The Lions beat the Packers 24-14 at Lambeau on Nov. 3
The Lions are 9-3 against the spread, while the Packers are 6-6
Both teams got equal rest since both played on Thanksgiving
The Green Bay Packers (9-3) are taking on the Detroit Lions (11-1) in an NFC North rivalry matchup that is full of playoff implications on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 14.
The Packers are somehow third in their division despite having the fourth-best record in the NFC, while the Lions are riding a 10-game win streak but are still only one game clear of the Minnesota Vikings. We have the best Packers vs. Vikings betting picks for you as the NFL returns to TVs everywhere on TNF.
The following odds for the Packers vs Lions matchup are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users can receive $150 in bonus bets after placing and winning a $5 wager.
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Green Bay Packers | +3.5 (-118) | +150 | Over 51.5 (-110) |
Detroit Lions | -3.5 (-104) | -178 | Under 51.5 (-110) |
The Packers might not garner the same respect as the Lions or the Vikings, or be in the headlines as much as the Chicago Bears, but they methodically go about their business and are incredibly solid. Their three losses this season are to the Eagles by five points, the Vikings by two points, and the Lions by 10 points one month ago.
Jordan Love has a serious interception problem but did not turn the ball over in back-to-back games. That’s promising seeing as he went 23/39 for 273 yards, no touchdowns, and an INT in his previous matchup with the Lions. Josh Jacobs also had strong performances recently, including when he gained 95 yards in only 13 carries against Detroit, and he racked up at least 95 rushing yards in three of his last five outings.
On the other side are the Lions, whose physicality and array of talent make them one of the most dangerous teams in the league. They get to play this game in their building, where QB Jared Goff threw 12 touchdowns to only three interceptions, and they averaged 162 rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest mark in the league.
Detroit is more than just a dominant offense, however. It leads the league in defensive EPA per play (-.115), whereas Green Bay, which is having its best defensive season in years, is 10th at -.040.
My Pick: Lions Spread -3.5 (-104) at FanDuel
The Packers likely do not have the respect from the national media that they deserve, but the Lions are a juggernaut. They went 9-3 against the spread despite being favored in all but one game thus far and just forced Love into being a nonfactor in an environment that should have favored him.
With the Eagles pouring on the pressure and Detroit being comfortable back at home, this is a nice spot to get the favorites.
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Love averaged 251.8 passing yards per game and went over this line in three of his last four games, including one against the Lions on Nov. 3, when he went for 273 yards. The Lions are going to score points, which should force Love to throw the ball.
Detroit does not usually give up many passing yards but should be prepared for a shootout with a hungry division rival and a strong-armed QB who is willing to make mistakes if it means he’ll also make big plays down the field.
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Good—no, great things happen when Gibbs touches the ball. But despite that, he went under this line in four of his last six games, including the reverse fixture against the Packers, when he took 11 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown.
As productive as Gibbs is, he’s still behind David Montgomery in overall usage and only got nine carries to his teammate’s 21 last week. The Packers were killed on the ground the last time they played and should be better prepared not only for the Lions’ ground attack, but also to control the time of possession with more runs of their own.
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Williams is nowhere near the primary option in the Lions offense, but he’s coming off of an excellent game against the LA Rams, during which he caught five passes for 121 yards and a touchdown, and he crossed the pylons in three of five home games thus far.
The Lions are more comfortable opening up their playbook and taking shots down the field at home. That’s exactly where they are going to be on Thursday, and Williams quietly has the production and the momentum coming off of a great game to warrant the risk.
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When: Thursday, Dec. 5 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
The Lions are favored by three or 3.5 points at the majority of NFL betting sites.
Packers bettors will find the best deal at bet365, BetMGM, and Caesars, where they are +3.5 (-115).
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Packers Injuries
Josh Jacobs (RB) - Questionable (calf)
Romeo Doubs (WR) - Questionable (concussion)
Jaire Alexander (CB)- Questionable (knee)
Edgerrin Cooper (LB) - Questionable (hamstring)
Elgton Jenkins (G) - Questionable
Lions Injuries
Taylor Decker (OT) - Questionable (knee)
Kosh Paschal (DE) - Questionable (knee)
DJ Reader (DT) - Questionable (shoulder)
Malcolm Rodriguez (LB) - Out (knee)
Alex Anzalone (LB) - Out (forearm)
Thursday Night Football Week 14 Picks
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