Monday Night Football Prop Bets Week 17: Expect Both Offenses to Thrive in a NFC Conference Championship Rematch

• The San Francisco 49ers beat the Detroit Lions in last year’s NFC Conference championship

• Detroit can potentially secure the NFC North division title and number one overall seed with a win

• San Francisco’s front seven ranks below league average in Def Rush Success Rate and Adjusted Line Yards

After losing to the San Francisco 49ers in last year’s NFC Conference championship, the Detroit Lions have revenge on their mind when they head to California for Monday night’s primetime matchup. Not only do the Lions have the opportunity to avenge their loss, but they can potentially secure the NFC North division title and number one overall seed with a win should the Green Bay Packers also beat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

To help bolster the Lions chances of securing the win, Detroit may lean heavier on their star running back Jahmyr Gibbs as he will have the opportunity to run wild against the 49ers defense. Stopping the run has been an issue for San Francisco this season as they enter the contest ranked well below league average in Def Rush Success Rate and Adjusted Line Yards. On the other side of the field, expect Brock Purdy to pick apart the gaps in Detroit’s coverage as injuries have ravaged their secondary as of late. 

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Jahmyr Gibbs Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While the Lions have the opportunity to strengthen their chances of making a run to the Super Bowl, the 49ers have already been eliminated from being able to make the playoffs. A stunning low level of play for a team who was projected to be one of the best in the league, yet their injuries and lack of defensive production was too much to overcome. Their front seven has played a major role in their struggles as the 49ers rank below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards.

While the 49ers front seven has struggled, their secondary has excelled in coverage as their high mark in Def Pass DVOA indicates. To combat against their coverage, expect the Lions to call a heavier dose of the run to help keep their drives alive. That puts Jahmyr Gibbs in a great position to put together a dominant outing, especially while running behind an offensive line who leads the league in Adjusted Line Yards. When alternate yardage markets open up, place smaller wagers on his alternate overs as well.

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Brock Purdy Over 254.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

Speaking of injuries, the Detroit Lions defense has been decimated as of late after Carlton Davis and DJ Reader suffered season ending injuries earlier in the month. Both players played a key role for their defense as Davis was their shutdown corner who shadowed the other team’s best pass catcher while DJ Reader created havoc in the trenches. Since both players went on IR, Detroit's defensive production has rapidly declined.

While the 49ers offense has also dealt with injuries, Brock Purdy still finds himself surrounded by a deep group of pass catchers who are capable of exploiting the Lions gaps in coverage. Purdy will also find himself operating in a clean pocket as the Lions defense ranks near dead last in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. With the Lions struggling to get in the backfield, the 49ers pass catchers will have more time to create separation from their coverage and increase the quality of Purdy’s passing lanes.

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George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+150) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Even without Reader, the Lions defense has still excelled at stopping the run as they currently rank in the top half of the board in Def Rush DVOA and Adjusted Line Yards. While their heavy use of the blitz helps them slow down opposing running backs by plugging the gaps in the trenches, it leaves their secondary isolated and vulnerable to getting beat. Back the 49ers current leader in red zone targets as George Kittle will have plenty of opportunities to exploit their gaps in coverage and haul one in for six.

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