Monday Night Football Week 10 SGP: Will Rams Continue Their Winning Streak?

• Opposing running backs have scored in every game this season when playing the Miami Dolphins. 

• Since Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailao re-entered the lineup, Achane has had 12 carries or less in both games. 

• The Los Angeles Rams have had multiple touchdown passes thrown against them in three of the last four games. 

On Monday Night Football in Week 10 of the NFL season, the 2-6 Miami Dolphins are hosting the 4-4 Miami Dolphins. The Jets and Bills are both 0-2 in their last two games. The Bills were 3-0 to start the season, and in the two games before the most recent two, the Jets were 2-0.

The Dolphins have lost two straight games, while the Rams are on a three-game winning streak. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has played in two games since returning from a concussion. 

Below is a four-leg Same Game Parlay with odds of +800 for this game, featuring players like Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, Tua Tagovailoa, and more. All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, where you can get your first wager back up to $1,000 if it loses when you use our promo code “WSN1000.” 

Kyren Williams Any Time TD (-212) at Caesars Sportsbook

The odds for this prop bet alone don’t present much value, but it’s an excellent addition to a four-leg Same Game Parlay. 

This season, the Dolphins have allowed running backs to score in every game.

And guess what? Williams has scored in all but one game this season. 

His efficiency hasn’t quite been there, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, but that could change in Week 10 against the Dolphins, as they allow 4.59 yards per carry and close to 23 carries.

So, yeah, it really comes down to that—the Dolphins let running backs score every game, and Williams scores in just about every game. 

Simple. 

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De’Von Achane Under 12.5 Carries (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook

Moving over to the running back on the other team, I think Achane finishes with 12 carries or less. 

This season, Achane has run 12 times or less in six games, including the two games Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been back in the lineup. 

In Week 9, fellow running back Raheem Mostert had 10 carries, and Jaylen Wright had six. 

In Week 8, Mostert had nine carries. 

The offense is giving carries to two other competent running backs while Achane deals with a lot of action in the passing game. 

Over the last two games, he’s caught 14 passes on 16 targets for 108 yards and two touchdowns. 

The Rams have also been a bit tough against the run lately, with opposing backs averaging 3.37 yards per carry or less. 

I expect Achane to have plenty of action in the run game while Mostert and Wright combine for 12-15 totes. 

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Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook

Tagovailoa has been back in the lineup for two games following his concussion in Week 2. In those games, he’s thrown three combined touchdowns, including two in Week 10 against the Buffalo Bills on the road in a 30-27 loss.

Taking on the Rams, he should have a slightly better time. 

I mentioned Achane’s pass-catching prowess above as one of his weapons, but he also has wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill at his disposal. 

The Rams surrender 1.88 passing touchdowns per game, allowing two or more in three of the last four games. 

They’ve also struggled quite a bit lately against wide receivers, allowing them to score three times in Week 10. 

I expect this to be a competitive game, so the Dolphins and Tagovailoa won’t be able to simply run the clock out. 

Hill hasn’t gotten in the end zone since Tagovailoa has been back, but I think that changes here. 

Tagovailoa will hit two passing touchdowns here. 

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Tyreek Hill Over 5.5 Receptions (-103) at Caesars Sportsbook

While Hill hasn’t scored since Tagovailoa’s been back in the lineup, he’s still getting some opportunities, averaging seven targets over the last two games. He caught six passes in Week 8 and had four on five targets in Week 10.

As mentioned, the Rams have recently given up plenty of touchdowns to wide receivers. 

Not only have they seen receivers score four times over the last two games against them, they’ve also caught 25 passes over the last two games. 

In both of those games, they’ve allowed at least one receiver to have six catches or more. 

What’s been holding Hill back lately, it seems, is that Tagovailoa’s average depth of target has been under six yards in both games since coming back, while 56.6% of Hill’s targets have come on passes 10-plus yards downfield.  

As a result of Tagovailoa’s lower depth of target, Achane has seen plenty of targets. While he’ll still get plenty of work in the passing game, he had eight catches in Week 9. This season, the Rams have held running backs to three catches or less in four of nine. 

Remember that Tagovailoa’s been back in the lineup for two games, but he’s coming off another concussion after having a long history with them.

I think he will start to find a groove once again, and Hill will be his primary target, leading the team in yards over the last two games. 

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