Monday Night Football Prop Bets Week 13: Expect Bo Nix to Take Advantage of the Browns Regressing Defense

• Bo Nix is surging up the oddsboard for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award

• The Denver Broncos are currently the seventh seed in the AFC Conference playoff picture

• The Cleveland Browns defense ranks below league average in Def Pass DVOA and EPA

After getting off to a rough start to the season, the Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has caught fire and is making a serious case for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. In his last outing, Nix shredded the Las Vegas Raiders defense for 273 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns in a 29-19 victory over their AFC West division foes. With their win, the Denver Broncos are currently in the playoff picture as the seventh seed in the AFC.

Against Cleveland, Nix will have the opportunity to thrive against a Browns defense who has continued to regress. Heading into Monday, the Browns defense ranks well below league average in Def Pass DVOA and EPA. While Nix is in a position to succeed, the Browns Jameis Winston will find it tough to generate pass production as the Broncos defense has arguably been one of the best units in the league. Especially when having to combat against relentless pressure as the Broncos rank top-10 in Pressure Rate.

As for where to wager on Monday night’s AFC Conference matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos, FanDuel Sportsbook has been the front runner for the market as they offer a wide range of props for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with FanDuel Sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, you can claim $150 in bonus bets after creating an account and winning your first bet of at least $5.

Bo Nix Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

After a hot start to the season, the Browns defense has continued to regress as Cleveland currently ranks 21st overall in Def DVOA. Their secondary has played a major role in their low marks on defense as the Browns back end enters the contest against the Broncos ranked 24th in Def Pass DVOA and 18th in Def Pass EPA. Even when generating pressure at a league high rate, the Browns struggles in coverage leaves them exposed against productive pass attacks.

That gives the Broncos surging rookie quarterback Bo Nix the opportunity to continue to succeed as he has been scorching hot the past few weeks of play. Especially with his offensive line capable of neutralizing the Browns pressure as the Broncos currently rank fourth overall in Off Adjusted Sack Rate. With a clean pocket and extra time to let his receivers create separation from the Browns coverage, Nix should capitalize on his higher quality passing lanes and clear the over on his completions prop.

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Bo Nix Longest Rush Under 11.5 Yards (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

With the Browns front line expected to struggle with maintaining their top ranked mark in Pressure Rate against a stout Broncos offensive line, Nix may see a decrease in scramble opportunities while he sits in a clean pocket and picks apart Cleveland’s gaps in coverage. The Browns heavy use of the blitz also clogs running lanes on the outside, limiting the chance for Nix to bounce one out past the tackles. Barring a broken play, Nix should struggle to threaten the under on his longest rush prop.

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Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown (+145) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

While Bo Nix may see an uptick in pass attempts when in the middle of the field, the Broncos offense may revert to a heavier dose of the run when in the red zone as the Browns defense has struggled with limiting opposing rush production when backed up into their own 20. As of writing, the Browns front seven ranks 21st overall in Def Rush EPA and 18th in Def Rush DVOA. By calling the run, the Broncos can also neutralize the variance that comes with throwing into heavy coverage while in a shortened field.

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Jameis Winston Under 230.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

Heading into Monday, Jameis Winston is due for some harsh regression as he faces off against a Broncos defense who excels at limiting opposing pass production with top-10 marks in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Sack Rate, and Pressure Rate. With Jameis having to throw into low quality passing lanes while under relentless pressure, expect an underwhelming performance from the Browns quarterback to the benefit of the under on his passing yards prop.

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