Most Rushing Touchdowns NFL 2019: Top-Dozen Odds and Predictions

With last year’s rushing touchdowns winner rumored to be slowed down (just slightly) by injury, oddsmakers have declared a new odds-on favorite to win the title in 2019.

The NFL has become a pass-centric league over the last several decades, but the run game is still a critical weapon for every football franchise, especially for those who expect to play well in the freezing cold and the postseason.

Some teams’ run games are better than others, so here we break down the odds and predictions and offer analysis on each of the Top Dozen candidates expected to challenge for the honor of rushing for the most NFL touchdowns during the regular 2019 season.  

Here are the current top-dozen odds and predictions listed for which NFL athlete will have the most rushing touchdowns in 2019:

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Good luck!

12) James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Age: 24                       Years in the NFL: 2

Height: 6-foot-1          Weight: 233-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 13

2018 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 215 times for 973 yards for an average of 4.5 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns with 4 fumbles.

Analysis

Running back James Conner is in his third year of a four-year, $3.16 million contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers, so it is the perfect time for (another) breakout season.

Last year as an NFL sophomore, Conner was named the starter for the Steelers once it became clear that superstar Le’Veon Bell was going to sit out for at least the first part of 2018, and by the end the kid from Erie ended up tied for third most touchdowns among his running back peers.

The Steelers’ offensive line was ranked ninth in total rushing touchdowns last season (16 TDs) but only 31^st in total rushing yards (1,445 yds) and general manager Kevin Colbert didn’t change a thing about them this offseason, so Conner will face a similar situation in 2019, which might not be a bad thing at all.

11) Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

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Age: 23                       Years in the NFL: 1

Height: 5-foot-11        Weight: 227-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 192 times for 996 yards for an average of 5.2 yards per carry and 8 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

Analysis

The 2019 Cleveland Browns might just have too many great running backs on their current roster, with starter Nick Chubb trading snaps with the soft-handed Duke Johnson Jr. and Dontrell Hilliard, not to mention their offseason pickup, Kareem Hunt, who is suspended through Week 8.

Chubb came within 4 yards of breaking 1,000 his rookie season in 2018, and his eight rushing touchdowns were tied for eleventh most among running backs, so it’s definitely feasible that he’ll be even more productive in 2019, if he gets enough snaps, that is.

Despite Baker Mayfield now having a legitimate deep threat in Odell Beckham Jr. plus sure-handed slot man Jarvis Landry and ball-catching tight end David Njoku to throw at, the cold-weather Browns still prioritize their running game, so it’s still likely Chubb will get plenty of chances to take the ball to the end zone in 2019.

10) Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets

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Age: 27                       Years in the NFL: 5

Height: 6-foot-1          Weight: 225-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 0, Missed season – Contract Dispute

Number of games played in 2017: 15

2017 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 321 times for 1,291 yards for an average of 4.0 yards per carry and 9 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.

Analysis

The big question on Le’Veon Bell is whether he will be the same dual-threat player he was in 2017 given that he skipped an entire NFL season, though it is reported that he did train on his own during that time.

In the old days, players couldn’t recover from that long of a break, but modern athletes have access to better training methods and equipment, so the New York Jets are counting on Bell being in tip-top shape by Week 1 and ready to improve on their 26^th ranked rushing attack.

Even if it takes a few games for Bell to knock the rust off, he’ll be a welcome boost to a Jets run offense that averaged just 101.4 total yards per game last season and posted only eleven total rushing touchdowns, tied for 23^rd in the league.

9) Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

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Age: 23                       Years in the NFL: 2

Height: 5-foot-11        Weight: 211-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 219 times for 1,098 yards for an average of 5.0 yards per carry and 7 touchdowns with 4 fumbles.

Analysis

His seven rushing touchdowns are a deceptive total because if Christian McCaffrey wasn’t such an effective pass catcher, he’d most likely have a lot more rushing yards and touchdowns to his name.

The Carolina Panthers use McCaffrey a lot, but now that general manager Marty Hurney had to sign center Matt Paradis after 12-year veteran Ryan Kalil retired, it will be interesting to see how that will affect the Panthers’ run game plans.

Regardless, count on McCaffrey to touch the ball and score often, making him one of the top ten candidates for posting the most NFL rushing touchdowns in 2019.

8) Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts

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Age: 23                       Years in the NFL: 2

Height: 6-foot-0          Weight: 210-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 12

2018 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 195 times for 908 yards for an average of 4.7 yards per carry and 9 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.

Analysis

Despite missing four games due to a hamstring injury, second-year back Marlon Mack tied for the seventh most rushing touchdowns last season (9 TDs), and the oddsmakers are predicting he will finish ranked about the same in 2019.

Of course, that doesn’t take into account that the Indianapolis Colts are on the rise with a young offensive line that had two All-Rookies last season, right tackle Braden Smith and left guard Quenton Nelson, who was also selected as a First-team All-Pro.

However last season the Colts’ run game was ranked 20^th in yards per week (107.4) and 16^th in total touchdowns (13), so they will definitely have to elevate their entire rushing attack for Mack to run away with most touchdowns in 2019.

7) Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks

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Age: 24                       Years in the NFL: 2

Height: 6-foot-0          Weight: 227-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 14

2018 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 247 times for 1,151 yards for an average of 4.7 yards per carry and 9 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.

Analysis

For someone who isn’t a household name (yet), Chris Carson sure put up some impressive numbers in his second NFL season, ending up as the fifth-ranked running back in the league.

Carson’s offensive line has changed up a bit with the loss of guard J.R. Sweezy to free agency, so now it will be up to newly signed left guard Mike Iupati to fill those shoes and reinforce a Seahawks rushing attack that was ranked first in the league last season in total yards with 2,560.

It will be Carson’s third season, and it’s not difficult to imagine him once again being a key to their offensive success and posting enough rushing touchdowns to make a run at this title.

6) Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

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Age: 25                       Years in the NFL: 3

Height: 6-foot-3          Weight: 247-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 215 times for 1,059 yards for an average of 4.9 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns with 1 fumble.

Analysis

Despite having a seventh-ranked rushing offense in total yards (2,023 yds) last season, the Tennessee Titans didn’t get to the postseason for the ninth out of the previous ten seasons.

Henry has gotten better in each of the three years he’s played in the NFL, though in 2019 he will be working without the great Matt LaFleur as his coordinator, and must adjust to the new guy, Arthur Smith, the former tight ends coach, so it could be a make or break season for the two of them.

With guards Josh Kline and Quinton Spain lost to free agency and newly signed left guard Rodger Saffold now in the mix, Henry will have a lot of new factors to contend with in 2019, so look for him to either step up or slightly regress.

5) Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers

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Age: 26                       Years in the NFL: 4

Height: 6-foot-1          Weight: 215-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 12

2018 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 175 times for 885 yards for an average of 5.1 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns with 1 fumble.

Analysis

Melvin Gordon is another one of those dual-threat backs that have become so popular in the modern NFL – he’s averaged 270 total touches per season – so expect him to get the ball a lot again in 2019.

Gordon will be running behind the same offensive line as last season, which is good news since they were tied for seventh-most total rushing touchdowns (16) last season despite averaging a middle-of-the-league 117.1 yards per game.

Over the last three seasons, Gordon has posted 10, 8 and 10 total rushing touchdowns respectively, so chances are fourth-year offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt’s game plan will include just as many potential runs, though more would definitely be better if Gordon hopes to challenge the big boys for this title.

4) Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

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Age: 23                       Years in the NFL: 3

Height: 6-foot-0          Weight: 228-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 15

2018 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 304 times for 1,434 yards for an average of 4.7 yards per carry and 6 touchdowns with 6 fumbles.

Analysis

The Dallas Cowboys ran for almost 2,000 total yards last season (1,963) and ranked tenth in the league with young Ezekiel Elliott leading the way from the backfield.

Yet another dual-threat back (they’re all the modern NFL rage), Elliott is running behind one of the better offensive lines that include First-team All-Pro right guard Zack Martin and veteran center Travis Frederick.

The most touchdowns Elliott has rushed for in a single season was 15 as a rookie, so it is entirely possible that last year’s (and 2016’s) NFL rushing yards leader will win, show or place in this year’s prestigious event, that is if he can hang onto the ball after having fumbled six times in 2018, more than any other running back in the league.

3) Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams

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Age: 24                       Years in the NFL: 4

Height: 6-foot-1          Weight: 224-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 14

2018 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 256 times for 1,251 yards for an average of 4.9 yards per carry and 17 touchdowns with 1 fumble.

Analysis

Dual-threat Todd Gurley’s Los Angeles Rams did everything in 2018 except actually win the Lombardi Trophy, though they came very close to doing that despite the fact that Gurley’s production slowed way down by the end of the regular season.

The rumor is that Gurley suffers from arthritis, and if that’s true (or if any other injury rumors are true), then the 2x First-team All-Pro and 3x Pro Bowler will be getting more time to rest in 2019, thus less snaps to score on.

Of course, for the last two seasons, Gurley has been the NFL rushing touchdowns leader, so it would not be a good idea to totally count him out of this race in 2019.

2) Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

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Age: 22                       Years in the NFL: 1

Height: 6-foot-0          Weight: 233-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 261 times for 1,307 yards for an average of 5.0 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

Analysis

What a rookie season Saquon Barkley had, which was just as expected for the quads-heavy second overall pick in the draft, having been selected to go to the Pro-Bowl, First-team All-Pro, NFL Rookie of the Year and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and the PFWA All-Rookie Team.

There’s no telling how amazing Barkley’s follow-up season will be, especially now that the New York Giants interim general manager David Gettleman has improved the young offensive line by trading for right guard Kevin Zeitler.

Veteran quarterback Eli Manning and his Giants aren’t expected to do incredibly well in 2019, but the defense has definitely been improved this offseason and now that Manning has a viable threat to his status as a starter in rookie Daniel Jones and one less guaranteed throwing target with the loss of Odell Beckham Jr., expect Barkley’s touches to increase in 2019 and his rushing touchdowns to challenge for this title.

1) Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

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Age: 23                       Years in the NFL: 2

Height: 5-foot-10        Weight: 215-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 15

2018 Rushing Stats Line: Ran the ball 194 times for 883 yards for an average of 4.6 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns with 1 fumble.

Analysis

As soon as New Orleans Saints general manager Mickey Loomis lost powerful running back Mark Ingram to free agency during the offseason, he signed former Minnesota Vikings standout Latavius Murray to play the role of the pounder behind Alvin Kamara’s sweet speed and fancy footwork.

Kamara came 3 touchdowns shy of tying last year’s rushing touchdown totals winner, the Rams’ Gurley, and since Gurley will be resting a bit more in 2019 (see above), Kamara is now seen by the oddsmakers as the overall favorite in this particular category.

With two Second-team All-Pro tackles, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczk, still blocking for him and newly signed center Nick Easton now calling the shots at the line, Kamara has a great chance to continue his upward rise and possibly rush for the most NFL touchdowns in 2019.

You can also read, Most NFL Passing Touchdowns 2019.