Best NFL Parlay Picks for Divisional Round: Take Advantage of Inflated Over/Under Numbers

• Five of the six games during the Wild Card Round stayed under the point total.

• The Rams have held four of their last five opponents under 10 points.

• Baltimore has allowed 17 points or less in five straight games.

For this week’s parlay, the odds are going to come from Caesars Sportsbook. Not only is Caesars a well-known entity with competitive odds, but it also makes it easier to tease lines and create parlays. Also, new Caesars will find a great welcome offer right now. By placing a $1 bet, you’ll receive a set of ten 100% profit boosts. That means after your first bet, the profit on your next 10 bets will double - at least if you win those bets. Of course, without any help from a boost, our four-leg parlay at Caesars for the Divisional Round currently has odds of +683.

The NFL playoffs are down to the final eight teams. With just four games during the Divisional Round this weekend, there aren’t many options when it comes to putting together a parlay. However, we’re going to do just that with each game contributing one leg of a four-leg parlay. Like the playoffs, defense will be the key to this parlay. The over/under totals look a little inflated for the Divisional Round because there are so many great offensive teams left. However, we believe this week’s playoff games will be a little more cagey and low-scoring than most folks expect.

After signing up with Caesars and creating your parlay for this week, make sure you learn how to stream NFL Divisional Round games for free on the Caesars platform. Doing this will make it easier to track any bets you have and perhaps make some live bets as well. Meanwhile, now that we’re down to eight teams, now is a good time to look closely at the current Super Bowl LIX odds and find what team offers the most value. In the meantime, here is a breakdown of our four-leg parlay for the Divisional Round.

Texans +10.5 (-158) vs. Chiefs at Caesars Sportsbook 

This is the one game this week that we’re not betting the under on the point total. The Houston offense looked too good last week against the Chargers, who had the top defense in the NFL during the regular season. While the defense and special teams helped the Texans get to 32 points, they still racked up over 400 yards of offense and had great balance. Even against another quality defensive team on the road, there’s a decent chance C.J. Stroud and company can hold their own. In fact, the Texans should play well enough to keep this game within 10 points.

These teams met in December in Kansas City with the Texans only losing 27-19 despite the Chiefs being +2 on turnovers. Since that game, the Houston defense has stepped up its play, helping give the Texans a ton of confidence heading into the Divisional Round. Meanwhile, the Chiefs were just 7-9-1 against the spread this season, including 0-5-1 when favored by seven points or more. The spread for this game is already more than a touchdown, but we’ll tease the spread just a little to get it over 10 points, giving the Texans a little more leeway as they try to stay within striking distance of a huge upset.

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Commanders vs. Lions Under 60.5 (-208) at Caesars Sportsbook 

It’s natural for a game involving the Lions to have a high over/under. But an over/under of 55.5 points is a little too high. Just to be safe, we’ve teased that number up to 60.5 points and bet on the under. Granted, the Lions had five games this season that ended with more than 60 points. But they also had a top-10 defense during the regular season. Plus, with five of the six Wild Card games staying under the point total, look for more games to end with fewer points than expected.

The Commanders faced a rather modest Tampa defense on the road last week, only to finish with just 23 points. While Jayden Daniels has proven to be great in the clutch, the Washington offense wasn’t exactly clicking for four quarters. In fact, outside of Daniels using his legs, the Commanders struggled to run the ball. Unless that changes, Washington will have a hard time going beyond 20 points, making it unlikely for there to be more than 60 points in this game. On the other hand, if the Commanders do get their running game going, they can control the clock, reducing the possessions for both teams. Either way, a full-blown shootout looks unlikely for this game.

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Rams vs. Eagles Under 45.5 (-152) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Both of these teams have excelled down the stretch thanks to their defense. To be fair, they combined for 57 total points in an earlier meeting. But that game is something of an aberration. The Philadelphia defense has limited opponents to 20 points or less in nine of its last 10 games. That includes giving up 13 points or less in four of their last five games. Likewise, the Rams have held four of their last five opponents below 10 points. That includes giving up just nine points to the Vikings in the Wild Card Round.

In other words, it’s going to be difficult for both offenses to move the ball consistently and sustain drives. The weather conditions in Philadelphia in the middle of January aren’t exactly conducive to aggressive play-calling or passes down the field. Also, both teams are loaded with front-seven talent that can slow down the run and create negative plays. Outside of the high-scoring affair that these teams played in ideal playing conditions in November, all signs point to a defensive slugfest in which both teams struggle to reach 20 points. That makes us confident in taking the under, although we teased the number up a few points just to be safe.

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Ravens vs. Bills Under 51.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook 

There is no need to tease the over/under in this game. The Bills and Ravens aren’t going to come close to reaching 50 total points. Obviously, oddsmakers believe that with the two leading NFL MVP candidates facing one another, each offense will run wild. However, this game isn’t going to be played inside a vacuum or in pristine conditions. By Sunday night, it will be cold and snowy in Buffalo, hindering the efforts of both offenses. Keep in mind that these teams also played a playoff game in Buffalo four years ago that ended with just 20 total points. 

Aside from the weather conditions limiting the offensive fireworks, each team’s defense deserves some credit. The Buffalo defense is a lot healthier now than it was when the Bills gave up 35 points against the Ravens earlier this season. The Bills also gave up just 16.4 points per game at home this season. Meanwhile, the Ravens have arguably had the best defense in the NFL down the stretch. They’ve held their last five opponents to 17 points or less, including three games against playoff teams. The kicker is that both teams are comfortable running the ball and using their quarterback to run the ball. That will run the clock and limit the possessions in this game, which is why this game is unlikely to end with more than 50 points.

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