NFL Week 5 Best Parlay Picks: Tight Spreads and Difficult Decisions

• The Dolphins have scored 25 total points over their last three games.

• Three of Washington’s four games have ended with over 50 total points with the Commanders scoring 80 total points over their last two games.

• The Jaguars are yet to score more than 20 points in a game this year.

Four weeks into the new season and the NFL remains as difficult to predict as ever. It’s been a challenge putting together parlays thus far because not only are teams we thought would be contenders underachieving but teams we didn’t expect to be competitive are finding ways to thrive. At the same time, most games have a spread of three points or less, meaning most of these games could go either way.

Nevertheless, we have put together a four-leg parlay for Week 5 by making some tough choices amidst a sea of tight spreads. This parlay was created using odds from Caesars Sportsbook, which is one of the most recognizable names in sports betting. Currently, signing up for a Caesars account means getting a bonus bet of up to $1,000 if you lose your first wager, making it a little easier to shoot the moon with a parlay on your first wager. Our parlay currently has +707 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

If you bet at Caesars, you should also learn how to stream NFL games for free right on the Caesars platform. Likewise, you should also check out our breakdown of Super Bowl LIX odds heading into Week 5. But for now, let’s take an in-depth look at our four-leg NFL parlay for Week 5.

Dolphins vs. Patriots ML (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook 

This game seems like a toss-up, but so much is working against the Dolphins right now that this feels like a game New England should win. Granted, the Patriots are just 1-3 on the season, but they’ve played three of their first four games on the road. In New England’s only home game of the season, the Pats nearly beat the Seahawks before losing in overtime. For such a bad team, the Patriots have played solid defense and run the ball effectively, so a home game against a spiraling Miami team should be a game they can win.

Plus, Jacoby Brissett might actually be the best quarterback in this game. The Miami offense has been a disaster with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined. Tyler Huntley wasn’t the answer in a blowout loss against the Titans on Monday. In fact, the Dolphins have scored just 25 total points over their last three games. Miami’s amazing wide receiver tandem is futile without competent quarterback play. That makes us confident the Patriots can hold serve at home.

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Browns vs. Commanders Over 44.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook 

After a subpar performance in Week 1, Cleveland’s defense has come on strong in recent weeks. That helps lower the over/under of this game in a favorable way. Three of Washington’s four games this year have featured over 50 total points scored. Even in the game they won against the Giants without scoring a touchdown, there were 39 total points. Since it doesn’t look like the Washington offense will be held without a touchdown anytime soon, the odds are good that the Commanders will find themselves in another high-scoring affair in Week 5. 

Jayden Daniels and company have things rolling, as the Commanders have scored 80 total points over their last two games. Even a good Cleveland defense may not be able to keep them under wraps. Meanwhile, the Commanders are giving up 25.5 points per game, allowing over 30 points twice in four games. Even with questions about Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland offense, the Browns will stumble into some points, likely making this another game involving the Commanders that has at least 50 total points.

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Jaguars Under 24.5 Total Points (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Jacksonville’s 0-4 start to the season has been hard to watch. The Jaguars have been atrocious offensively, failing to score more than 20 points in any of their first four games. That makes the possibility of topping 24.5 points hard to fathom. The Jags have been held to 13 points or less in two of their four games while Trevor Lawrence has been held under 180 passing yards in three of four games. At the moment, there is little reason to think an offensive explosion is coming anytime soon. 

The caveat is that the Indianapolis defense has sprung a few leaks this season. Both the Texans and Steelers have scored over 24.5 points against them. However, the Indy defense has played well against teams that are somewhat limited offensively. The Packers - without Jordan Love - and the Bears both scored exactly 16 points against the Colts. That’s enough to make us confident that they can hold the Jaguars to 24 points or less.

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Cardinals vs. 49ers ML (-355) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Just like last week, we’ll sneak an easy win into our parlay. San Francisco’s moneyline is actually a lot more helpful this week than it was last week. Given the way the Cardinals have played recently, the 49ers should have just as easy of a victory as their 30-13 win over the Patriots last week. The promise Arizona showed early in the season has disappeared after back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 42-14 home loss to Washington last week.

Meanwhile, San Francisco’s defense looked dominant against the Patriots last week. Despite some injury questions, Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle all played in Week 4, so the 49ers are getting closer to full strength offensively. The 49ers have also won seven of their last 10 head-to-head games with the Cardinals, making this an easy pick to tack onto our parlay.

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