Monday Night Football Week 6 Prop Bets: Injured Rodgers to Struggle Against the Bills Coverage

• Josh Allen’s odds to win the MVP continue to grow as one of the betting favorites for the award

• The New York Jets front seven ranks below league average in Def Rush Success Rate and DVOA

• The Jets recently fired their head coach and stripped away play calling duties from their offensive coordinator

After getting off to a 2-3 start to their season, the New York Jets have recently fired their head coach Robert Saleh while relinquishing play calling duties from their offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. While this normally a sign of a drop off in offensive production, a coaching change may be exactly what the Jets offense needs as they enter week six ranked well below league average in both Pass and Rush DVOA, Success Rate, and EPA.

Unfortunately for the Jets, their first contest post coaching change is against the Buffalo Bills whose defense ranks sixth overall in Def DVOA. That spells potential disaster for the Jets offense, especially while Aaron Rodgers is dealing with an injury. With a hobbled Rodgers having to throw against a secondary who ranks above league average in Pass Def Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA, expect the Jets pass attack to continue to struggle with moving the ball down the field and into scoring territory.

As for where to wager on Monday night’s AFC East divisional matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, BetMGM Sportsbook has been the front-runner for the market as they offer a wide range of props for their users to choose from. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, you can get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Aaron Rodgers Under 226.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM

Since making his return from last year’s season ending injury, Rodgers has continued to struggle with elevating the Jets pass attack as their offense currently ranks 23rd in Pass DVOA, 21st in Pass Success Rate, and 21st in Pass EPA. This has been a mixture of getting integrated with his new pass catchers as well as still looking noticeably less than 100% on his surgically repaired achilles. His most recent performance was especially alarming, finishing last week’s contest against the Vikings with three interceptions.

To make matters worse for Rodgers, he is now dealing with a coaching change after the Jets stripped away play calling duties from his offensive coordinator and friend Nathaniel Hackett. While it remains to be seen how their offense will look while under new management, it’s tough to picture Rodgers finding instant success through the air against a Bills secondary who ranks 10th in Def Pass DVOA, 7th in EPA, and 13th in Success Rate.

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Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-185) at BetMGM

With a potential lack of scoring opportunities, Rodgers will already be hard pressed to clear the over on his passing touchdown prop. Especially when factoring in the Bills defensive scheme, blitzing at the lowest rate in the league while anchoring their linebackers in coverage. With less field to defend when in scoring territory, the Bills can stretch out their coverage to help lessen the quality of Rodgers passing lanes even more. This may force the Jets to call a heavier dose of the run when in the red zone, stripping away the chance of Rodgers throwing for a touchdown.

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Josh Allen Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at BetMGM

Speaking of establishing the run, Josh Allen may take it upon himself to carry the ball at a heavier rate while his star running back James Cook is dealing with an injury. Allen will find himself with plenty of opportunities to get out into the open field, gashing a Jets reeling front seven who ranks a startling 26th in Def Rush Success Rate. That indicates the Jets defense struggles to contain opposing rush production in the trenches, conceding sizable chunks at a time with each carry.

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Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (+125) at FanDuel

A big reason for the Jets struggles with stopping the run are because they run the same defensive scheme as the Bills, anchoring their linebackers in coverage while relying on their front four to contain opposing runners in the trenches. That opens the door for Allen to make it to the second level of their defense before battling through resistance, making him near impossible to stop at the point of contact with momentum on his side while near the goal line.

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