Monday Night Football Prop Bets Week 11: Texans Defense to Dominate on Primetime

• The Houston Texans defense ranks top-10 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

• Houston currently has a two game lead over the Indianapolis Colts for first in the AFC South 

• Cooper Rush was held to just 45 total passing yards against the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend

While generating offensive production was already a struggle when Dak Prescott was under center, the Dallas Cowboys offense have regressed even more since Cooper Rush got the starting nod when Prescott went down with an injury. In his first start, Rush was held to just 45 total passing yards in a 34-6 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Against the AFC South division leaders, Rush will continue to underwhelm as the Houston Texans defense ranks top-10 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

On the other side of the field, the Texans offense will potentially receive a major bump in production with their star wide receiver Nico Collins expected to make his return from injury. With Collins back in the lineup, opposing defenses can no longer stack the box as they now have to stretch out in coverage to cover both Collins and Tank Dell. This also frees up space for the Texans running back Joe Mixon, giving him more room to work with when he gets to the second level of their defense.

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Cooper Rush Under 184.5 Passing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook 

It was a deflating performance from Cooper Rush in his first start with the Dallas Cowboys as the backup quarterback finished the contest throwing for just 45 yards in an embarrassing loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. To make matters worse for Rush, he was under relentless pressure for a majority of the contest which forced him into making low quality throws for minimal success. Against Houston, Rush may find himself under constant pressure again as the Texans defense ranks fourth overall in Pressure Rate.

Not only do the Texans collapse the pocket at a consistent rate, but their back end also excels in coverage as Houston’s secondary ranks fourth overall in Def Pass DVOA, third in Def Pass Success Rate, and eighth in Def Pass EPA. With Dallas lacking consistent production from all of their receivers not named CeeDee Lamb, the Texans' secondary should have no issue with neutralizing the Cowboys' pass attack by shading their coverage toward Lamb while forcing Rush to throw while under pressure.

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Rico Dowdle Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-106) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle will also be in a position to struggle as the Texans front seven enters the contest ranked above league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. A major reason for the Texans' high marks in stopping the run stems from their ability to plug rushing lanes as their front line ranks fourth overall in Def Adjusted Line Yards. Dowdle also still splits carries with Ezekiel Elliott, lowering his ceiling with less rush attempts.

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Joe Mixon Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

On the other side of the field, Joe Mixon is poised for a big outing as he gets the benefit of running wild against a Cowboys front seven who ranks 28th or worse in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Especially with Nico Collins expected to make his return from injury, commanding defensive attention and freeing up space for Mixon to exploit when he reaches the second level of the Cowboys defense.

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CJ Stroud Under 0.5 Interception (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook 

With Nico Collins on the field, his presence also frees up coverage for the other Houston pass catchers to help give CJ Stroud higher-quality passing lanes. This helps decrease the potential of a danger-worthy throw, minimizing the chance of Stroud throwing an interception. Throwing while under pressure may be an issue with Defensive Player of the Year contender Micah Parsons lined up at the edge, yet Stroud has shown he has no issue with getting the ball out in a hurry in an offense that is built on quick outs.

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