NFL Week 1 Best Parlay Picks: Fortune Favors the Home Teams

• The Panthers were winless at home last year, putting the Saints in a prime position to win in Week 1.

• The Steelers have created a mess in Pittsburgh, making a Week 1 win hard to believe.

• Behind Josh Allen, the Bills are a safe bet to manage a win in the season opener.

The first week of the NFL season is always tricky when it comes to making picks. We think we know what teams are set up for success and what teams aren’t. But there are usually a few surprises. With that in mind, we decided to tread carefully when putting together a parlay for Week 1. However, even though we’re playing it safe, there is still good value with this parlay.

The odds for our parlay are coming from Caesars Sportsbook, which is giving first-time customers a bonus bet of up to $1,000 if they lose their first bet after signing up. As for our four-leg Week 1 parlay, the Caesars odds are currently +656.

If you decide to bet with Caesars, don’t forget to learn how to stream NFL Week 1 games for free at Caesars Sportsbook. Also, even though our parlay picks all involve Week 1 games, now is also a good time to check out our breakdown of Super Bowl LIX odds and the top contenders.

Saints ML vs. Panthers (-210) at Caesars Sportsbook 

It’s fair to question how improved the Panthers will be this season. On the Carolina offense, the supporting cast around Bryce Young isn’t particularly impressive. Keep in mind the Panthers were 0-9 on the road last season, including a 1-7-1 record against the spread in those games. They’ve also won just twice in their last nine trips to New Orleans, making it easy to back the New Orleans moneyline in this game.

That being said, we don’t like the Saints enough to believe they can cover more than a field goal. There are some lingering questions about Derek Carr and company. That being said, the Saints have a talented offensive line and look solid on defense. They were also 5-2 straight up when favored at home last season. That makes us confident in a New Orleans win, so we’ll begin our Week 1 parlay with the Saints’ moneyline.

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Falcons -3 vs. Steelers (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook 

We might be drinking the Atlanta Kool-Aid a little too much with this pick. Keep in mind Kirk Cousins is coming off a serious injury last season. But the Falcons had so many pieces in place other than the quarterback position last season, so with the arrival of Cousins, they should be able to hit the ground running in 2024. That could be taken literally because Bijan Robinson has an excellent offensive line in front of him, taking some of the early pressure off Cousins.

Meanwhile, the Steelers look like an absolute mess. Russell Wilson practically won the quarterback battle by default because Justin Fields wasn’t particularly good in the preseason either. Keep in mind the Steelers are starting two rookies on the offensive line and lost their second-leading receiver from last season. The supporting cast around Wilson isn’t helping Pittsburgh’s argument for early-season success. With just a field goal to cover, we’ll back the Falcons to cover.

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Bills ML vs. Cardinals (-267) at Caesars Sportsbook 

It would be more than a little shocking if the Bills were to lose at home in Week 1. That being said, the roster underwent too many changes during the offseason to believe they can cover the spread. Luckily, a parlay makes it easy to hedge our bets with a moneyline pick or two. The Bills were 8-2 at home last season and they still have Josh Allen at quarterback. He’ll do his part to prevent a Week 1 disaster.

After all, it’s not as if the Cardinals are without questions. They were just 2-7 on the road in 2023. Arizona is also a West Coast team that’s playing an early game on the East Coast. There is years worth of evidence telling us that’s a bad spot for the Cardinals. Even if Kyler Murray can get the Arizona offense back on track, the Cardinals had the 31st-ranked defense in the league last year. That side of the ball still has too many questions to pull off a Week 1 upset of the Bills.

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Patriots vs. Bengals Over 40.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook 

This isn’t Bill Belichick’s defense in New England anymore. Even if Jerod Mayo is a disciple of Belichick, the Patriots are bound to take a step back on the side of the ball. That will be particularly true with their Week 1 game coming on the road against a potentially potent Cincinnati offense. Joe Burrow is back and still has Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who figure to give New England’s secondary plenty of problems and help the Bengals score plenty of points in Week 1. After all, they are almost double-digit favorites in this game.

Of course, the Cincinnati defense is nothing special, finishing in the middle of the pack last season. The Bengals might need to score close to 30 points to cover the spread in this game, which points to the over. In fairness, the Patriots have plenty of questions on offense. However, starting Jacoby Brissett in Week 1 is even more reason to take the over because he has enough experience to find some success against a modest Cincinnati defense. Surely, the Patriots won’t get shut out in Week 1, which is why this bet is in our parlay.

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