NFL Week 10 Best Parlay Picks: Stick with Home Favorites

• The Chiefs have won eight straight home games against the Broncos with seven of those wins coming by at least seven points.

• The Saints have allowed at least 26 points in five of their last six games while the Falcons have scored at least 26 points in five of their last six games.

• The Chargers have allowed 35 total points in their three home games while the Titans have been outscored 86-24 over their last two road games.

The hot steak is official! For each of the last three weeks, the four-leg NFL parlay we have put together has been a winner. Last week, our parlay with +445 odds paid to anyone who followed it, albeit with a couple of close calls. Our strategy of teasing lines just a little while also incorporating some over/under picks seems to be paying off. Needless to say, we’re going to follow a similar strategy until it stops working. With a little bit of teasing on spreads, you can put together parlays that will win and still have good value.

This week, our parlay uses odds from Caesars Sportsbook. One thing to like about Caesars is that each game has a tool that makes it easy to tease the spread. Also, any new users at Caesars get a bonus bet of up to $1,000 if they lose their first wager. In other words, you can put together a valuable parlay knowing that if you miss, you get a bonus bet equal to your wager, giving you a second chance to make a winning wager and get off to a promising start. Of course, we plan on this parlay extending our winning streak to four straight weeks. At Caesars, the odds for this parlay are currently +580.

After placing your bets at Caesars this week, make sure you learn how to stream NFL Week 10 games for free on the Caesars platform. By streaming games live at Caesars, it’s much easier to track your bets. Also, it’s never a bad time to check out the current Super Bowl LIX odds and see what teams are trending in the right direction. For now, let’s take a closer look at the picks in our Week 10 NFL parlay.

Broncos vs. Chiefs -6.5  (-173) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Last season, the Broncos finally snapped a 16-game losing streak against the Chiefs. However, they’ve still lost eight consecutive trips to Kansas City, never beating Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead. Of those eight games, only one was decided by less than seven points. After the drubbing the Broncos took on the road against the Ravens last week, there isn’t much reason to be optimistic that they can stay close with the Chiefs, which is why we only had to tease this spread under a touchdown.

As for the Chiefs, going to overtime with the Bucs on Monday night was something of an aberration. Prior to that, Kansas City had won four games in a row by at least seven points. Even when some games have been closer than expected, the Chiefs find a way to win by at least a touchdown. The Broncos might be able to give the Chiefs a run for their money this week, but Kansas City should find some separation in the second half and win by at least a touchdown.

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Patriots vs. Bears ML (-305) at Caesars Sportsbook 

There aren’t too many home teams that look like a safe pick this week. We also don’t trust that much to cover the spread after back-to-back losses. However, the Bears are perfect at home, which is why taking Chicago’s moneyline is good to include in a parlay. Granted, last week’s performance in Arizona wasn’t their finest hour. But if the Bears could have defended that Hail Mary in Washington a little better, they’d be a team that’s won four of its last five games. Admittedly, home wins over the Titans, Rams, and Panthers aren’t overly impressive. But the Chicago defense is strong and the Patriots don’t pose that much of a threat.

New England couldn’t even beat the Titans on the road last week despite some promising signs from Drake Maye. Keep in mind that Maye was the team’s leading rusher last week, which is a bad omen against a stout Chicago defense. The Patriots are averaging just 15.7 points per game, so they aren’t likely to get much higher than that mark this week. That simply won’t be enough points to steal a win, making the Bears a safe pick in Week 10.

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Falcons vs. Saints Over 46.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook 

There is every reason to expect a shootout in this game. Both teams are capable offensively but subpar defensively despite the fact that they are a combined 8-9 O/U. Defensively, the Saints have allowed a minimum of 26 points in five of their last six games. Carolina’s 23 points last week are the only exception to that, which means the Falcons should at least make a strong push for 30 points against the New Orleans defense. The Saints also have Derek Carr back healthy, which should lead to an uptick in their offense, especially with the season Alvin Kamara is putting together.

As for the Falcons, Week 1 is the only time they’ve allowed less than 20 points in a game. They are trending in the right direction with five wins in their last six games. However, the Atlanta defense isn’t exactly the driving force for that success. Instead, it’s been Kirk Cousins and the offense scoring at least 26 points in all five of those wins. That includes a 26-24 win over the Saints earlier this season. If the Falcons are likely to score at least 26 points and concede at least 20 points, the chances are good this game will go over 46.5 points, which has been the case in five of the last seven meetings between these teams.

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Titans vs. Chargers -6.5 (-143) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Betting against the Titans has become rather safe, so we’re going back to that well in Week 10. To their credit, the Titans managed to beat New England last week. But Tennessee is still 2-6 with five of those six losses coming by at least seven points. The Titans rank near the bottom in both points scored and points allowed with no reason to think that will change. Plus, in their last two road games, the Titans have been outscored 86-24. That’s a good indicator that betting against them is the right move.

As for the Chargers, they are 5-3 on the season. All five of those wins have come by at least seven points, which is why we teased the line just a little to bring it under a touchdown. The Los Angeles defense is the best in the NFL, allowing more than 17 points just once this season. In fact, the Chargers have conceded just 35 total points in their three home games. They should have no problem holding the Titans to a low-point total this week. Even without a dynamic offense, the Chargers should be able to win comfortably. They run the ball effectively behind J.K. Dobbins while Justin Herbert has just one interception on the season. The Chargers don’t beat themselves, which is not something that can be said of the Titans. That should equal another win by seven points or more.

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