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Best Parlay Picks for NFL Conference Championship Games: Bank on High Scoring Weekend

Published January 22, 2025
7 min read
  • The Commanders have scored at least 20 points in eight straight games, being held below 20 points just twice in 19 games this season. 

  • The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread this season when favored by five points or less.

  • Seven of the last Bills-Chiefs games have ended with at least 43 total points.

For our conference championship game parlay, we’re going to get our odds from Caesars Sportsbook. With Caesars, you’ll get a well-known and trusted brand, as well as a sportsbook with competitive odds and tools that make it easy to create a parlay. Caesars also has an intriguing welcome offer right now that allows new users to place a $1 bet and receive a set of ten 100% profit boosts. With these profit boosts, you’ll be able to double your profit on your next 10 bets. For our parlay, before any type of profit boosts, Caesars has odds of +373.

Once you sign up with Caesars and set up your parlay, the next step is to learn how to stream NFL Conference Championship games for free on the Caesars platform. That way, you can track all of the bets in your parlay closely during the games while leaving the door open for live bets. Of course, now that only four teams are left, this is a great time to look at the current Super Bowl LIX odds and find what team offers the most value. In the meantime, here is a breakdown of our four-leg parlay for the Conference Championship games.

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Best NFL Parlay Picks Conference Round

The NFL is down to its final four teams with the conference championship games scheduled for this Sunday. Needless to say, that’s going to make it difficult to put together a parlay with fewer options. However, sometimes having fewer options can help you focus a little more on those specific games.

After a close examination of the two conference championship games, we’ve put together a parlay that has both games being close and having plenty of offense. Such a scenario would be great in terms of entertainment value and great for our parlay.

Commanders +10.5 (-218) vs. Eagles at Caesars Sportsbook 

After last week’s stunning and convincing win over the Lions, it’s hard not to back the Commanders this week. After all, we’re barely a month removed from the Commanders beating the Eagles in Week 16. To be fair, that game was in Washington and this week the Commanders will have to play in Philadelphia, a place they lost 26-18 early in the season. That’s why we’ve teased the spread a little to give the Commanders a little bit of a cushion just in case the Eagles pull away late. However, Washington should make this a competitive game from start to finish while also having a chance to pull off another upset.

At the moment, the Eagles don’t look like a team that’s going to win the NFC Championship Game by a wide margin. Even with a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter against the Rams, they nearly found a way to lose while failing to cover the spread. Granted, it was a little tempting to take Philadelphia’s moneyline because the Eagles should find a way to survive at home. However, there is more value in betting on the Commanders to keep the final score within 10 points.

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Commanders vs. Eagles Over 44.5 (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook 

If last month’s 36-33 game between these teams was any indication, there are bound to be plenty of points in the NFC Championship Game. We still teased the point total a little, but not much because we feel confident that both teams will move the ball with ease. Even in a snowstorm last week, the Eagles and Rams hit the over. The conditions in Philadelphia this week should be a little more favorable, allowing both offenses to open up their playbook.

For what it’s worth, the Eagles are just one or two teams to hold the Commanders below 20 points this season. However, that Week 11 loss was the last time Washington failed to reach at least 20 points. The way Jayden Daniels has played lately, a minimum of 20 points from the Commanders seems like a safe bet. At the same time, everybody knows that Washington’s defense isn’t its strength, especially with the way Saquon Barkley has played lately. As long as the Commanders continue to score at least 20 points, there is virtually no way for this game not to end with at least 45 total points.

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Bills +6.5 (-238) vs. Chiefs at Caesars Sportsbook 

With the way the Chiefs have eked out close games and failed to cover the spread all season, there is almost no way Kansas City can win by a comfortable margin. This might be Buffalo’s best chance to get over the hump against the Chiefs. Of course, the Chiefs are 6-1 against the spread this season when favored by five points or less. In this game, they only have to win by a field goal to cover the spread. If you feel confident in the Chiefs, Kansas City’s moneyline provides more value than Buffalo with a 6.5-point cushion.

That being said, the Bills have a chance to win this game, which is why it might be safer to tease Buffalo’s line a little. Based on the history between these teams, the game could easily be decided by three or four points. But if it goes to overtime, the Chiefs could easily win the toss and score right away, giving them a six-point win. That’s why we teased the line to 6.5 points. Even if the game ends in regulation, it’d be surprising to see the Chiefs win by a touchdown or more.

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Bills vs. Chiefs Over 42.5 (-228) at Caesars Sportsbook 

In the eight games contested between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, all but one has ended with at least 43 points. That is one reason why we’ve teased the over/under down to 42.5 points. The other reason is that the under has won in six of Kansas City’s last seven games. During that stretch, their Week 18 game against the Broncos when they rested some key players is the only time they’ve failed to hold a team below 20 points. That indicates that the true over/under of 47.5 points might be too high.

That being said, Allen and the Bills scored 30 points against the Chiefs earlier this season, albeit at home. They have the pieces around Allen, a serious NFL MVP candidate, to score against a talented Kansas City defense. Meanwhile, the Bills showed some holes in last week’s win over the Ravens. If not for a few forced turnovers, they likely would have given up over 30 points and lost the game. There are also some injury concerns in the Buffalo secondary. Those factors point to a high-scoring AFC Championship Game regardless of Kansas City’s defensive prowess this season.

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Bryan Zarpentine WSN Contributor

Bryan Zarpentine

Sports Betting Analyst

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Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.
Email: [email protected]
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts
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Experience: 14 years
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