David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+165) at FanDuel
Montgomery closed with minus odds as an anytime TD scorer in 14 of 16 games, so the value for him at +165 is hard to ignore. He cracked the pylons 13 times during the regular season and once in two playoff games thus far, and he’s still the top back despite splitting carries with Jahmyr Gibbs.
The 49ers have a great run defense, but Montgomery usually gets a ton of looks near the goal line. He’s also more physical than Gibbs and is more of a threat to pound the ball in short yardage because of his ability to run between the A and B gaps.
This is the biggest game of the year, and teams are going to go to what works best for them. Montgomery led his team in touchdowns and should get his share of opportunities.
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Christian McCaffrey Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel
McCaffrey went under this total in three straight games but caught seven passes last week and is going against a defense that gave up the second-most passing yards per game (256.9). The Lions also allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, which means the skilled back could get involved in the short passing game almost as an extension of the running game, though it would help him get over his receiving total.
Deebo Samuel is questionable with a shoulder injury, and if he cannot go, McCaffrey should play an even larger role both as a runner and pass-catcher.
San Fran’s game plan is likely going to revolve around maintaining control of the clock and holding the Detroit offense on the sideline. If that plays out, they’ll probably look to stick with safer plays than take downfield risks, which bodes well for McCaffrey’s overs.
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Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Run Over 15.5 Yards (-114) at FanDuel
While Montgomery is the lead back, Gibbs is a highlight machine with game-breaking speed that can regularly produce momentum-churning plays.
The rookie back from Alabama had a long of 31 yards last week (on a touchdown scamper) and beat this line in 10 of his last 13 games. Even a great defense like the one the Niners have will find it tough to contain his speed late into a physical, hard-fought game.
The concern here could be that Gibbs doesn’t get a ton of looks late in the game if the Lions are behind, but he’s been very consistent this year and has earned our trust.
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George Kittle Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel
Kittle only caught four passes in the divisional round but made the most of his opportunities, turning those receptions into 81 yards and a touchdown. He also had seven receptions and 126 yards in San Fran’s other biggest game of the year, a Week 17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
With Deebo potentially ready to miss the game, the all-important Kittle could become an even more prominent figure in the passing game. He’s already in a great spot because of the Lions’ porous pass defense regardless of if Samuel plays or not.
Kittle is most effective in the play-action and should get targets even if the Niners dominate the ground game. But if they’re behind, he’ll be sent on lots of deep routes, which works toward him going over.
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How to Watch Lions vs. 49ers
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
When: Sunday, January 28, 3:30/6:30 p.m. PT/ET
TV/Streaming: FOX
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