Monday Night Football Prop Bets Week 5: Injuries to Derail the Chiefs Offense

• The Kansas City Chiefs are undefeated four weeks into the season

• Rashee Rice is currently dealing with a potential season ending injury

• Derek Carr ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per Play and first overall in PFF Grade

After entering the year expected to regress, the New Orleans Saints' success has been one of the bigger surprises of the season so far this year. Even at 2-2, the Saints have looked every bit like a Super Bowl contender as they possess elite metrics in DVOA and EPA on both sides of the ball. As for the Chiefs, they are as vulnerable as ever to receive their first loss of the season after Rashee Rice went down with a potential season ending injury in a scary collision with Patrick Mahomes.

With the Chiefs losing a key piece of their offense, they are prone to regress as they face off against a Saints defense who ranks top-10 in Pass Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Speaking of regression, expect the Saints ground game to take a step back in production as Alvin Kamara is currently dealing with an injury, potentially being used as a decoy rather than a viable playmaker should he take the field. Luckily for the Saints, Derek Carr currently ranks well above league average in EPA per Play and PFF Grade.

As for where to wager on Monday night’s primetime matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs, Caesars Sportsbook has been the top choice for the market as they offer a wide range of props for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with Caesars Sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, you can get up to $1,000 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager with the WSN promo code WSN1000.

Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-133) at Caesars Sportsbook 

With Rashee Rice out with an injury for the foreseeable future, the Chiefs offense are now dangerously thin in the pass-catching department. Especially with Travis Kelce getting routinely bracketed off the line, leaving Mahomes barren of reliable go-to targets. Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy has flashed at times, yet has hardly shown he can be a number-one option. Factor in the injury to starting running back Isiah Pacheco and the Chiefs offense may struggle to generate consistent offensive production.

With new pieces needed to step up in bigger roles on short notice, the Chiefs offense will be prone to inconsistent play which hampers their chances of stringing together drives down the field. Especially when the Saints' secondary has arguably been one of the better units in the league, entering Monday’s contest ranked top-4 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Expect the Saints' defense to contain the Chiefs' downfield pass attack, limiting their number of scoring opportunities in the process.

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Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interception (-123) at Caesars Sportsbook 

It’s been a rough start to the year for Patrick Mahomes in terms of efficiency as he continues to struggle with taking care of the ball. In four games played, Mahomes has already thrown five interceptions and now has to weave through a stout Saints defense who excels in coverage. With minimal help from their ground game, an uptick in pass attempts increases the chances of Mahomes throwing another interception. Especially when his go-to targets Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy are expected to receive heavier coverage, lessening the quality of his passing lanes.

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Alvin Kamara Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook 

After rushing for 77 yards while battling through broken ribs against the Atlanta Falcons last weekend, Alvin Kamara will find it tough to sustain that same level of success against a far more formidable front seven. Heading into Monday night, the Chiefs defense ranks second overall in Def Rush DVOA and sixth in Adjusted Line Yards. To make matters worse for Kamara, the Saints' offensive line is also dealing with injuries as three of their starters are currently listed as questionable.

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Derek Carr Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

While Patrick Mahomes has struggled, Derek Carr has arguably been one of the best quarterbacks in the league as he currently ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per Play and first overall in PFF Grade. He draws a favorable matchup against a Chiefs secondary who has struggled in coverage, throwing against a unit who ranks 22nd in Pass Def Success Rate and 19th in DVOA. With Kamara hampered by an injury and expected to be bottled up by the Chiefs front seven, Carr may receive an uptick in pass attempts to help sustain drives down the field. 

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