NFC South Odds, Predictions, Betting Picks 2025: Tampa Bay in Control of Their Own Destiny

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one win away from securing the division title

• Atlanta entered the year as a sizable betting favorite to win the NFC South

• The Buccaneers offense ranks top-10 in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After entering the year listed as a sizable betting favorite to win the NFC South division title, the Atlanta Falcons chances of doing so look bleak as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in full control of their own destiny. In order for Atlanta to win the division, the Bucs need to lose to the New Orleans Saints while they take care of business against the Carolina Panthers in week 18. Unfortunately for Atlanta, the Buccaneers are listed as a massive betting favorite over the injury riddled Saints.

Speaking of Tampa, their offense has been red hot over the past few weeks of play as the Bucs enter the regular season finale ranked top-10 in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Baker Mayfield’s resurgence has helped turn the Bucs offense into one of the more formidable units in the league. An impressive feat as he has been able to maintain his high level of play even after his star wide receiver Chris Godwin went down with a season ending injury while Mike Evans was in and out the lineup with nagging injuries.

NFC South Odds

Important note: Odds for NFC South are no longer available. Check back with us soon as we will continue covering NFC South in the 2025/26 season.

NFC South Predictions and Favorites to Win 

With a one game lead over Atlanta, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in full control of their own destiny for the NFC South division title.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1300) at FanDuel

Since Mike Evans made his return from injury, Tampa Bay’s offense has steadily turned into one of the more explosive pass attacks in the league as the Bucs currently rank top-10 in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Even with his offensive line grading out poorly in Pass Protection, Baker Mayfield has had no issue with scrambling away from pressure and hitting his deep group of pass catchers in stride to help sustain drives down the field.

Not only has the Bucs pass attack been one of the best units in the league, but their ground game has also finally given them the production they need to be a well rounded unit. This is in large part of the emergence of Bucky Irving as the rookie running back has carried them to top-10 marks in Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Against the Saints in week 18, expect Irving to play a major role in their success and lead the team to their fourth straight NFC South division title.

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New Orleans Saints

Even though the New Orleans Saints are out of division title contention, they can still play spoiler by upsetting the Bucs in week 18 as a sizable underdog. A stunning turnaround after how good New Orleans looked earlier in the year, yet injuries derailed their momentum and brought the Saints crashing back down to reality. Heading into week 18, the Saints will be without their top three pass catchers while Alvin Kamara and Derek Carr are listed as questionable as well.

To make matters worse for New Orleans, their defense has given them minimal support as they continue to underwhelm in their efforts of stopping the run as their near dead last marks in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards indicates. Their inability to stop the run has been a thorn in their side all season long and should be addressed this offseason should the Saints want to accelerate their rebuild. Fortunately for New Orleans, this year's draft features plenty of productive defensive lineman.

Carolina Panthers

Even though the Carolina Panthers are going to finish the year with only 4-5 wins, their future looks bright on offense as Bryce Young has continued to improve after a lackluster start to his career. Especially with their ground game and offensive line finishing the year ranked top-16 in Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, and Adjusted Sack Rate, meaning the Panthers are only a few pass catchers away from being a very well rounded unit.

Unfortunately for Carolina, their defense needs help at all three levels of the field as they head into week 18 ranked near dead last across the board in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Pressure Rate. With the Panthers expected to draft near the top of the board, they will have a great opportunity to select either Will Johnson, Abdul Carter, or Mason Graham. All dominant talents in their own right who would give the Panthers an instant boost in defensive production to help turn them into a competitive unit.

Who Will Win the NFC South - My Pick 

Atlanta Falcons (+800) at FanDuel

Jaws hit the floor when the Atlanta Falcons drafted Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr with their first round pick, especially after signing Kirk Cousins to a massive guaranteed deal. While their pick received instant backlash, critics may be eating their words after how poor Cousins has looked over the past few weeks of play. Michael Penix Jr has since overtaken him for the starting role and will look to lead the Falcons to their first NFC South division title since 2016.

While their offense has managed to stay afloat, the Falcons defense continues to underwhelm as that side of the ball currently ranks well below league average in Def DVOA, Adjusted Line Yards, Adjusted Sack Rate, and Pressure Rate. Even if the Falcons win the division and secure a spot in the playoffs, it’s tough to imagine how they would make a run to the Super Bowl due to their lack of defensive production. Heading into the offseason, expect Atlanta to aggressively pursue productive defensive players.

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NFC South History

When one team stands above the rest, they normally have a hold on the division for a few years. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now won the NFC South three years in a row while the New Orleans Saints held the title for four years before them. The Carolina Panthers also had a turn at the top of the NFC South, dominating the division from 2013-2015. 

With the Falcons projected as the favorite to win it this year, they are potentially next in line to start a dynasty. Especially with the rest of the NFC South regressing on paper. The Falcons have not won the division since 2016 and are in last place in the NFC South for the most division titles while the Saints lead the division with seven NFC South titles.

Past NFC South Winners

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the NFC South

Having access to multiple sportsbooks allows you to line shop as odds can drastically vary between each sports book. The Falcons odds to win the NFC South for example can be found as low as +750 at Caesars and as high as +800 at FanDuel. That is a difference of $50 in profit for a $100 bettor.

Another reason to grab as many sportsbooks as you can get is because each book also has their own unique signup bonus to help boost your bankroll ahead of the NFL season. BetMGM Sportsbook for example is giving new users up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

We dive into much more detail in our guide on the Best NFL Betting Sites available today.

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

How to Read NFC South Winner Odds

Before making any type of wager, it’s critical to know how the listed odds work. Should you have made a wager on the Falcons to win the NFC South in the preseason at -130, that means you would have needed to wager $130 to profit $100. At their current odds of +800, then a $100 wager would profit you $800 if they win the division.