NFC South Odds, Predictions, Betting Picks 2024: Falcons Still on Top After a Two Game Skid

• The Atlanta Falcons have a two game lead in the NFC South division standings

• The Falcons defense ranks near dead last in both Def Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers star wide receiver Mike Evans is expected to make his return from injury

After the Atlanta Falcons odds to win the division climbed up to -1800, they came crashing back down after two straight losses to the New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos. Their latest performance was especially alarming as the Broncos held them to just six total points in a 38-6 loss. Even after their skid, the Falcons still hold a two game lead over the rest of the division. That gives them some cushion before having to go through a tough two game stretch against the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings.

As for the rest of the contenders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still in contention for the division title as their current odds imply. Their offense is also expected to receive a major boost in production as Mike Evans is nearing his return from injury. With Evans back in the lineup, the rest of the offense will have more room to work with while he commands defensive attention. The New Orleans Saints meanwhile are in the midst of an easy stretch of their schedule while only two games back from the Falcons.

NFC South Odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Click on the odds in the table below to head to Caesars Sportsbook and place your bets. Place your bets and claim the bonus: $1,000 First Bet on Caesars OR $250 in Bonus Bets using WSN1000 Promo Code.

NFC South Predictions and Favorites to Win 

With the Saints and Bucs dealing with injuries, the Atlanta Falcons have the opportunity to pull away from the rest of the pack as the current division leader.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+400) at BetMGM

After losing four straight games, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bye week could not come any sooner as they clearly needed a hard restart. Especially after dealing with an abundance of injuries, including losing Chris Godwin for the rest of the season while Mike Evans also sat out with a hamstring issue. Fortunately for the Bucs, Evans is expected to make his return in the near future which will give their offense an instant boost in production while freeing up space for the rest of their playmakers.

While Evans return helps out their offense, the Bucs are still in serious need of their defense elevating their level of play to help be a well rounded contender. Mainly their secondary as their back end continues to struggle in coverage, entering week 12 ranked well below league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Even with their lack of defensive production, the Bucs are in an intriguing situation as they have a favorable three game stretch coming up to help close the gap between them and the Falcons.

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New Orleans Saints (+3000) at Caesars

It’s been a roller coaster of a year for the New Orleans Saints as they kicked off their season looking like one of the best teams in the league while their quarterback Derek Carr made a case for being one of the early front runners for the MVP award. Carr unfortunately suffered an injury, plunging the Saints into a prolonged cold stretch of play. During their losing streak, the Saints fired Dennis Allen and named Darren Rizzi the interim head coach.

Since Rizzi was promoted, the Saints have managed to rattle off two straight wins against the Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns. While it remains to be seen if their recent level of play is sustainable, the Saints do at least get the benefit of hosting the Los Angeles Rams before hitting the road to battle it out against the lowly New York Giants. Should New Orleans manage to win those games while the Falcons continue to struggle, then the Saints current odds to win the division are going to come crashing down.

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Carolina Panthers (+15000) at BetMGM

While the Saints and Buccaneers have the opportunity to close the gap between them and the Atlanta Falcons in the division standings, the Carolina Panthers find themselves on the opposite end of the spectrum as they face off against the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend. Granted the Panthers do get the benefit of coming off a bye, yet they will still be severely outmatched on both sides of the ball.

Heading into week 12, the Carolina Panthers rank near dead last across the board in both Off and Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their defense has been especially underwhelming as the Panthers also rank near dead last in Def Adjusted Line Yards, Adjusted Sack Rate, and Pressure Rate. Even at their current astronomically high odds, pass on the Panthers to win the NFC South division title.

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Who Will Win the NFC South - My Pick 

Atlanta Falcons (-350) at Caesars

Even after losing their last two games, the Atlanta Falcons still possess a sizable lead over the rest of the pack in the NFC South division standings. Injuries to the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers helped the Falcons sustain their lead, yet Atlanta now needs to quickly round into form with health back on the Bucs and Saints side. Especially with two tough opponents coming up on their schedule as the Falcons host the Los Angeles Chargers before hitting the road to face off against the Minnesota Vikings.

Should the Falcons want to get back up off the mat, then their defense will need to drastically elevate their level of play as their front seven currently ranks 32nd in Adjusted Sack Rate and near dead last in Pressure Rate. That puts their secondary in an uncomfortable position as opposing quarterbacks get the benefit of playing in a clean pocket, giving their playmakers extra time in the open field to help create separation from the Falcons coverage. Should the Falcons lose both contests, then the race for the division title will get a lot more interesting.

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NFC South History

When one team stands above the rest, they normally have a hold on the division for a few years. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now won the NFC South three years in a row while the New Orleans Saints held the title for four years before them. The Carolina Panthers also had a turn at the top of the NFC South, dominating the division from 2013-2015. 

With the Falcons projected as the favorite to win it this year, they are potentially next in line to start a dynasty. Especially with the rest of the NFC South regressing on paper. The Falcons have not won the division since 2016 and are in last place in the NFC South for the most division titles while the Saints lead the division with seven NFC South titles.

Past NFC South Winners

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the NFC South

Having access to multiple sportsbooks allows you to line shop as odds can drastically vary between each sports book. The Falcons odds to win the NFC South for example can be found as low as -350 at Caesars and as high as -500 at BetMGM. That is a difference of $150 in a tied up wager for a $100 bettor while returning the same amount of profit.

Another reason to grab as many sportsbooks as you can get is because each book also has their own unique signup bonus to help boost your bankroll ahead of the NFL season. BetMGM Sportsbook for example is giving new users up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

We dive into much more detail in our guide on the Best NFL Betting Sites available today.

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How to Read NFC South Winner Odds

Before making any type of wager, it’s critical to know how the listed odds work. Should you have made a wager on the Falcons to win the NFC South in the preseason at -130, that means you would have needed to wager $130 to profit $100. If you like one of the longer shots like the New Orleans Saints at +3000, then a $100 wager would profit you $3,000 should they win the division.