Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs had 154 total yards in Week 16 as the lead back
This is the Lions and 49ers first matchup since the 49ers beat the Lions in the NFC Championship Game, 34-31, on Jan. 28, 2024
Lions quarterback Jared Goff has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in all but four games this season
On Monday Night Football, in Week 17 of the NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers will host the Detroit Lions.
The 49ers are 6-9 (5-10 ATS), while the Lions are 13-2 (10-4-1 ATS).
Below is a four-leg Same Game Parlay with odds of +456 for this game, featuring players like Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and George Kittle.
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The 49ers are the home team here, but this team is a far cry from the version we saw in 2023.
You know, the version that beat the Lions in the NFC Championship Game, which actually happened at the beginning of this year.
Before considering anything else, you have to believe that the Lions, especially head coach Dan Campbell, want their revenge. They lost by just three points and missed out on the Super Bowl.
The Lions will face a 49ers defense that’s allowed multiple touchdown passes in three of their last five games. The two games where opposing quarterbacks fell short include the game against the Los Angeles Rams, which was a 12-6 game.
Against running backs, the 49ers are allowing close to 100 rushing yards per game and one rushing touchdown per game. While the Lions don’t have David Montgomery in the lineup due to injury, they still have Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Lions have a plethora of injuries on defense, but they’re still holding teams to just 19.9 points per game. They're coming off a game in which they held the Chicago Bears to 17.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are allowing 23.3 per game and allowed 29 on the road last week to the Miami Dolphins.
49ers left tackle Trent Williams has been placed on injured reserve, which should invite pressure from the Lions.
I think the Lions will try to pour it on here. Resting starters won’t happen.
Lions win 31-21.
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In his first game as the lead back in Week 16, Gibbs had 23 carries for 109 yards and one touchdown. He also caught four passes for 45 yards.
He had 27 touches and 154 total yards.
Now, he’ll take on a 49ers defense that’s surrendering approximately 24 carries for 98 yards and one rushing touchdown per game.
They’re also allowing about five catches for 35 yards to running backs.
This all signals plenty of production for Gibbs. He’ll find his way into the end zone.
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As mentioned, the 49ers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of his last five games. They’ve managed to hold teams to less than that over the past two weeks, but again, one game was on Thursday Night Football in a strange game against the Rams that ended with a 12-6 score.
In all, they’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns six times this year.
This week, they’re facing a quarterback in Jared Goff, who has multiple passing touchdowns in all but four games this season and has done so in four straight games heading into this week.
Gibbs is the type of player that could account for one, if not both, of Goff's touchdowns.
One matchup to watch is Lions wide receiver Tim Patrick against 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward.
Ward has allowed 28 catches on 48 targets (58.3%) for 393 yards and four touchdowns. He’s allowed three touchdowns over the last four weeks.
All Lions outside receivers, including Patrick and Jameson Williams, will have a favorable matchup.
Look for one of Goff’s touchdowns to go to an outside receiver.
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The 49ers offense has been extremely inconsistent, especially as the season went on, but Kittle has managed to stay productive.
He has 106-plus yards in two of his last three games.
As for this line of 68.5 yards, he’s had 69 or more six times.
The Lions have somewhat held the tight end position down, allowing just 35 receiving yards per game. However, they allowed 95 to the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago.
Kittle is unique in that he’s essentially the 49ers No. 1 target in the offense. In Week 15, he led the team in receiving snaps, and in Week 16, he was second, trailing Jauan Jennings by two snaps.
He runs a route on 85% of his receiving snaps. He’s finished above that number in each of the last three weeks. He's getting more opportunities.
I expect Kittle to be the top target in a game where they’ll trail throughout.
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