Monday Night Football SGP Week 16: Best Same Game Parlay Bets for Packers vs. Saints

• The Saints are allowing one rushing touchdown per game to opposing running backs

• Packers wide receiver Christian Watson has been targeted 51 times this season. Of those, 36.7% have come on passes 20-plus yards downfield

• In games where the Saints start a quarterback other than Derek Carr, they average just 16 points per game

On Monday Night Football, in Week 16 of the NFL season, the Green Bay Packers will host the New Orleans Saints. 

The Packers are 10-4 (7-6-1 ATS), while the Saints are 5-9 (6-8 ATS). 

Below is a four-leg Same Game Parlay with odds of +370 for this game, featuring players like Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, and Josh Jacobs. At the time of this write-up, few New Orleans Saints props were available.

All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. At Caesars, you can double your winnings on your next 10 bets after using promo code WSNDYW during account registration and wagering for just $1.

Packers -14 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

The weather forecast in Green Bay suggests a decent chance of snow. Whether this happens or not, I’m struggling to find ways for the Saints offense to keep up. 

In games where anyone other than Derek Carr has started at quarterback for them, the Saints are averaging just 16 points. One of those games was a 27-point outlier. Last week, they scored 19 points, but there was a weird situation at the end of that game against the Washington Commanders where the play clock stopped running for no apparent reason, allowing the Saints to get a last-second touchdown score well inside the five-yard line. 

It was later revealed that the clock stoppage was an error. So, I’ll hardly count that toward the Saints offensive record with Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener as the starting quarterback. 

In this game, Rattler will start. So far, he’s completed 57.5% of his passes for 706 yards (5.9 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He also has six turnover-worthy plays. 

Also, the Saints top offensive weapon, Alvin Kamara, is likely out with a thigh injury. Other notable injuries include Bub Means, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Juwan Johnson. None of them have practiced as of Thursday. 

So, it begs the question—who the heck is playing at the skill positions for the Saints? 

This feels like one of those games where the Packers could put up just 17 points and still cover. The Saints are in dire straights. 

There’s no way I’m backing them here.

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Christian Watson Under 3.5 Receptions (-184) at Caesars Sportsbook

Through 13 games, Watson has 29 catches, averaging about 2.2 per game. He’s had four catches or more in just three of them. 

Of his targets, 36.7% of them come 20-plus yards downfield. He’s targeted here the most. 

I could see the Packers maybe delivering a couple of deep passes to him, but against this Saints offense, I’m not sure how needed it’ll be to get Watson involved.

This is a high over/under on receptions for a player who’s primarily a deep threat in a game where his team is favored by two touchdowns.

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Josh Jacobs Anytime TD (-280) at Caesars Sportsbook

While Watson may hardly need to be used, I’m expecting the exact opposite for Jacobs. 

I think he’s going to get plenty of work, early and often. 

He’s averaging about 19 carries per game and has had 26 in two of the last four games. 

Interestingly, though, he’s only had triple-digit rushing yards three times all year, averaging 4.3 yards per carry.

Well, he’ll have a chance for his fourth triple-digit game. The Saints are allowing 105 rushing yards per game and 4.86 yards per carry. 

As for rushing touchdowns to the running back position, they’re allowing exactly one per game. They’ve surrendered two over the last three games. 

With a spread this high, look for the Packers to build a lead and run the ball plenty to drain the clock. 

Jacobs will find the end zone.

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Tucker Kraft Under 3.5 Receptions (-166) at Caesars Sportsbook

There are some high reception over/under’s in this game, and Kraft’s 3.5 is another one. He’s been used more than Watson this season but still has 41 receptions through 14 games, which is an average of about three per game. 

He’s recorded four catches or more in just four games this season and has only done it once over the last five. 

Not only is there a trend of this not happening for him lately, but again, I’m not sure how many times the Packers will need to throw in this game. 

Taking the under here again.

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