Monday Night Football SGP Week 1: Jets Clash With 49ers in MNF

• Christian McCaffrey scored in all but two games in 2023. 

• Rodgers threw 12 interceptions in 2022. Before that, he threw 92 from 2006 to 2021. 

• Mike Williams is back after suffering a season-ending knee injury last season with the Los Angeles Chargers. 

Week 1 of the NFL season will conclude with the New York Jets on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is coming off a torn Achilles, while the 49ers have Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams back in the build. Still, the 49ers are without wide receiver Ricky Pearsall for some time following a shooting earlier this offseason. 

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Christian McCaffrey Any Time TD (-180) at FanDuel Sportsbook

McCaffrey will likely end the season with the most rushing yards again, and here, he’ll get things started with a touchdown against the Jets. 

In 2023, running backs averaged nearly 100 yards rushing and 0.71 rushing touchdowns per game while also catching 4.82 passes for 36.47 yards. 

The Jets allowed 12 rushing and six receiving touchdowns to the position. 

Yes, this is a new season, but McCaffrey is an anomaly at running back. In 2023, he had 272 carries for 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns and caught 67 passes on 79 targets for 564 yards and seven scores. With Pearsall sidelined, the offense is essentially the same as last season, and I fully anticipate McCaffrey will get plenty of work as usual. 

He didn’t score in just two games last season. There’s a reason he’s -180 to score a touchdown. He’s getting in there. 

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Breece Hall Any Time TD (+130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Another candidate to lead the league in rushing, I think Hall also finds the end zone. 

In 2023, he produced a lot in the passing game, catching 76 balls for 591 yards and touchdowns. On the ground, he had 223 carries for 994 yards and five touchdowns. However, as you likely know, this came with Zach Wilson as the starting quarterback. 

In Week 1, I expect Rodgers to play fine, but I also expect it to be more conservative. He’s a Hall of Fame quarterback, yes, but he hasn’t played at all during the preseason, and in his first start back from a torn Achilles, it only makes sense to utilize Hall and the running game a bit more here. 

The 49ers allowed 10 rushing touchdowns, including the playoffs last season. I expect this game to be close enough for the Jets to not have to abandon the running game. 

Over his career, Rodgers has thrown nearly the same number of passes to running backs (1,243) as tight ends (1,347). He’s completed 78% of his throws to the position and has thrown 49 touchdowns and just one interception. 

Hall is McCaffrey-like for this offense. Expect to find him in the end zone, too. 

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Aaron Rodgers Interception: No (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Coming off a torn Achilles, Rodgers won’t throw an interception for two reasons.

He’ll utilize Hall here quite a bit. I’d say probably around 15-20 carries, as he’s returning from the Achilles injury. Also, Rodgers hasn’t thrown many interceptions historically. 

In 2022, he had 12. However, before that, he had 92 throughout his career, from 2006 to 2021. 

Against the 49ers in his career, Rodgers is 6-3 and has completed 219 of 331 passes (66.2%) for 2,587 yards, 20 touchdowns, and two interceptions. 

Yes, it's a totally different team than those in the past, but it’s worth mentioning. His most recent start against them came in Week 3 of the 2021 season on the road when he was with the Green Bay Packers. He completed 69.7% of his passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns. 

Overall, I think Rodgers has the protection in front of him now with Ole Fashanu, Tyron Smith, John Simpson, and Morgan Moses to keep him upright and the weapons to make this offense go. I expect Rodgers to be closer to 2021 than 2022 this season. 

No interceptions here as Rodgers seeks yet another Super Bowl run. The Jets are currently +1800 for Super Bowl LIX odds.

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Mike Williams Any Time TD (+250) at FanDuel Sportsbook

This final leg is a wild card, but I lean toward liking Williams's matchup.

Williams is known for getting injured plenty over his career. This is his first season with the Jets, coming over from the Los Angeles Chargers, and he’s been deemed good to go for Week 1. 

When Williams plays, he’s productive. He played in just three games last season with the Chargers, but in those games, he had seven catches or more in two games, 83 yards or more in two games, and caught a touchdown in Week 3. In 2022, he had four games with 113 yards or more. 

Williams will likely see a lot of Isaac Yiadom in nickel packages here. 

Yiadom is a former third-round pick from the 2018 NFL Draft. He’s been a bit of a journeyman throughout his career, playing for the Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, and most recently, the New Orleans Saints. 

In 2023, Yiadom performed well, allowing 22 receptions on 44 targets with an interception. He also allowed three touchdowns. 

From 2021 to 2022, he played just 98 total snaps. 

Going back to 2018 to 2020, he allowed nine touchdowns. 

Now, with the 49ers, they’ll be hoping for the 2023 version, and while that could very well happen, I’m going to take a chance on Williams with Rodgers throwing him the ball.

To give Yiadom credit, he’s six-foot-one and 188 pounds, so he won’t roll over, but I think this is a good spot for the team to get Williams rolling a bit coming off his knee injury. 

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