Monday Night Football Prop Bets Week 15: A Pair of Props For Monday’s Two Game Slate

• The Minnesota Vikings are one game back from first in the NFC North division standings

• The Atlanta Falcons are currently out of the NFC playoff picture

• Chicago’s front seven ranks below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Minnesota, the Vikings have blown past preseason expectations as they are currently 11-2 and just one game back from first in the NFC North division standings. Against Chicago, the Vikings have a great opportunity to stay in contention for the division title as their defense terrorizes the Bears underwhelming offense. Expect Caleb Williams to be under relentless pressure, hampering his chances of generating pass production.

Shortly after their kickoff, we turn our attention towards the Atlanta Falcons as Kirk Cousins has the opportunity to bounce back against the lowly Las Vegas Raiders secondary. Securing the win is vital for Atlanta as they are currently out of the NFC playoff picture with only four weeks left of play. As of writing, the Falcons are one game back from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South division standings and two games back from the Washington Commanders for the last wildcard spot.

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Caleb Williams Longest Completion Under 33.5 Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since getting selected with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, Caleb Williams has yet to elevate Chicago’s offense as the Bears head into week 15 ranked below league average in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. While his decision making and tendency to take ill advised sacks plays a role in their low marks on offense, his offensive line has been dreadful as they rank 30th in Adjusted Line Yards and 32nd in Adjusted Sack Rate.

With his offensive line struggling to hold their ground, Williams has been under relentless pressure and forced to make plays while on the run for underwhelming results. Against the Vikings defense, expect more of the same as Minnesota enters the contest ranked first overall in Blitz Rate and fifth in Pressure Rate. With less time to let plays develop, the Bears wideouts will struggle to create separation from a Vikings secondary who ranks top-5 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

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Aaron Jones Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

On the other side of the field, the Vikings Aaron Jones has the opportunity to run wild against a Bears front seven who struggles to stop the run as Chicago currently ranks in the bottom half of the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. While their front seven has struggled, the Bears secondary actually grades out well in coverage. That may lead to an uptick in carries for Jones to help sustain drives down the field, increasing his chances of clearing the over on his rushing yardage prop.

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Kirk Cousins Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

After losing their last four games in a row, the Atlanta Falcons are no longer in the playoff picture as they are two games back from the Commanders for the last wildcard spot. Fortunately for Atlanta, Kirk Cousins has the opportunity to round back into form as he faces off against a Raiders secondary who has steadily regressed throughout the season. Once ranked in the top half of the board in most advanced metrics, the Raiders secondary has dropped down to as low as 25th in Def Pass Success Rate and 26th in EPA.

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Bijan Robinson Under 81.5 Rushing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook 

While Cousins is expected to thrive, his star running back Bijan Robinson may find it tough to generate rush production when in the middle of the field. The Raiders front seven have excelled at containing running backs in the trenches as their defense enters the contest ranked 8th overall in Def Adjusted Line Yards and 13th in Def Rush Success Rate. With Cousins in a position to pick apart their gaps in coverage, Robinson may see a decrease in carries which increases the likelihood of him staying under this total.

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