NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions & Odds 2024: Derrick Henry Leading Saquon Barkley in Two-Horse Race

• Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey were neck and neck for Offensive Player of the Year honors throughout the 2023 season with McCaffrey ultimately winning the award.

• Non-quarterbacks have won OPOTY every year since Patrick Mahomes won the award in 2018.

• Peyton Manning in 2013 was the last player to win multiple Offensive Player of the Year awards.

The Offensive Player of the Year award is one of the more unique awards in the NFL. It differs from the MVP and is largely considered the highest individual honor outside of winning MVP. Rather than worrying about the value a player brings or his team’s success, the award is typically given to a player who dominated on the field but was perhaps overlooked as an MVP candidate for one reason or another.

A race that looked wide open early in the season appears to be quickly dwindling to two candidates. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Henry is the current favorite. Of course, Henry has been the betting favorite for several weeks. However, Saquon Barkley is very much within striking distance. Meanwhile, the top wide receivers in the NFL have started to fall out of favor as far as the Offensive Player of the Year race is concerned.

That being said, we’re just barely past the midway point of the season. There is a lot of football to play and anything can happen. It’s far from a certainty that OPOTY will come down to Henry and Barkley. There is still time for a sleeper to make a serious run. That’s why we wanted to check in with some of the top contenders to see where they stand in the Offensive Player of the Year race 10 weeks into the 2024 NFL season.

AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds in the table below to place your beys at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

Favorites to Win AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Before making a bet on Offensive Player of the Year, it’s important to take a close look at some of the leading favorites and where they currently stand.

Derrick Henry - Running Back, Baltimore Ravens (-140) at FanDuel

Believe it or not, Henry is showing signs of slowing down in the middle of the season. He’s failed to reach 100 rushing yards in two of the last three weeks. By his standards, that’s a big deal. Of course, he has still scored four rushing touchdowns during that stretch. Also his odds to be Offensive Player of the Year have shrunk from +150 to -140 over the last two weeks. The bottom line is that he has a sizable lead for the rushing title and has four more rushing touchdowns than every other player other than Jalen Hurts. Henry also has an outside shot of reaching 2,000 yards, so he’s undoubtedly the leader of the pack in the OPOTY race right now.

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Saquon Barkley - Running Back, Philadelphia Eagles (+310) at FanDuel

As was the case two weeks ago, Barkley has the best chance of catching Henry. His odds have shrunk slightly over the past two weeks from +360 to +310, so he’s not falling too far behind. Barkley’s problem is that after three straight 100-yard rushing games, the Eagles didn’t need his services too much to blowout the Cowboys in Week 10. Also, his contributions as a pass-catcher continue to be limited. If that continues to be the case, Barkley can’t continue to lag behind Henry in both rushing yards and touchdowns. Nevertheless, he figures to be a factor in the OPOTY race down the stretch.

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Justin Jefferson - Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings (+700) at FanDuel

Jefferson is holding steady in the OPOTY discussion. He had +650 odds after Week 8 and now sits at +700 after Week 10. Unfortunately, holding steady isn’t going to be good enough with Henry and Barkley ahead of him. Jefferson and the entire Minnesota offense had a lackluster game in Week 10. That was a clear step back in the OPOTY race for him. The good news is that we know Jefferson is an elite receiver who can perform at a high level over a long stretch. But he must reach that next level during the second half of the season to stay in this race.

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Ja’Marr Chase - Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals (+1300) at FanDuel

Chase had perhaps the greatest game of his career in Week 10, catching 11 passes for 263 yards and three touchdowns, albeit in a losing effort. Coming out of Week 10, Chase now leads all receivers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Unfortunately, his OPOTY odds only moved from +1400 to +1300. That’s because that was the first game in nearly a month that Chase had more than 55 receiving yards in a game. Obviously, Chase isn’t going to replicate his Week 10 performance in every game. But if he can use that game as a springboard for the rest of the season, Chase will become an interesting sleeper to watch in the Offensive Player of the Year race.

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Lamar Jackson - Quarterback, Baltimore Ravens (+1300) at FanDuel

Jackson is becoming something of a wild card in the OPOTY race. Keep in mind that he’s also the MVP frontrunner right now, so it’s unlikely that he’d win both awards. Yet, his odds to be Offensive Player of the Year moved from +1700 after Week 8 to +1300 after Week 10. Over his last four games, he has 14 touchdown passes and no interceptions. When you factor in his ability to make plays with his legs, it’s clear that Jackson is no ordinary quarterback. At this point, it’s still hard to believe he could win both awards, especially since he would have to surpass his backfield mate for OPOTY. But it’s not the craziest idea, so Jackson is someone to keep watching.

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Who Will Win 2024 Offensive Player of the Year

My Pick - Derrick Henry (-140) at FanDuel

A couple of subpar games over the last few weeks isn’t enough to make us jump off Henry’s bandwagon. Even with -140 odds, there is decent value in betting on the frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year. Granted, Barkley is right there if Henry continues to dip below the high bar he’s set for himself this season. However, he still plays for the top offense in the NFL and is going to get the vast majority of carries for the Ravens moving forward. At this point, it’s still hard to envision anything but an injury preventing Henry from ending up as the Offensive Player of the Year.

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Who Won the AP Offensive Player of the Year in 2023?

Christian McCaffrey won the 2023 AP Offensive Player of the Year award. Tyreek Hill finished second and CeeDee Lamb third with Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott rounding out the top-five. It was McCaffrey’s first time winning the award, and it was well deserved. He led the NFL in rushing yards, total yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns by scoring 14 rushing and seven receiving touchdowns during the regular season.

AP Offensive Player of the Year History

The first AP Offensive Player of the Year honor was awarded in 1972 to running back Larry Brown of the team now known as the Washington Commanders. 17 of the last 26 players to win the OPOTY have been non-quarterbacks, including the last four. 

The only positions to win the Offensive Player of the Year award are quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. That means no offensive linemen, fullbacks, or tight ends has ever won the award.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Before you can make a winning bet for Offensive Player of the Year, you must first find the best sportsbook. Many bettors forget this stop, which can be a mistake. Various online sportsbooks may have different odds, different promos, and different features, so you have to do your research. 

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How to Read NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Unless there is a heavy favorite, every Offensive Player of the Year candidate will have plus (+) odds listed next to their name. This means that you will profit more than you bet if your choice wins OPOTY. For instance, if you bet $100 on a player with +400 odds, the profit will be $400. In rare cases, a heavy favorite will have negative (-) odds. For example, if a player has -200 odds, you will have to bet $200 in order to make a profit of $100.