Monday Night Football Prop Bets Wild Card Round: Fade Kyren Williams Against the Vikings Front Seven

• The Los Angeles Rams won the 2024-2025 NFC West division title

• Jordan Addison leads the Minnesota Vikings in red zone receptions

• The Rams defense ranks below league average in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After winning the NFC West division title, the Los Angeles Rams have secured the fourth overall seed in the NFC standings and get to play at home for the first round of the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Rams, they host the Minnesota Vikings and their vaunted defense after they lost to the Detroit Lions in week 18. Minnesota fields arguably one of the more formidable defenses in the league as they enter the playoffs ranked top-15 in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, Adjusted Sack Rate, and Pressure Rate.

That is a sharp contrast from the Rams' level of defensive production as Los Angeles resides in the bottom half of the board in the same previously mentioned metrics. Their inability to defend at a competitive level gives the Vikings offense a chance to round back into form after a severely underwhelming performance in their season finale.

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Aaron Jones Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After being held to just 45 yards by the Lions, Aaron Jones has the opportunity to bounce back against the Rams front seven. Stopping the run has been an issue for the Rams this season as they enter the playoffs ranked 21st in Def Rush DVOA, 20th in Success Rate, 20th in EPA, and 24th in Adjusted Line Yards. Their low mark in Def Rush Success Rate is vital as it indicates the Rams struggle to stop opposing running backs from cutting the distance to gain in half on early downs, as well as convert on third down.

The Rams also anchor their linebackers in coverage at a heavy rate, giving Jones more room to work with when he gets to the second level of their defense. Especially with their safeties forced to shadow Justin Jefferson, increasing the likelihood of Jones generating an explosive run should he skate past their linebackers. With Jones in a favorable position to routinely gash the Rams' weak front seven, shop around and escalator bet his rushing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs.

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Jordan Addison Anytime Touchdown (+145) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

While Justin Jefferson commands defensive attention in the form of double teams, that has helped free up space for Jordan Addison to exploit and help give Sam Darnold a reliable target to throw to when in the red zone. This has resulted in Addison nearly matching Jefferson in red zone targets this season while leading the team in receptions. Against a secondary who ranks near the bottom of the board in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate, expect Addison to consistently create separation and haul one in for six.

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Kyren Williams Under 83.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

On the other side of the field, the Rams' offense are tasked with a far tougher assignment as they face off against a Vikings defense who ranks near the top of the board in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their front seven plays a major role in their high marks as the Vikings rank first overall in Blitz Rate and sixth in Pressure Rate. That spells potential trouble for Kyren Williams as he will find himself combating against a heavy amount of contact in the trenches, hurting his chances of churning out rushing yards.

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Matthew Stafford Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

With Williams expected to be bottled up in the trenches, Matthew Stafford may receive an uptick in pass attempts to help try and stretch out the Vikings coverage. Especially if Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are able to create separation off the line, giving Stafford high-quality passing lanes for him to exploit and sustain drives down the field. Oddsmakers also project this to be a close contest until the very end, meaning we may avoid a late run-heavy game script which would eat away at Stafford’s pass attempts.

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