NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions & Odds 2024: Saquon Barkley Close to Wrapping Up Award

• Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey were neck and neck for Offensive Player of the Year honors throughout the 2023 season with McCaffrey ultimately winning the award

• Non-quarterbacks have won OPOTY every year since Patrick Mahomes won the award in 2018

• Peyton Manning in 2013 was the last player to win multiple Offensive Player of the Year awards

The Offensive Player of the Year award is one of the more unique awards in the NFL. It differs from the MVP and is largely considered the highest individual honor outside of winning MVP. Rather than worrying about the value a player brings or his team’s success, the award is typically given to a player who dominated on the field but was perhaps overlooked as an MVP candidate for one reason or another.

With two weeks left in the 2024 season, Saquon Barkley is close to wrapping up Offensive Player of the Year honors. He might even have a chance to win MVP depending on how the season ends. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Barkley is a heavy favorite. He has long since left Derrick Henry in the dust despite Henry being the betting favorite during the first half of the season. Yet, Ja’Marr Chase is still finding a way to stay in the conversation.

While the odds say that Barkley is on the verge of winning OPOTY, betting is still available and votes have yet to be cast. That means it’s still worth going over where the top contenders stand in the Offensive Player of the Year discussion. We’ll also share whether or not it’s worthwhile to put your money on Barkley.

AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds in the table below to place your beys at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

Favorites to Win AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Before making a bet on Offensive Player of the Year, it’s important to take a close look at some of the leading favorites and where they currently stand.

Saquon Barkley - Running Back, Philadelphia Eagles (-1500) at FanDuel

Every week, Barkley seems to make it more obvious that he is the only choice for Offensive Player of the Year. Even in a losing effort against the Commanders in Week 16, he rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns. His odds over the past two weeks have shifted from -450 to -1500, making him the overwhelming favorite. He’s less than 200 yards from 2,000 rushing yards on the season and has the rushing lead by more than 200 yards. Unless he falls flat on his face over the final two weeks of the season, it’s hard to envision anything preventing Barkley from winning Offensive Player of the Year.

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Ja’Marr Chase - Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals (+800) at FanDuel

Chase might be the only player who can catch Barkley at this point. While Barkley is the league’s rushing leader, Chase has that distinction among wide receivers, racking up over 1,500 yards thus far. He’s also the leader in receptions while his 16 receiving touchdowns are far more than anyone else. Despite falling a little short of 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games, Chase is still averaging more than 100 yards per game. If he can finish the season averaging over 100 receiving yards per game while scoring a few more touchdowns, he will have an argument for OPOTY honors. There is also a high risk-high reward scenario for Chase in Week 17 when he goes up against Patrick Surtain II and the Broncos. A strong performance against one of the best corners and defenses in the NFL could boost his chances.

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Derrick Henry - Running Back, Baltimore Ravens (+4000) at FanDuel

With 162 yards on the ground in Week 16, Henry is trying to make one final push for Offensive Player of the Year. After all, he was the betting favorite for much of the season. However, his odds have fallen from +900 to +4000 just in the past two weeks. He’ll need to have two monster games and start finding the end zone again during the final two games of the season. Henry is 364 yards away from a 2,000-yard season. If he can somehow get to that number and lead the league in rushing touchdowns, he might be capable of generating late-season support.

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Josh Allen - Quarterback, Buffalo Bills (+5000) at FanDuel

Since he is starting to look like a safe bet to win MVP, Allen probably won’t receive Offensive Player of the Year honors as well. But the fact that he’s the MVP favorite and still has the fourth-shortest odds for OPOTY is a testament to the season he’s put together in 2024. Of course, Allen is dealing with an elbow issue, so if the Bills can’t win the top seed in the AFC, they might choose to rest him late in the year, which could hinder his MVP chances and tank his Offensive Player of the Year odds as well.

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Who Will Win 2024 Offensive Player of the Year

My Pick - Ja’Marr Chase (+800) at FanDuel

Barkley is almost surely going to win Offensive Player of the Year. However, it’s hard to find value with his -1500 odds, so the ship on him has sailed. Instead, a small bet with Chase’s +800 odds could be worth a shot. Since he’s clearly separated himself from the rest of the wide receivers in the league, he should be given more of a chance to overtake Barkley. It’s not likely, but it does hold more betting value than a bet on Barkley that will have little pay out.

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Who Won the AP Offensive Player of the Year in 2023?

Christian McCaffrey won the 2023 AP Offensive Player of the Year award. Tyreek Hill finished second and CeeDee Lamb third with Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott rounding out the top-five. It was McCaffrey’s first time winning the award, and it was well deserved. He led the NFL in rushing yards, total yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns by scoring 14 rushing and seven receiving touchdowns during the regular season.

AP Offensive Player of the Year History

The first AP Offensive Player of the Year honor was awarded in 1972 to running back Larry Brown of the team now known as the Washington Commanders. 17 of the last 26 players to win the OPOTY have been non-quarterbacks, including the last four. 

The only positions to win the Offensive Player of the Year award are quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. That means no offensive linemen, fullbacks, or tight ends has ever won the award.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Before you can make a winning bet for Offensive Player of the Year, you must first find the best sportsbook. Many bettors forget this stop, which can be a mistake. Various online sportsbooks may have different odds, different promos, and different features, so you have to do your research. 

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How to Read NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Unless there is a heavy favorite, every Offensive Player of the Year candidate will have plus (+) odds listed next to their name. This means that you will profit more than you bet if your choice wins OPOTY. For instance, if you bet $100 on a player with +400 odds, the profit will be $400. In rare cases, a heavy favorite will have negative (-) odds. For example, if a player has -200 odds, you will have to bet $200 in order to make a profit of $100.