Monday Night Football Prop Bets Week 12: Expect a Lack of Pass Production Against the Chargers Secondary

• Lamar Jackson is listed as one of the betting favorites to win his second straight MVP award

• The Los Angeles Chargers are two games back from first in the AFC West division standings

• The Chargers defense ranks top-6 in Def Pass Success Rate, DVOA, EPA, and Adjusted Sack Rate

After winning the NFL MVP award in 2023-2024, Lamar Jackson is building a strong case to win it again as he continues to shred opposing defenses with his elite dual-threat ability. Especially after the acquisition of star running back Derrick Henry as the Ravens pass catchers have generated higher quality passing lanes while opposing line backing units have to creep up into the trenches to try and slow down the bull back. 

Unfortunately for Lamar and the Ravens' pass attack, they face off against a Los Angeles Chargers secondary who excels in coverage. Heading into week 12, the Chargers defense ranks top-6 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Sack Rate. Their defense has played a major role in their success this season as Jim Harbaugh is 7-3 in his first year with the Chargers and just two games back from the Kansas City Chiefs for first place in the AFC West division standings.

As for where to wager on Monday night’s AFC Conference matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers, BetMGM Sportsbook has been the top choice for the market as they offer an abundance of props for their users to choose from and at very favorable odds. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM Sportsbook, you can get up to $1,500 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

Lamar Jackson Under 238.5 Passing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Even though Lamar has made massive strides with his passing production, regression looms large as he is set to face off against one of the best coverage units in the league. As of writing, the Chargers' defense ranks 6th in Def Pass DVOA, 5th in Def Pass EPA, and 2nd in Def Pass Success Rate. A major reason for their high marks in coverage stems from their scheme as the Chargers blitz at one of the lowest rates in the league while anchoring their linebackers in coverage to help plug gaps in the middle.

While this scheme normally hurts a teams ability to get to the quarterback, the Chargers' front line excels at collapsing the pocket as they enter the contest ranked fourth overall in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. This allows the Chargers linebackers to stay in coverage until they are forced to crash down against a scrambling quarterback. With Lamar having to throw on the run and into low-quality passing lanes, expect the Ravens quarterback to go under on his passing yardage prop.

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Lamar Jackson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only will Lamar struggle to expose the gaps in the Chargers coverage when in the middle of the field, but connecting with his pass catchers will prove to be even more troublesome when in scoring position. To counter this, the Ravens may use Lamar in designed runs while Derrick Henry receives more carries to help exploit the Chargers' low mark in Def Adjusted Line Yards. With each carry, the likelihood of the under-cashing on Lamar’s passing touchdown prop increases.

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J.K. Dobbins Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-121) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Speaking of struggling, it’s going to be a long night for the Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins as he gets the unfortunate task of having to run against a Ravens front seven who ranks near the top of the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Especially when his own offensive line fails to open up holes for him in the trenches as the Chargers enter the contest ranked 28th overall in Adjusted Line Yards.

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Justin Herbert Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

After a hot start to the season, Justin Herbert has the opportunity to continue to play at a high level as he faces off against a Ravens secondary who ranks below league average in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. With the Chargers ground game expected to struggle, Herbert may receive an uptick in pass attempts to help sustain drives down the field. Factor in oddsmakers projecting this to be a tight scoring affair and we may avoid a late run heavy game script which simultaneously drains the clock.

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