Best Parlay Picks for NFL Week 11: Favorite or Underdog, Leaning Heavy on Home Teams

• The Steelers have won seven of their last eight head-to-head meetings with the Ravens.

• The Broncos are 3-0 this season when favored. 

• Atlanta’s defense hasn’t held an opponent under 20 points since Week 1.

Unfortunately, our hot streak is over. After three straight weeks of cashing in on our four-leg NFL parlay, we fell a little short in Week 10. However, that won’t deter us when it comes to making picks for Week 11. As usual, we’re going to tease the spreads of a few games just a little. More importantly, we’re going to put our trust primarily in home teams regardless of whether they’re the favorite or the underdog. That will help to give our parlay great value and an excellent chance of hitting.

The odds for our Week 11 parlay comes from Caesars Sportsbook. When you click on a specific game at Caesars, there is a tool that makes it easy to tease the spread, which is why Caesars is great for parlays. Plus, new users get a bonus bet of up to $1,000 if they lose their first wager after signing up. This makes it easy to bet big on a lucrative parlay with your first bet because you’ll have the bonus bet coming your way just in case all four legs of the parlay don’t hit. According to the current odds at Caesars, our four-leg NFL parlay has odds of +615.

Once you place your parlay, make sure you know how to stream NFL Week 11 games for free on the Caesars platform. This will make it easier to track your parlay as games are being played. Meanwhile, check up on what teams are trending in the right direction by checking out our most recent breakdown of the Super Bowl LIX odds. For now, here is a closer look at our NFL Week 11 parlay.

Browns vs. Saints ML (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook 

While this game is a virtual toss-up, we feel good about siding with the Saints at home after they knocked off the Falcons last week. Despite being 3-7 overall, New Orleans is 3-4 this season when Derek Carr plays. He will give them a fighting chance, especially at home. Don’t forget that Alvin Kamara is having perhaps the best season of his career. He’ll be the best player on the field in this game and capable of lifting the Saints to victory.

Of course, picking against the Browns is typically a safe pick. Cleveland’s stunning win over the Ravens a few weeks ago seems like a distant memory. The Browns were back to being pitiful the following week against the Chargers with Jameis Winston throwing three interceptions. Even though Cleveland is coming off a bye week, there is no reason to think Winston and the Browns will be able to go on the road and win a game.

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Ravens vs. Steelers +7.5 (-238) at Caesars Sportsbook 

The Ravens are road favorites in this rivalry game, but we’re getting behind the Steelers. Just to be safe, we’ve teased the line so that Pittsburgh just has to keep this game within a touchdown. That shouldn’t be too difficult for a team that’s giving up just 16.2 points per game. It’s also worth mentioning that the Steelers are 3-0 since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been good enough to win with help from Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers are also 7-2 against the spread this season, making them a good home underdog pick, especially with the line teased a little.

As for the Ravens, they’ve struggled against their division rivals this season. They suffered an embarrassing defeat against the Browns a few weeks ago and have a pair of too-close-for-comfort wins against the enigmatic Bengals. Even with the best offense in the NFL, it’s easy to envision them having some trouble in a hostile road environment. Keep in mind that the Baltimore defense has allowed at least 29 points in four of the team’s last six games. The kicker is that the Ravens have lost seven of their last eight head-to-head meetings with the Steelers, which also guides us in Pittsburgh’s direction for this game.

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Jaguars vs. Lions -9.5 (-183) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Not that the Lions aren’t capable of winning by two touchdowns, but we just wanted to tease this line a little so Detroit only has to win by 10 points. While some may look at last week’s narrow victory as a reason to be concerned, it’s actually a testament to how good the Lions are this season. Even with Jared Goff playing horribly and throwing five picks, Detroit managed to beat a quality team on the road. Back at home against a bad team, the Lions should get back to playing like themselves and cruise to an easy win.

After all, this is a 2-8 Jacksonville team. To their credit, the Jaguars only have two losses this season that have come by double digits. But they also have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, so containing the dynamic Detroit offense at Ford Field seems unlikely. If Trevor Lawrence remains sidelined and Mac Jones starts again, it’ll be even harder for the Jaguars to keep pace in a shootout. Ultimately, the Lions should be able to score enough points to win this game by double figures.

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Falcons vs. Broncos ML  (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Admittedly, the Broncos aren’t the safest pick, especially against a division leader like the Falcons. However, they are 3-0 when favored this season, so it’s a good omen that oddsmakers have them favored again. They’re also 3-0 against the NFC South, which doesn’t hurt. While losing last week on a blocked field goal hurts, they went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs on the road. That should give the Broncos confidence that can beat anybody, especially with the way Bo Nix has come along in recent weeks. It doesn’t hurt that the Broncos have a top-5 defense that can keep them in games.

On the other side, the Atlanta defense has been too inconsistent to have faith in the Falcons beating a strong defensive team on the road. Despite racking up over 450 yards of offense last week, the Falcons could only muster 17 points against the Saints. The Denver defense figures to be the best defense they’ve faced since September, so there is no guarantee of a bounce-back performance. Keep in mind the Falcons haven’t held an opponent under 20 points since Week 1. They don’t have a defense they can rely on, making them a little more vulnerable on the road against a strong defensive team.

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