NFL Week 3 Parlay Picks

As we head into Week 3 of the NFL season, it seems this could, collectively, be more of a down week for offensive outputs.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, eight games (including Thursday Night Football) have totals of less than 45.

While these games may not be the offensive outputs we all know and love, there’s still plenty of value to be had in these games, and really, all games.

Below, we have a three-leg parlay with odds of +611 stretching across the entire Sunday slate.

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings. Using our exclusive registration link, you can earn a $1,000 deposit bonus when you sign up today. 

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Without wide receivers Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman, the Indianapolis Colts were totally inept on the road in Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, losing miserably, 24-0.

This week, they host a Kansas City Chiefs team averaging over 35 points per game after dropping 44 in Week 1 and 27 in Week 2.

Defensively, the Colts still have some great players. They have Grover Stewart in run defense in the middle of the defensive line, DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye rushing the passer, and linebacker E.J. Speed playing the best football of his career.

While these are good players, much of their success has come against the run game, which isn’t necessarily something the Chiefs rely on. Their running backs are averaging just 19 carries a game as a unit.

The Colts have cornerback Stephon Gilmore who hasn’t been his usual elite self this season. Still, he’s good enough to match up against someone like Chiefs wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

The Chiefs may not have a world-beater like Tyreek Hill anymore, but the Colts seemingly have no answers to cover tight end Travis Kelce. There’s too much speed elsewhere to zero in on Kelce, which will create problems for a defense that has shown more strength in defending an aspect of the game the Chiefs can do without.

For the Colts, quarterback Matt Ryan keeps turning the ball over, throwing four interceptions through two games, including three last week.

The absence of Pittman was huge, sure, but they played the Jaguars of all teams.

Even with Pittman back in the lineup, he’ll likely see plenty of L’Jarius Sneed, who’s been competent this season, but, yes, will lose some battles to Pittman.

As for running the ball, this is a significant part of the Colts offense. The Chiefs have some playmakers to help defend in the run, including linebacker Darius Harris and defensive tackle Chirs Jones up the middle. The Chiefs can be a bit susceptible to the run—they have the No. 17 run defense unit in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

Typically, we’d look at the Chiefs vs. Colts and think, “well, Ryan in a shootout with Mahomes is a problem.”

But, as we saw in Week 1 against the Houston Texans, the Colts will continue running the ball even if they’re down multiple scores.

The goal for the Colts here will be to run early and often and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands. The Colts don’t have someone to cover Kelce, but they’ll try to keep it close enough.

That said, Ryan is prone to turnovers, which could be a kill down the stretch.

If this number were to reach a touchdown, we’d lean Colts, but under that, we think the Chiefs can win by seven.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

Pick: Under 40.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Even with a line of 40.5, we’ll take the under here.

These teams’ offenses, especially the Carolina Panthers, are held back due to quarterback play.

Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield is harming the offense as he’s ranked eighth in time to throw in the league while posting an average target depth of 7.3 yards.

The average target depth is concerning because he has two players, Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore, who can get open downfield. Still, Mayfield just doesn’t target there often enough.

This week, he gets a Saints defense that hasn’t been their typically stout self when rushing the passer, but against a Panthers offensive line where the tackles are the weakest links through the first two games, this is an excellent opportunity to get it going.

Mayfield must also contend with cornerback Marshon Lattimore draping over Moore and safety Tyrann Mathieu disrupting many plays.

Though they’re at home, this feels like a 10-13 point day for them.

Winston has been more aggressive for the Saints when throwing the ball downfield, but he’s making errors even when he’s not facing a blitz or getting hit.

All three interceptions in Week 2 against the Buccaneers came when he wasn’t blitzed and kept clean in the pocket.

Without running back Alvin Kamara as a potential safety valve, Winston is forced to move the ball more downfield, which can be a good thing. Still, he needs to clean up the unnecessary errors.

There are some intriguing matchups for the Saints offense, such as wide receiver Jarvis Landry going up against Panther cornerback Myles Hartsfield, but fellow receiver Michael Thomas should have some opportunities against Panthers outside cornerbacks Jaycee Jorn and Donte Jackson.

The pass rush for the Panthers against this Saints offensive line should give Winston some time to throw, but again, he makes his errors even without pressure.

Losing 20-10 last week, this is a game in which the Saints could be on the other side of this, winning 20-10.

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers

Pick: 49ers -1.5 (-105) at DraftKings

Of course, the major headline here is San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo starting the rest of the season after Trey Lance was diagnosed with a fractured ankle.

In his first start back, Jimmy G and the 49ers head into Denver to take on a Russell Wilson-led Broncos team that has struggled to open the year.

The most exciting part about this matchup will be in the trenches, rushing the passer.

The 49ers have two solid tackles in Mike McGlinchey and Trent Williams, but the Broncos have Randy Gregory and Bradley Chubb. Chubb has been one of the best pass rushers in the league, especially in Week 1 against the Seahawks.

For the 49ers, they have Nick Bosa and Samson Ebukam off the edge against Cameron Fleming and Garett Bolles, respectively.

However, as a whole, this 49ers defense has been great, limiting the Seahawks to just seven points. They allowed 19 in Chicago in Week 1, but the weather almost makes that game irrelevant from a data standpoint.

So far this year, Wilson is just having trouble completing passes downfield.

Through the first two games, 17.8% of Wilson’s attempts have come on throws of 20+ yards, and he’s only completing 38.5% of those throws. None of those passes were drops.

On throws of 10-19 yards, Wilson is just over 55%, but that’s a smaller sample size as it’s 12.3% of his attempts.

Wilson just isn’t playing great football at the moment. This could be that he’s gelling with a new offense, but against the 49ers in Week 3 of the season isn’t an ideal time to figure it out.

The bright spot for this lackluster Broncos offense has been running back Javonte Williams. He has just 22 carries on the season but has 118 yards (5.4 yards per carry).

Giving just 1.5 points, the 49ers defense and Wilson’s less-than-stellar play spells a loss for the Broncos at Mile High.