NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions & Odds 2024: Saquon Barkley Extending Lead Over Ja’Marr Chase and Derrick Henry

• Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey were neck and neck for Offensive Player of the Year honors throughout the 2023 season with McCaffrey ultimately winning the award

• Non-quarterbacks have won OPOTY every year since Patrick Mahomes won the award in 2018

• Peyton Manning in 2013 was the last player to win multiple Offensive Player of the Year awards

The Offensive Player of the Year award is one of the more unique awards in the NFL. It differs from the MVP and is largely considered the highest individual honor outside of winning MVP. Rather than worrying about the value a player brings or his team’s success, the award is typically given to a player who dominated on the field but was perhaps overlooked as an MVP candidate for one reason or another.

During the first half of the season, Derrick Henry looked poised to literally run away with the award and possibly put himself in the MVP discussion. But over the past month, it’s been Saquon Barkley taking control. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Barkley is now the clear frontrunner to win Offensive Player of the Year. Of course, Henry is still in the mix while Ja’Marr Chase refuses to go away. Josh Allen has also made a late run while also being an MVP candidate. 

Even with plenty of competition from Chase, Henry, and others, as we move into the final four weeks of the season, time is running out for somebody to catch Barkley. That being said, the race isn’t over yet. It’s still worth taking a close look at the top contenders for Offensive Player of the Year. We’re also going to share our pick for the best bet with four weeks left in the season.

AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds in the table below to place your beys at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

Favorites to Win AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Before making a bet on Offensive Player of the Year, it’s important to take a close look at some of the leading favorites and where they currently stand.

Saquon Barkley - Running Back, Philadelphia Eagles (-450) at FanDuel

Barkley continues to extend his lead for OPOTY. His odds have moved from -320 to -450 over the past weeks. In fact, Barkley is even putting himself in the MVP discussion. If that’s the case, it’s going to be hard for him to be denied Offensive Player of the Year honors since he’s clearly the best non-quarterback in the league. The Eagles are riding Barkley a lot down the stretch, as he’s had 20-plus carries in four straight games, going over 100 yards in each game. Even with his usage in the passing game declining over the past month, Barkley is putting up eye-catching numbers. He’s the NFL’s leading rusher with a cushion of more than 200 yards and is the only running back averaging more than six yards per carry. Other than facing the Steelers in Week 15, Barkley and the Eagles won’t face a top-tier defense the rest of the season, making it hard to believe that anything can slow down Barkley at this point.

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Ja’Marr Chase - Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals (+600) at FanDuel

Over the past month, Chase has had two games that were almost unbelievable. First, there was his 11-catch, 264-yard, and three-touchdown performance against the Ravens. In Week 14, Chase torched the Cowboys for 177 yards and two touchdowns on 14 catches. Those types of performances make a compelling case for Chase to be Offensive Player of the Year. Chase leads the league in receptions while his 15 receiving touchdowns lead the league by a wide margin. He’s also the only receiver averaging more than 100 receiving yards per game, putting him on pace to finish with over 1,700 receiving yards. The caveat is that Chase hasn’t been as consistent as Barkley this season. But if puts together a couple more eye-popping performances, Chase can still make a great case for Offensive Player of the Year.

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Derrick Henry - Running Back, Baltimore Ravens (+900) at FanDuel

It’s crazy to think how far Henry has fallen in the OPOTY race. In the last two weeks alone, his odds have fallen from +300 to +900. Keep in mind that’s for a player who is on pace for over 1,800 rushing yards who also leads all running backs in touchdowns and gains of 20 yards or more. Yet, Henry has undoubtedly faded during the second half of the season. He’s been held to 82 yards or less in three of his last four games and failed to find the end zone in back-to-back games. Compared to what Barkley has done over the past month, it’s a little easier to understand why Henry has struggled to keep pace in the OPOTY race. However, if Henry can come back from Baltimore’s Week 14 bye and regain the form he had early in the season, he can still be a serious factor in the Offensive Player of the Year conversation.

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Josh Allen - Quarterback, Buffalo Bills (+1500) at FanDuel

Over the last month, Allen has seized the lead in the MVP race. Yet, he’s been so good that he’s also become a sleeper in the Offensive Player of the Year discussion. That’s what happens when you score five total touchdowns, albeit in a losing effort, the way Allen did against the Rams in Week 14. Allen has six passing touchdowns in his last three games and six rushing touchdowns in his last four games. On top of that, he had that receiving touchdown on a memorable play against the 49ers. If Allen can continue to turn heads over the next month, there could be an argument that he deserves to win MVP and Offensive Player of the Year this season.

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Justin Jefferson - Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings (+5500) at FanDuel

With 132 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Week 14, Jefferson isn’t completely done in the OPOTY race. Admittedly, he’s a deep sleeper with +5500 odds. But he’s on pace for over 1,500 receiving yards and is capable of putting together some spectacular performances like the ones we’ve seen from Chase over the past month. The catch is that Jefferson might need four spectacular performances during the final four games of the season if he’s going to overtake Barkley, Chase, Henry, and Allen in the OPOTY race.

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Who Will Win 2024 Offensive Player of the Year

My Pick - Ja’Marr Chase (+600) at FanDuel

While Barkley is awfully close to wrapping up Offensive Player of the Year, it’s not a done deal yet. He also lacks value, which is why Chase is worth a shot with +600 odds. Granted, he’s going to need a few more games in which he goes off for 150-plus yards and multiple touchdowns. But the Bengals are going to keep throwing him the ball every chance they get, so Chase will have more opportunities to shine. Admittedly, this is still something of a long shot. But with four weeks left in the season, Chase has given himself a fighting chance and offers more value compared to Barkley’s short odds.

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Who Won the AP Offensive Player of the Year in 2023?

Christian McCaffrey won the 2023 AP Offensive Player of the Year award. Tyreek Hill finished second and CeeDee Lamb third with Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott rounding out the top-five. It was McCaffrey’s first time winning the award, and it was well deserved. He led the NFL in rushing yards, total yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns by scoring 14 rushing and seven receiving touchdowns during the regular season.

AP Offensive Player of the Year History

The first AP Offensive Player of the Year honor was awarded in 1972 to running back Larry Brown of the team now known as the Washington Commanders. 17 of the last 26 players to win the OPOTY have been non-quarterbacks, including the last four. 

The only positions to win the Offensive Player of the Year award are quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. That means no offensive linemen, fullbacks, or tight ends has ever won the award.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Before you can make a winning bet for Offensive Player of the Year, you must first find the best sportsbook. Many bettors forget this stop, which can be a mistake. Various online sportsbooks may have different odds, different promos, and different features, so you have to do your research. 

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How to Read NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Unless there is a heavy favorite, every Offensive Player of the Year candidate will have plus (+) odds listed next to their name. This means that you will profit more than you bet if your choice wins OPOTY. For instance, if you bet $100 on a player with +400 odds, the profit will be $400. In rare cases, a heavy favorite will have negative (-) odds. For example, if a player has -200 odds, you will have to bet $200 in order to make a profit of $100.