Best Parlay Picks for NFL Week 18: Betting on the Games That Mean Something

• The Bears have been held to 15 points or less six times during their current 10-game losing streak.

• Tampa Bay is averaging 32.7 points per game over its last six games, going 5-1 during that stretch. 

• The Jets have allowed at least 25 points in eight of their last 10 games.

The final week of the NFL season is always one of the toughest from a betting perspective. Some teams are completely out of the playoff race, some are desperate for a win, and some are resting their best players because they’ve locked up a playoff spot and can’t change their seed. Needless to say, that makes things a little harder to handicap because you never know what teams will be motivated and what teams will fail to show up. That’s why when it comes to our Week 18 parlay, we’ve chosen games that have meaning to at least one of the teams involved. Admittedly, that has limited our options, but we’ve still managed to put together a valuable parlay.

The odds for this week’s parlay come from Caesars Sportsbook, which always has competitive odds and tools that make it easy to put together a parlay. At the same time, Caesars has a great welcome offer for new users right now. All you have to do is sign up and make a $1 bet to receive a set of 10 100% profit boosts. This means that after your first $1 bet, you’ll be able to double the profit on your next 10 bets. Of course, even before you add a profit boost, this week’s four-leg parlay has odds at Caesars of +715.

After you sign up and create your parlay at Caesars, you should learn how to stream NFL Week 18 games for free right on the Caesars platform. This will allow you to track the progress of your parlay in real-time. Also, with the regular season coming to a close this weekend, it’s never been more important to check out a breakdown of the current Super Bowl LIX odds in case you want to put a wager on what team will survive the playoffs and win it all. In the meantime, here is a four-leg parlay for Week 18.

Bears vs. Packers -6.5 (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook 

A missed field goal prevented the Bears from beating the Packers earlier this season. But this game isn’t going to be nearly as close as that one. The Bears have been an absolute trainwreck heading down the stretch, although we’ll tease the spread under a touchdown just to be safe. Chicago has lost 10 straight games, scoring just three points in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. That was the sixth time during their 10-game losing streak that the Bears were held to 15 points or less. If that continues, they aren’t likely to score enough points to stay within a touchdown of Green Bay.

As for the Packers, with a win and a Washington loss, they’ll be able to avoid playing the Eagles in the Wild Card Round, which should provide Green Bay with plenty of motivation. The Packers will also want to get the taste of last week’s loss to the Vikings out of their mouths and build some momentum heading into the playoffs. The kicker is that Green Bay has scored at least 25 points in six straight games. In fact, before scoring just 25 points last week, the Packers had scored at least 30 points in five straight games. The way things are going for the Green Bay offense, the Packers should have no problem covering a touchdown against the Bears. The kicker is that the Packers have won 11 straight head-to-head meetings against the Bears, and the only one decided by less than seven points was the meeting earlier this season.

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Saints vs. Buccaneers -13 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook 

The Buccaneers know that a win puts them into the playoffs. They aren’t going to mess around and take the Saints lightly. That’s what we saw last week in a 48-14 thrashing of the Panthers, and that’s what we expect to see this week. With that win, the Bucs have now won five of their last six games, as they’ve picked up momentum late in the season. Tampa is scoring 32.7 points per game in those six games and blew out the Saints 51-27 earlier this season. That makes us confident the Buccaneers will win this game going away and cover two touchdowns.

At the same time, there is not much evidence to suggest that the Saints can make this a competitive game. New Orleans has lost four of its last five games, scoring just 10 total points over the last two weeks and 14 points or less in four of those five games. Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara are both injured and the Saints have no reason to force them back onto the field if they aren’t fully healthy. Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler hasn’t gotten the job done in recent weeks, which should lead to another lopsided loss.

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Dolphins vs. Jets Over 34.5 (-228) at Caesars Sportsbook 

On paper, both of these teams are far from the best offensive teams in the league. But the over/under for this game is far too low for a matchup that produced 58 total points less than a month ago. We decided to tease the point total just a little to be safe. Also, the Jets, in particular, are as vulnerable defensively as any team in the NFL right now. They’ve allowed at least 25 points in six of their last seven games and eight of their last 10 games. If that trend continues, it’ll be hard for this game to end with fewer than 35 points.

Of course, the key to the game is the status of Tua Tagovailoa, who missed Miami’s game last week with an injury. In a must-win game, he’ll likely do everything possible to play. If not, Tyler Huntley had a good game last week and should be fine against a lackluster New York defense. Meanwhile, the Jets are going to play their starters in Week 18, including Aaron Rodgers. While this has been another lost season for New York, the chance to beat the Dolphins and end Miami’s playoff hopes should motivate the Jets. Even if the Jets fall behind early, they’ll fight back to make this a competitive game and run up the point total.

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Chiefs +11 (-110) vs. Broncos at Caesars Sportsbook 

This game is meaningless to the Chiefs but everything for the Broncos. Needless to say, the oddsmakers are expecting Kansas City’s key starters to sit, giving the Broncos an easy path to victory and a playoff spot. But it’s unlikely to be that simple. Even if Patrick Mahomes sits, Carson Wentz is still better than the average backup quarterback. He’ll also have something to prove and will be motivated to play his best. Also, even if a few key players on the Kansas City defense sit out, the Chiefs are strong on that side of the ball, giving up less than 20 points in five straight games. That makes it hard to imagine the Chiefs losing by double digits regardless of the scenario.

Keep in mind that the Broncos have lost back-to-back games and haven’t played their best football late in the season. The Denver defense that carried them for large stretches of the season has conceded at least 30 points in three of its last four games. Also, while the numbers have looked good lately, the Denver offense isn’t the most dynamic in the league. The Broncos scored just 14 points in their first matchup against the Chiefs this season, even if they were a blocked field goal away from winning that game. Even against a watered-down Kansas City roster, the Broncos aren’t going to have an easy time, which is why taking the Chiefs to cover the 11-point spread makes sense.

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