (+190), Broncos (-240)
Over/under: Over 36.5 (-110), Under 36.5 (-110)
The Rams, weirdly enough, lost both of their preseason games 34-17—so at least they’ve been consistent. They fell last week in a game in which their only offensive touchdown came on a four-yard run by backup QB Stetson Bennett. They also gave up 342 yards passing to the Raiders and were dominated in every area of the game.
The Broncos are also yet to get a win in the preseason but have been much closer, losing both games by one point. They were knocked off by the 49ers last week 21-20 as the ground game flourished but the passing game and defense struggled.
Straight up, our favorite pick here is the under. Both teams are out of whack on offense and are still looking to get their rhythm down. The defenses haven’t been good but will be favored to get the better of their matchups on the other side of the football.
Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints
Spread: Texans +3.5 (-115), Saints -3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Texans (+140), Saints (-165)
Over/under: Over 38 (-110), Under 38 (-110)
The Sunday Night Football matchup this week features the Texans and the Saints. Houston is 1-1 in the preseason with two very different results, one a 20-9 win and the other a 28-3 loss. The loss was the most recent result, one in which C.J. Stroud and Davis Mills combined for 154 yards and only completed 50% of their passes while the running backs picked up a lowly 32 yards on 14 attempts.
The Saints have been more nailed on and are 2-0 and scoring 24 points per game. They topped the Chargers last week 22-17 as Jameis Winston and Jake Haener delivered another strong outing. They also forced Chargers QB Easton Stick into two interceptions and 21/41 passing.
The Saints are the rightful favorites here. They have a much steadier QB room and have looked more in tune with one another on defense, and we think they’ll close out the preseason with a perfect 3-0 record.
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