NFC South Odds, Predictions, Betting Picks 2024: Falcons Odds to Win the Division Continue to Decline

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the new betting favorite to win the NFC South

• The Atlanta Falcons are currently out of the playoff picture

• Atlanta’s defense ranks near dead last in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After acquiring Kirk Cousins from the Minnesota Vikings in the offseason, the Atlanta Falcons were expected to be the clear cut favorite for the NFC South division title. Not only are the Falcons currently in second place in the division, but they are also out of the playoff picture for the NFC as well. While Atlanta did manage to get back on track with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders, they still need the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lose one of their last three games in order to leap back over them with the tiebreaker.

As for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they are in full control of their own destiny as they have a one game lead over the Atlanta Falcons with just three games left in the regular season. Should Tampa Bay win out, then they will win their fourth straight division title and secure home field advantage for the first round of the playoffs as well. The Bucs certainly have a great opportunity to do so as they finish their year with favorable matchups against the Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers, and New Orleans Saints.

NFC South Odds

Odds courtesy of Caesaras Sportsbook. Click on the odds in the table below to head to Caesars Sportsbook and place your bets. Place your bets and claim the bonus: Bet $1, Double Your Winnings Your Next 10 Bets

NFC South Predictions and Favorites to Win 

With a one game lead over Atlanta, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in full control of their own destiny for the NFC South division title.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-360) at FanDuel

After Chris Godwin and Mike Evans suffered a long term injury, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers future looked bleak as their offensive production drastically declined in the process. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, the Atlanta Falcons were unable to capitalize on their opportunity and lost four straight games to help keep the Bucs in contention for the division title. With a one game lead, Tampa is in full control of their own destiny and can win the NFC South if they finish their year 3-0.

Should the Bucs want to win their fourth straight division title, then their offense must continue to play at a high level to help mask their low level of play on defense. Generating defensive production has been a struggle for the Bucs this season, mainly in regard to defending against the pass as their secondary currently ranks well below league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. With minimal support from their defense, pass on the Bucs current short odds to win the division title.

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New Orleans Saints (+100000) at Caesars

At 5-9, the New Orleans Saints only path to making the playoffs involves them winning the NFC South division title. In order for that to happen, the Saints need to go 0-3 in their last three games of the regular season while the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose out. A near impossible feat, yet still a possibility as their current odds imply.

With their chances of making the playoffs practically non-existent, the Saints would be better off turning their sights towards the offseason as they have glaring holes on both sides of the ball needing to be patched up. Especially in regard to their front seven as their defense currently ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Luckily for the Saints, this year's NFL Draft features plenty of productive interior defensive lineman for them to choose from.

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Carolina Panthers (N/A)

Even with Bryce Young drastically elevating his level of play over the past few weeks, it has not been nearly enough for the Carolina Panthers to be competitive and compete for the NFC South division title. Young’s recent play at least gives the Panthers some assurance he can be their starting quarterback for the future and allows their front office to attack other positions during free agency and the NFL Draft.

Unfortunately for Carolina, they have glaring holes all over the roster. Mainly on defense as the Panthers currently rank near dead last across the board in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, and Adjusted Sack Rate. The Panthers also need to add more productive pass catchers who can create separation from opposing coverage and give Young higher quality passing lanes. Even with a productive offseason, the Panthers may still be a few years away from competing for the division title.

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Who Will Win the NFC South - My Pick 

Atlanta Falcons (+300) at Caesars

Not only were the Falcons listed as the favorite to win the NFC South, but they also had Super Bowl aspirations with expectations that Kirk Cousins would be able to drastically elevate their level of play on offense. While he has managed to raise their metrics after last year’s disastrous results with Desmond Ridder, Cousins has been recently going through a slump and bringing down their level of production in the process.

With Atlanta’s defense struggling to play at a competitive level, Cousins can ill-afford to go through a cold stretch of play as the Falcons are overly reliant on their offense to secure the win. Generating a pass rush has been a struggle for the Falcons as Atlanta currently ranks near dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate. Should Atlanta want to salvage their hopes of winning the division and make the playoffs, then Cousins will need to quickly round back into form to help mask their struggles on defense.

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NFC South History

When one team stands above the rest, they normally have a hold on the division for a few years. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now won the NFC South three years in a row while the New Orleans Saints held the title for four years before them. The Carolina Panthers also had a turn at the top of the NFC South, dominating the division from 2013-2015. 

With the Falcons projected as the favorite to win it this year, they are potentially next in line to start a dynasty. Especially with the rest of the NFC South regressing on paper. The Falcons have not won the division since 2016 and are in last place in the NFC South for the most division titles while the Saints lead the division with seven NFC South titles.

Past NFC South Winners

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the NFC South

Having access to multiple sportsbooks allows you to line shop as odds can drastically vary between each sports book. The Falcons odds to win the NFC South for example can be found as low as +280 at FanDuel and as high as +300 at Caesars. That is a difference of $20 in profit for a $100 bettor.

Another reason to grab as many sportsbooks as you can get is because each book also has their own unique signup bonus to help boost your bankroll ahead of the NFL season. BetMGM Sportsbook for example is giving new users up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

We dive into much more detail in our guide on the Best NFL Betting Sites available today.

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How to Read NFC South Winner Odds

Before making any type of wager, it’s critical to know how the listed odds work. Should you have made a wager on the Falcons to win the NFC South in the preseason at -130, that means you would have needed to wager $130 to profit $100. At their current odds of +300, then a $100 wager would profit you $300 if they win the division.