NFL Week 3 Best Parlay Picks: What Safe Bets Add Up to Big Value?

• Of Houston’s seven field goals this year, six have been 50 yards or longer.

• Three of the last five times the Rams hosted the 49ers, the game was decided by just three points.

• The Bills have scored over 30 points in each of their first two games while the Jaguars have scored just 30 total points across two games.

Now that we’ve completed two weeks of the NFL regular season, we’re hopefully starting to get a better understanding of each team. That should give us a better idea of where to find value when we make picks. It’s even more important to be sure when putting together a parlay with no margin for error.

For our Week 3 parlay, the odds are from Caesars Sportsbook. For first-time Caesars customers, your first bet on the platform comes with a safety net. If you lose your first bet, you’ll receive a bonus bet equal to that wager up to $1,000, allowing you to shoot for the stars with your first bet. The four-leg parlay we’ve put together at Caesars this week currently has +575 odds.

Betting with Caesars also means you’ll be able stream NFL Week 3 games for free at the Caesars platform. Meanwhile, in preparation for Week 3 of the season, check out how our Super Bowl LIX odds look two weeks into the new season.

Texans vs. Vikings Under 45 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Despite a wealth of offensive talent, the Texans haven’t been that explosive offensively. They’ve scored just four offensive touchdowns while settling for seven field goals. Of those seven field goals, six have come from 50 yards or more. That means they aren’t getting that close to the end zone on most drives and relying on Ka’imi Fairbairn to make some tough kicks. Things aren’t likely to get much better on the road in Week 3 against a Minnesota defense that’s allowed the third-fewest points in the NFL through two weeks.

On the other side, the Vikings have stayed under the point total in their two games, largely because of that defense. Despite scoring 20-plus points in each of their first two games, they are far from a juggernaut with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Justin Jefferson is also nursing an injury, so don’t expect the Minnesota offense to be at full strength. Of course, Houston flexed some defensive muscle last week, which is why this looks like a low-scoring affair.

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Giants vs. Browns ML (-285) at Caesars Sportsbook 

After their Week 1 performance at home, it’s hard to trust the Browns to cover a touchdown. But it is a safe bet to think they can beat the Giants at home. The G-Men lost last week despite not giving up a touchdown. While some may view that as a silver lining, that’s the sign of a team that finds ways to lose. They also let the cat out of the bag with regard to Malik Nabers, giving the Cleveland defense a chance to game plan against him and force Daniel Jones to beat them in other ways.

Offensively, the Browns have a lot of work to do. Even in last week’s win, they were out-gained by Jacksonville. This is another reason why expecting the Browns to cover is a bad idea. Despite Deshaun Watson getting off to an aggressively mediocre start this year, the Browns have enough offensive playmakers to put points on the board. Between that and a solid defense, Cleveland will have enough to secure a win, even if it’s an ugly win.

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49ers vs. Rams +7.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook 

It’s tough to feel confident in the 49ers covering more than a touchdown on the road after last week’s loss. To make things tougher for San Francisco, Deebo Samuel is expected to miss this week’s game in addition to Christian McCaffrey being on IR. When you take away those two players, the San Francisco offense looks a lot different. The 49ers may not have enough offensive firepower to cover this spread.

In fairness, the Rams were atrocious in last week’s loss to the Cardinals. But this is the same team that nearly beat the Lions on the road in Week 1. They’re also playing at home in what figures to be a must-win game after starting 0-2. Three of the last five games between these teams in Los Angeles have been decided by a field goal, including a playoff win for the Rams. Even if the 49ers end up winning, a desperate Rams team is going to keep it close.

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Jaguars vs. Bills ML (-250) at Caesars Sportsbook 

The Bills probably aren’t well-rounded enough to feel comfortable eating the points in this game. However, they’re at home on a Monday night following a Thursday game, so they’ve had a lot of time to rest and prepare for this game. They also have Josh Allen and James Cook to carry the offense while waiting for some answers to emerge at wide receiver. Even against a Jacksonville defense that’s allowed 20 points or less in a pair of losses, the Bills won’t be easy to keep under wraps for four quarters.

Perhaps more importantly, the Jaguars don’t look like a team that can score enough points to win a game against Allen and the Bills. Trevor Lawrence has completed just 51% of his passes while taking seven sacks. Travis Etienne isn’t moving the needle much on the ground either. The bottom line for the Jags is that they’ve scored a total of 30 points in each game whereas the Bills have scored over 30 points in each of their first two games. While we might be underselling Buffalo’s ability to win convincingly, in a four-leg parlay, taking Buffalo’s moneyline is a safe bet.

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