NFC North Odds, Predictions, Betting Picks 2024: Injuries Continue to Plague the Detroit Lions

• The Detroit Lions odds to win the NFC North have drastically declined

• The Minnesota Vikings are a half game back from first in the NFC North division standings

• Minnesota’s defense ranks top-10 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

Not only was Detroit humbled by the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night, but the Lions Carlton Davis, David Montgomery, and Alim McNeill all suffered a devastating injury in the process. While Carlton Davis is expected to make his return in the playoffs, David Montgomery and Alim McNeill will be out the rest of the year. Injuries have plagued the Lions since the start of the season and are starting to become too much to combat against as their on field production continues to rapidly decline.

Should the Lions stumble over the next few weeks while dealing with injuries, then the Minnesota Vikings will have the opportunity to win the division title. As of writing, the Vikings are a half game back from the Lions due to Detroit possessing the tiebreaker. Fortunately for Minnesota, they finish their season with a rematch against the Lions in what may very well decide who wins the NFC North. Not only would this result in a division title, but the Vikings can leap up to the second seed in the NFC for the playoffs as well.

NFC North Odds 

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NFC North Predictions and Favorites to Win 

With a dominant defense and health on their side, the Minnesota Vikings are in a great position to win the division title.

Minnesota Vikings (+220) at BetMGM

After entering the year listed as a long shot for the NFC North division title, the Minnesota Vikings are now in full control of their own destiny as they are tied with the Detroit Lions for first place with only three games remaining in the regular season. While the Lions do have the tiebreaker over them, the Vikings can neutralize their tiebreaker and leap over them for sole possession of first in their rematch in week 18.

The Vikings certainly have the defense to stall out the Lions high powered offense as Minnesota currently ranks in the top half of the board in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Sack Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Detroit’s defense has also been ravaged by injuries, giving Minnesota a great opportunity to sustain drives down the field and set a scoring pace too fast for the Lions to keep up with. Should you have bet on Detroit to win the NFC North earlier in the year, then now is the time to hedge those bets.

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Green Bay Packers (+55000) at FanDuel

Since Jordan Love has made his return from injury, the Packers quarterback has steadily improved throughout the year and has elevated the Packers offense as a whole in the process. Heading into week 16, the Packers pass attack ranks above league average in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. While a division title is out of their reach, the Packers are getting hot at just the right time for a potential run to the Super Bowl.

Should the Packers want to make a deep run in the playoffs, then their defense must find a way to stop opposing offenses from carving them up with the pass when in the middle of the field. That has been a thorn in the Packers side throughout the year as Green Bay’s secondary ranks 32nd in Def Pass Success Rate. Their lack of pressure also plays a factor in their low marks in coverage as opposing quarterbacks get the benefit of operating in a clean pocket which increases the quality of their throws.

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Chicago Bears (N/A)

After selecting star USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears were expected to compete for the NFC North division title and make the playoffs. The Bears failed to meet both expectations after going 4-10 and now are in flux with glaring holes on both sides of the ball. Especially on offense as the Bears currently rank below league average in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

While it’s safe to say Caleb Williams has severely underwhelmed after entering the year listed as the betting favorite for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, it’s tough to put all the blame on him as he has had to operate behind the worst offensive line in the league. As of writing, the Bears rank near dead last in both Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate. Their inability to hold their ground has resulted in Williams being under relentless pressure, forcing him to make throws on the run for little success.

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Who Will Win the NFC North - My Pick 

Detroit Lions (-270) at Caesars

While the Lions have managed to mask their injuries and sustain their high level of play throughout the season, their latest trio of casualties are as devastating as it gets with Carlton Davis, David Montgomery, and Alim McNeill the latest to go on the injury report. Each player has played a key role in their success this season, now leaving them void of their elite production with Montgomery and McNeill out for the season and Davis out until the playoffs.

Luckily for the Lions, Jahmyr Gibbs has proven he can be a three down back and should be able to keep their ground game afloat with his elite dual threat abilities. Establishing the run has been vital for the Lions success this season as it also opens up higher quality passing lanes for their pass attack. With their defensive production steadily declining due to injuries, maintaining their top-10 marks in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate is as vital as ever should the Lions want to win the NFC North division title.

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NFC North History

Since its inception in 2002, the NFC North has been in large part dominated by the Green Bay Packers. From Brett Favre, to Aaron Rodgers, and now Jordan Love, the Packers have fielded elite teams that have been head and shoulders above the rest of the division.

Their early years of dominance may be behind them though as the rest of the NFC North has quickly improved with the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions winning the past two division titles. The Lions are the favorite to win it again this year, potentially being the first to repeat since the Packers did it in 2020-2021. Should Caleb Williams live up to the hype right away, then the Bears can potentially contend to win the division for the first time since 2018.

Past NFC North Winners

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the NFC North

Having access to multiple sportsbooks is more vital than ever for a multitude of reasons. Starting with their listed odds, they can wildly vary between each sportsbook as shown in the table below. The Detroit Lions for example can be found as high as -290 at FanDuel and as low as -270 at Caesars. That is a difference of $20 in a tied up wager for a $100 bettor while returning the same amount of profit.

Another benefit of having access to multiple sportsbooks is that they all have their own unique signup bonus. FanDuel Sportsbook for example is giving new users $150 in bonus bets after creating an account and winning your first bet of at least $5.

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How to Read NFC North Winner Odds

When making any type of wager, it’s vital to know how the listed odds work. Should you have wagered on the Detroit Lions in the preseason at -145, then you would have needed to wager $145 to win $100 should they win the NFC North. If you like one of the longer shots like the Minnesota Vikings at +220, then a $100 wager would profit you $220 if they win the division title.