Pick: Bills -8.5 (-110) at DraftKings
When it comes to divisional matchups, plenty of things can happen due to the teams' familiarity with one another, but right now, in Week 7 of the NFL season, the Patriots’ season is over. They’ve had numerous injuries on defense to key players like Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon; their offensive line has been atrocious outside of Trent Brown; they have weak receiving options; the running backs can’t do much with how bad the offensive line is, and quarterback Mac Jones hasn’t thrown a passing touchdown since Week 3. However, since then, he has five interceptions and nine turnover-worthy plays.
The point is that it’s been brutal this season for the team that had a dynasty run for over 20 years.
The Patriots have some winnable matchups here when you look at the Bills cornerbacks, but we don’t trust the offensive line or Jones’ ability enough for them to make the most of it.
Conversely, the Bills offensive line will face a reduced Patriots pass rush. With Bill Belichick coaching them, that’s something to always consider, but there aren’t any Judon-like threats there. At cornerback, the Bills will face these cornerbacks:
- Jonathan Jones: 81 coverage snaps, seven receptions allowed on ten targets, 131 yards.
- Myles Bryant: 193 coverage snaps, 22 receptions allowed on 26 targets, 232 yards, two touchdowns.
- J.C. Jackson: 50 coverage snaps with the Patriots, three receptions allowed on ten targets for 21 yards.
Jackson has played better since coming to the Patriots, but he was horrific with the Chargers. Perhaps he’s returning to the form that got him the massive payday from the Chargers.
Still, there’s simply too much against the Patriots here to overcome. The Bills should win by double digits.
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Pick: Stefon Diggs Any Time TD (-105) at DraftKings
We went over the Patriots corners above, but we also need to talk about how productive Diggs has been this season. He’s had double-digit targets in all but two games and has scored four touchdowns over the past three weeks. He’s average 12.7 yards per catch, and he’s facing a cornerback group that, outside of Bryant, hasn’t played much on the Patriots 2023-24 roster.
Diggs will be heavily targeted here, as he always is. He has 64 targets this season, and the next closest Bills pass catcher is Gabe Davis with 30.
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Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 10.5 Rushing Attempts (+110) at DraftKings
The 2023-24 season has been a massive letdown for Stevenson and those who believe in him coming into the year. Now, we’re taking the under on his rush attempts. Over the past two weeks, fellow running back Ezekiel Elliott has been cutting into the workload. Stevenson had eight carries in Week 5 and 10 in Week 6.
Here, the Patriots are sizable underdogs and are unlikely to be in a position to run much. Instead, Stevenson will likely get more work as a pass catcher like we saw in Week 6, where he caught five balls on six targets.
Getting a +110 value for the third leg is excellent, especially for a player in a timeshare against a near double-digit spread.
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