Predicting the 2023 NFL First-Team All-Pro: Offense

The NFL All-Pro team was introduced in 1966 and designed to honor the most outstanding players in the league at every position. 

The first-team All-Pro is a special designation that signifies the NFL’s elite of the elite. Only 11 offensive players find their way onto the yearly list, and it is considered one of the greatest honors in the sport.

With just over a month until the 2023 season begins, here are our picks for the upcoming All-Pro first team. 

2023 First-Team All-Pro Picks at a Glance

• Joe Burrow
• Nick Chubb
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Justin Jefferson
• Calvin Ridley
• Travis Kelce
• Rashawn Slater
• Joel Bitonio
• Creed Humphrey
• Chris Lindstrom
• Penei Sewell

Quarterback: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Looking at his accolades, Burrow is one of the most accomplished three-year players of all time. He went undefeated and won the Heisman and a national championship with LSU, was drafted first overall, has been to two AFC Championships, and appeared in a Super Bowl. A first-team All-Pro nomination is one of the few major accomplishments still missing from his list.

Burrow faces a ton of competition for the first-team spot, mostly in the form of Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. However, if Burrow is going to win the MVP (+700 at BetMGM) and make the first team, this is likely the year he will do it.

Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both up for a new contract at the end of the season, Joe Mixon already came back on a discount, and the Bengals also signed Orlando Brown Jr. to beef up their offensive line. Burrow was fifth in yards and second in touchdowns last season and is poised for a special year.

Running Back: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Chubb is a four-time Pro Bowler and made the second-team All-Pro list in 2022, a year during which he finished third in rushing yards (1,525) and fifth in rushing TDs (12). He’s also put together four straight 1,000-yard seasons and is as consistent of a back as there is in the league. 

One of Chubb’s biggest strengths in the race to land the first-team spot is not actually his personal strength (though he just might be the best RB in the weight room), but the solidity of the Browns’ offensive line. The O-line is, according to Pro Football Focus, the second-best in the league behind only the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Browns gave a quarter of a billion dollars to Deshaun Watson a year ago but did not receive the return on their investment they expected. Watson will have the green light early in the season, but the slightest of struggles will see them default back to a Chubb-dominant approach that will be great for his statistical success.

Wide Receiver: Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals 

Chase has been a catalyst for the Bengals since he showed up two years ago. He went over 1,000 yards receiving in each of those seasons and averages 86.2 yards per game for a career, which translates to 1,466 yards in a 17-game season. He’s also a big-time touchdown threat and has 22 scores in 29 regular-season games.

It comes as a surprise to very few that Chase, who was teammates with Burrow at LSU, has made such a strong impact in Cincy. But he is also the catalyst for his QB and offense as a whole and has produced huge outings in crucial games.

Chase is yet to have a truly monster statistical season, but the consensus is that this version of the Bengals’ offense will be the best yet, and he should be the primary benefactor. He also has the speed and silky-smooth moves to create memorable moments, which are great for voters. 

Wide Receiver: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Jefferson is the reigning AP Offensive Player of the Year and is +1300 to win again (Chase is the favorite at +1000). He also led the league in receiving last year with 1,809 yards and, in three professional seasons, averaged 96.5 yards per game.

Jefferson may be in for a slight step backward with the arrival of first-round draft pick and fellow wideout Jordan Addison, who won the Biletnikoff Award two years ago before transferring to USC. That said, two pairs of teammates—Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith—finished in the top 10 in receiving yards last year, so it’s still possible for Jefferson to continue producing at a high level.

The Vikings likely won’t achieve the same level of success they did in 2022, which is why betting on Jefferson to win the OPOY for the second year running may not be the best idea. But as far as individual talent and the ability to rack up numbers go, there may not be anyone better at the position than Jefferson.

Wide Receiver: Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars

This is undoubtedly the most out-of-left-field pick on our list, but we believe there is a great chance it happens. When last seen in a full season in 2020, Ridley hauled in 90 receptions for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns and earned his way onto the second-team All-Pro sheet.

After a bit of time off for personal reasons and a season-long suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy, Ridley is set to make an enormous impact on the Jaguars’ offense. He’ll slot in behind Christian Kirk, who racked up 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns last season but could usurp him early on.

Ridley also gets to team up with Trevor Lawrence, who is quickly ascending into the conversation for a top-five quarterback in the league. The Jags are also a popular long-shot pick to finish with the AFC’s best record (+1000), and Ridley would be highlighted as the player that helped drive the Jags to a new level if it were to happen.

Tight End: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

There’s simply no question about who the best tight end in the NFL is: it’s Travis Kelce. The 33-year-old is getting up there in age but has avoided major injuries throughout his entire career and is arguably the best he’s ever been coming off of a season in which he caught 110 passes for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Kelce (+3000 to win OPOY) was so dominant as a pass-catcher that he had nearly 150% of the receiving yards of the tight end with the second-most (T.J. Hockenson). He also has seven straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons, which no tight end in league history has come close to.

As if four first-team All-Pros weren’t enough to show that he’s capable of making the list again, he also gets to play with Patrick Mahomes (+650 to win MVP), who is the best quarterback in the league (even if he didn’t make the list). Players like Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Hockenson could make it interesting, but we’re sticking with old reliable.

Left Tackle: Rashawn Slater, Los Angeles Chargers

Allow us this time to address the elephant in the room: Trent Williams is still the best tackle in football until proven otherwise. However, that does not guarantee him a spot on the first team, seeing as he only has two selections despite reaching the Pro Bowl 10 times in his career.

We’re looking at Slater as the pick at left tackle for several reasons. He was totally impressive in his 2021 rookie campaign and looked even better to start 2022 before his season ended in Week 3 with a torn biceps injury. Reports indicate that he is healthy and ready to go, and we expect this to be his true breakout year.

Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert finished second in the league in passing yards in 2022 and also got a new toy in the form of wideout Quentin Johnston in the first round of the draft. Slater, who is brilliant in both pass and run protection, has a golden opportunity to make noise in the league, especially if LA can challenge the Chiefs for the AFC West title.

Left Guard: Joel Bitonio, Cleveland Browns

Bitonio is one of three players that we believe will repeat on the first-team All-Pro (which will actually mark his third straight season on the first team). He’ll be 32 soon but is the Browns’ best offensive lineman and will be instrumental in helping Chubb achieve the success we are predicting.

PFF says that Bitonio’s last three seasons have been the highest-graded ones of his career and that he has been in the top five amongst all guards in each of those. There are also several older interior linemen that are thriving, so we’re not worried about an age-induced decline.

There could be a certain level of voter fatigue at play, but we believe that Bitonio will still get back on the first team as long as the Browns’ line doesn’t totally capitulate.

Center: Creed Humphrey, Kansas City Chiefs

Humphrey and Philadelphia Eagles’ center Jason Kelce are the no-doubt two best centers in the NFL. However, with Kelce checking in at the ripe age of 35 and Humphrey being a more youthful 24, it’s fair to reason that we have not yet seen the best version of the Chiefs’ standout.

Obviously, playing for the defending Super Bowl champions also gives Humphrey a certain level of credibility. He was also on the second-team All-Pro list and made the Pro Bowl last year, so he is fresh in the minds of the voters.

Orlando Brown Jr. left during the offseason, so if the Chiefs’ line still looks as strong as it did last year, if not better, Humphrey is practically a shoo-in to land on one of the teams. 

Right Guard: Chris Lindstrom, Atlanta Falcons

Lindstrom made headway last year, his fourth in the NFL, and made the Pro Bowl and the second-team All-Pro both for the first time in his career. He was a key piece in the Falcons producing the second-best rushing attack in the league and has a chance to be even better in 2023.

Lindstrom’s grade of 95.0 was the best amongst all guards per PFF last season, and he’ll now be blocking for eighth-overall pick Bijan Robinson, plus returning rookie-franchise-record-setter Tyler Allgeier. 

Lindstrom’s greatest asset is his consistency, as he was excellent week in and week out for the Falcons. Barring a major injury, we believe that he will get his flowers this year and make his first first-team All-Pro.

Right Tackle: Penei Sewell, Detroit Lions

Sewell was drafted in the same 2021 class that Slater was in, and we believe both third-year pros will be the book-end linemen on the most coveted roster in the league.

The Lions surpassed all expectations and scored the fifth-most points in the league last season. Sewell was a major part of that, as he consistently locked down the right side of the line as one of the best run-blockers at the position. He also showed improvement in the passing game and allowed just two sacks and seven fewer pressures than the previous season.

The Lions are the odds-on favorites to win the NFC North (+155) and are finally going to receive some national attention. Sewell has to jump other standouts such as Lane Johnson and Tristan Wirfs, but he’s young with lots of potential and has the platform to get his name in the headlines.