The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed just one rushing touchdown to running backs this year as they take on the league’s leading rusher, Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry.
Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey has 19 receptions for 350 yards and two touchdowns over the last four games.
The Chargers allow just 1.9 points per game in the first quarter, which is the least in the NFL.
On Monday Night Football in Week 12 of the NFL season, the 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers will host the 7-4 Baltimore Ravens. The Chargers are on a four-game winning streak as the Ravens are coming off a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I dub this game the “Harbaugh Bowl,” as Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh will take on his brother, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh.
Below is a four-leg Same Game Parlay with odds of +3300 for this game, featuring players like Diontae Johnson, Ladd McConkey, and more. This is one of my more bold four-leg Same Game Parlays for Monday Night Football this season.
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The Ravens are coming off a loss, and they may be headed for another one here as they take on an incredibly stout Chargers defense.
The Chargers have allowed just one rushing touchdown to running backs this season. This is a huge asset, as they’ll take on Ravens running back Derrick Henry, who’s scored in every game this season.
Further, the Chargers allowed one passing touchdown or less seven times from Week 1 to 9. However, that has changed over the last two weeks, as they’ve allowed five passing touchdowns.
For the Ravens to pull off a win here, they’ll need to rely more on the pass, which is certainly OK as quarterback Lamar Jackson is second in the NFL in passing yards with 2,876 and second in passing touchdowns with 25.
The Ravens can certainly do some damage through the air, but I worry about the rushing attack.
As for the Chargers offense, quarterback Justin Herbert has been playing well, tossing multiple touchdowns in three of the last four games. In those games, he’s thrown for no less than 279 yards.
This season, he’s thrown just one interception. He has started to find his groove with a wide receiving corps that may not be loaded with talent but has several role players finding ways to produce.
The Ravens' pass defense is the worst in the league, allowing over 304 yards per game and nearly two passing touchdowns.
Between the Chargers' run defense and the Ravens' pass defense, the Chargers will cover here and potentially win outright at home.
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Speaking of Herbert finding his groove with his receivers, rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey has benefited most.
This season, he has 43 receptions for 615 yards and four touchdowns.
Over the last four games, he has 19 receptions for 350 yards and two touchdowns.
So, over the last four weeks, he’s posted 44% of his receptions, 57% of his yards, and 50% of his touchdowns.
He’s really started to come on recently, including two games with 111-plus yards over the last four games.
He hasn’t scored in the last three weeks, but the Ravens allowed 1.45 touchdowns per game to wide receivers, and I’d expect McConkey to be the beneficiary of any touchdown pass thrown by Herbert right now.
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OK, here’s the first long-shot bet I’ve added to this parlay: Ravens wide receiver Diontae Johnson scoring a touchdown.
The odds are understandably quite long.
After all, Johnson has just one catch over the last three games with the Ravens.
Here, Johnson will be in his fourth game. Has he perfected the playbook? Probably not, but he’s as acclimated to it as he could be.
As mentioned, the Chargers have allowed five passing touchdowns over the last two weeks. In that span, all five of those touchdowns have gone to wide receivers.
The Chargers' outside cornerbacks, Kristian Fulton and Cam Hart, do line up on both sides.
However, with Johnson being a newer piece to this offense, I’d expect Fulton to prioritize Rashod Bateman while Hart works on Johnson.
Hart has played in seven games this season and 242 snaps in coverage.
He’s allowed 21 catches on 36 targets (58.3%) for 191 yards and two touchdowns.
Both of those touchdowns have come over the last three games. He also allowed one last week.
Johnson has played just 15 snaps over the last three games, so this prediction is based on him getting more opportunities here four games into his Ravens career and in a somewhat favorable matchup.
The Ravens will have trouble running here, and I think we will see Johnson get in the end zone.
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The Chargers allow the least points per game in the first quarter with 1.9, which is the best in the NFL.
As for the Ravens, they’re seventh at 3.5.
Additionally, if you look at who gets to 10 points first, you’d be surprised to know that the Chargers have gotten their first in nine of 10 games.
That’s certainly a testament to their defense.
There’s an argument to be made that the Ravens rushing attack could overcome the Chargers run defense, but 10 games in and allowing just one touchdown, I don’t buy it.
Additionally, Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has been disappointing.
Yes, he’s one of the greatest kickers ever, but his field goal percentage is just 72.7%.
Meanwhile, Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker is at 91.3%.
Look for this game to be tied or the Chargers slightly ahead at the end of the first.
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