Week 2 of the NFL season closes out with two matchups on Monday Night Football, and we’ve put together a parlay with our favorite player props and betting picks from each matchup.
Here, we will go over those picks and why they made it into our MNF parlay of the week. Here we go!
The New Orleans Saints barely escaped with a Week 1 win against the Tennessee Titans, 16-15. Derek Carr threw for over 300 yards and the defense intercepted Ryan Tannehill three times, yet they needed a late first down to close the game out and let time expire.
The Carolina Panthers lost their season debut to the Atlanta Falcons 24-10 but suffered an even greater loss in Jaycee Horn, who is out with a hamstring problem. First-overall pick Bryce Young threw a pair of interceptions but played well otherwise and has a chance to get his first professional win at home.
The first team in the later matchup, the Cleveland Browns, beat the Cincinnati Bengals 24-3 while holding Joe Burrow to 82 passing yards. Deshaun Watson struggled again while Nick Chubb powered the offense.
The Steelers were blown off the field by the San Francisco 49ers 30-7. T.J. Watt had three sacks, but that’s just about the only noteworthy performance from a Steelers player in the blowout loss.
Let’s take a quick glance at the parlay in full before we break down each leg.
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Watson’s tenure with the Browns has been anything but a success. In seven career games, he’s averaged 179.4 passing yards. He also registered only 154 in his season debut against the Bengals last week.
Watson has only exceeded 170 passing yards twice during his Browns career. He’s taking on a Steelers defense that, although it was diced up by the Niners, is still very strong and will cause mayhem against an injured offensive line.
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This is an alternate total—the regular line is at 38.5 points, which shows what the oddsmakers think of the matchup. We’re looking at an alternate line to provide extra breathing room and account for common outcomes such as 24-21 or 27-17.
The under went 12-4 in Week 1, and both the Steelers and Browns were part of the under. Primetime matchups also have a long and well-known history of trending towards the under, and since both teams are defined by their defense, we don’t expect many points here.
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Carr is taking on a Panthers defense that, as we mentioned, is down its number-one corner. Carolina only gave up 115 passing yards to Desmond Ridder last week, but that’s more of an indictment against the Falcons’ second-year QB than it is a credit to their solidarity in the secondary.
Carr went over 200 yards 11 times and under only four times in 2022 and began his Saints career with a 305-yard outing. Saints QBs, all of whom are currently backups, also combined to throw for 200+ in 11 of 17 games last year, which makes us comfortable with this line.
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Since 2014, teams that lose by double-digits in Week 1 cover the spread 63% of the time in Week 2. That criteria fits the Panthers, who have a chance to get their first win of the season on the national stage.
Home underdogs perform well against the spread historically, especially when they are taking on divisional opponents. We also don’t think there will be a ton of points in this game, which increases the importance of every point scored and makes the underdog’s spread more valuable.
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