Monday Night Football Week 7 Prop Bets: Bucs Best Path for Success Is Through the Air

• Lamar Jackson’s odds to win his second straight MVP award continue to grow

• Baker Mayfield ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per Play and PFF Grade

• The Baltimore Ravens secondary ranks below league average in Def Pass EPA and Success Rate

In a seemingly wide-open field for the NFL MVP award with no one pulling away as the deserving favorite, reigning award winner Lamar Jackson has continued to climb up the oddsboard after a hot start to his season. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Lamar will have the opportunity to sustain his high level of play as the Bucs secondary has struggled with limiting opposing pass production. Entering Monday, the Bucs' back end ranks well below the league average in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA.

Speaking of hot starts to the season, the Bucs' Baker Mayfield continues to excel since revitalizing his career in Tampa as he currently ranks above league average in quarterback EPA per Play and PFF Grade. Like Lamar, Mayfield will also have the opportunity to thrive as the Ravens secondary has shockingly struggled in coverage this season. Especially when defending against the short throw, entering the contest ranked well below league average in Def Pass Success Rate.

As for where to wager on Monday night’s primetime matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, BetMGM Sportsbook has been the top choice for the market as they offer an abundance of props for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM, you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Baker Mayfield Over 256.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM

Since bouncing around the league after being traded away from the Cleveland Browns, Baker Mayfield has seemingly revived his career in Tampa as he continues to rank above league average in quarterback EPA per Play. Even when his offensive line has given him minimal support in pass protection by ranking near dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate, Mayfield has had no issue with moving the ball down the field through the air by connecting with his star-studded receiving duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Against the Baltimore Ravens, Mayfield will have the opportunity to continue to succeed as the Ravens' secondary steadily regresses. A shockingly poor level of play for a secondary that is routinely considered as one of the better units in the league, yet the Ravens enter Monday night ranked in the bottom half of the board in Def Pass Success Rate and EPA. Generating pressure has also been an issue for Baltimore’s defense as they currently rank below league average in Pressure Rate.

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Baker Mayfield Anytime Touchdown (+400) at Caesars

With the Bucs offense capable of moving the ball down the field into the red zone, they will need to continue to rely on the pass in order to maximize on their scoring opportunities. Not only has generating rush production once again been a struggle for the Bucs offense, they also face off against one of the best run-stopping units as the Ravens' front seven ranks near the top of the board in Def Rush Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA. 

Unfortunately for Tampa, the Ravens will be able to stretch out in coverage with less ground to cover when inside the 20. That may lead to a scrambling opportunity, feeding into Baker’s anytime touchdown prop. Be sure to shop around when targeting an anytime touchdown prop as odds for the market can drastically vary between each sportsbook.

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Lamar Jackson Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM

While Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense have thrived with generating pass production, defending against it has been a different story as they enter the contest ranked well below league average in Def Pass Success Rate, DVOA, and EPA. Not only has their secondary underwhelmed in coverage, but their defensive line struggles with collapsing the pocket as they rank below average in Def Adjusted Sack Rate.

Their front seven’s inability to collapse the pocket puts their secondary in a dangerous position as their heavy blitz rate forces their back end to cover more ground. Against an offensive line that ranks near the top of the board in Pass Protection, expect the Bucs front line to continue to struggle with getting into the opposing backfield. That gives Lamar Jackson a cleaner pocket to work with, increasing the quality of his throws to help sustain drives down the field.

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