Jayden Daniels 2024 NFL Draft Odds: Which Team Will Draft the Heisman Winner?

LSU quarterback and Heisman winner Jayden Daniels was named the most outstanding performer in college football a year ago, yet it’s still unclear where he’ll be playing his professional football in September.

Daniels racked up a record-setting stat line of 4.964 total yards, 50 total touchdowns, and only four interceptions in his fifth season (second at LSU), yet opinions remain divided because of his extremely high floor but risky decision-making and slight frame.

What do the betting odds imply about which team will draft Jayden Daniels, and where will he ultimately fall? Let’s dive into the numbers.

Jayden Daniels 2024 NFL Draft Odds

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Where Will Jayden Daniels Be Picked?

Pro-Daniels fans, scouts, and pundits point to his extreme athleticism and ability to make plays outside of the pocket as his clear strengths. He has a great deep ball and a combination of elite speed and vision that make him a nightmare to contain once he breaks the contain and turns the ball upfield.

The concerns arise because of who Daniels was throwing to (namely Malik Nabers and Thomas Jr.) and because of how many huge hits he received as a runner. Although he’s listed at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, he appears much lighter on game day and will struggle to remain healthy if he does not learn how to protect himself.

Daniels’ upside is tremendously high, but he could be in for a baptism by fire if he does not go into an organization with weapons and/or a line to protect him.

The former Tiger is a -330 favorite to be taken by the Washington Commanders with the second pick. However, those odds could change during the lead-up to the draft after Daniels’ agent announced that he was unhappy with Washington’s pre-draft evaluation process.

While Caleb Williams seems to have locked down the top spot, Daniels is also alive at the third slot (+270 odds pick owned by the New England Patriots). He plummets to +1500 odds to be taken fourth, and the odds grow even longer lower down the board.

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Will Jayden Daniels Be Drafted in the Top Three?

The betting odds suggest that Daniels is very likely to be taken in the top three picks. 

Daniels’ -330 odds to be taken second translate to a 76.74 percent implied probability, while the +270 odds equal 27.03 percent implied probability. For comparison, his +1500 odds of having his name called fourth translate to just a 6.25 percent implied probability.

There’s a possibility that a team that’s lower down on the draft board could attempt to trade up to the top three, or even the fourth slot if he falls that far. However, both the Commander and Patriots (along with the Bears) need quarterbacks to reboot their franchises, and Daniels’ ceiling should keep him in the top three.

Will Jayden Daniels Slide Down the Board?

Daniels has a fairly clean injury history. The only real issue he dealt with was a concussion in 2023, but he had no major damage to his upper or lower body. That’s significant considering one of the major concerns is that his style of play and lighter frame will lead to him taking more punishment than a pocket passer.

Even if Daniels somehow slides outside of the top three, there’s an extremely strong chance that a team would be willing to trade up to the fourth or fifth pick to take him. 

Betting odds suggest that either of those slots could belong to Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who scouts are also reportedly high on and would encourage their front office to trade up to acquire. Daniels is widely regarded as the better player, which would mean those teams and more would likely be interested in acquiring his services.

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Which Team Will Draft Jayden Daniels in the 2024 NFL Draft?

The Commanders have the best odds to select Daniels. They will have their pick of the board aside from Williams, who has a 99.5 percent chance (-20000 odds) of being taken first.

The Patriots will likely take one of Daniels, Drake Maye, or McCarthy. The teams at fourth and fifth—the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers—don’t need a QB, so in the event he does fall further than expected, there’s a near guarantee that at least one team will attempt to trade up to take him.

The biggest question is likely whether the Commanders will select Daniels or Maye. Although Maye was the favorite earlier in the offseason, Daniels’ odds in spite of his agent’s remarks suggest he is their guy (at the time of writing).

Which Quarterbacks Will Be Taken in the First Round of the 2024 NFL Draft?

Williams, Daniels, and Maye are all widely viewed as top-three picks. McCarthy, whom his Michigan coach and current Chargers coach, Jim Harbaugh, referred to as the best QB in the draft, is a wild card. He could sneak all the way up to second (odds shortened from +2000 to +1000), or he could potentially fall outside of the top 10.

Veteran Oregon QB and Washington gunslinger Michael Penix Jr., a national runner-up, are also hot names in the first-round prospects list. Others such as Spencer Rattle, Jordan Travis, and Joe Milton should also hear their names called eventually, though likely not in the first round.

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How to Watch the 2024 NFL Draft

• When: April 25 @ 8:00 p.m. ET (day one), April 26 @ 7:00 p.m. ET (day two), April 27 @ 12:00 p.m. ET (day three)

• Where: Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza, Detroit, MI

• TV: ABC, ESPN, ESPN Deportes, and NFL Network

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