How Does Free Agency Impact NFL Super Bowl Futures Odds?

The NFL’s free agency period will begin on March 12, meaning that the current 2026 Super Bowl odds will only be accurate for less than a month. 

Free agency can breathe life into one team while stripping the soul of another. The most substantial proof of that is Saquon Barkley, the best offensive player on the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles who decided not to extend his contract with the New York Giants last spring.

The Eagles (+650) lead NFL Super Bowl odds at the time of writing, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (+700), Buffalo Bills (+750), and Detroit Lions (+900). 

Those rankings are only temporary, as several big-name stars could be wearing uniforms different from the ones they last put on when the NFL returns in September. 

Here are the free-agent dominos with the greatest ability to impact NFL futures odds.

Find the most current Super Bowl 2026 odds in the table below, and place your bets, today!

Best NFL Free Agents by Super Bowl Impact

10. Nick Bolton (LB, Kansas City Chiefs)

Bolton, only 24 years old, was the Chiefs’ leading tackler with 106 total (73 solo) and had 11 tackles for loss, three sacks, six pass deflections, an interception, a forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries. He isn’t great in coverage but is magnetized toward running backs whenever they get the ball and possesses elite speed to get from sideline to sideline in a hurry. The Chiefs would take a step back if they lost him.

9. Haason Reddick (EDGE, New York Jets)

Reddick basically didn’t play until Week 8 and likely came in out of shape after an offseason filled with failed contract negotiations. He recorded at least 11 sacks in four straight seasons before that and is one of the best pass-rushers in the game at his best, although he is 30 years old. The modern NFL is all about quarterback production, and a player as disruptive as Reddick is invaluable. 

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8. Dre Greenlaw (LB, San Francisco 49ers)

Greenlaw tore his Achilles in the 2024 Super Bowl and only made it back for two games before he suffered a calf injury. If he’s healthy, he’s one of the 10 best linebackers in the sport thanks to his fleet feet and intelligent positioning in coverage. The Niners are currently just outside the top five in Super Bowl odds at +1200.

7. Zack Baun (LB, Philadelphia Eagles)

Baun burst onto the scene last year, ultimately becoming a Defensive Player of the Year finalist in his first season as a full-time linebacker. He just had 151 tackles, 3.5 sacks, five forced fumbles, an interception, a fumble recovery, and led Pro Football Focus’ linebacker rankings. Philly won the Super Bowl and is favored to repeat, and he was arguably the best player on its defense.

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6. Josh Sweat (EDGE, Philadelphia Eagles)

Although Sweat didn’t have the same season that Baun did, he plays a position that can have a greater impact on games. He had 33 sacks over his last four seasons and was 21st in pressures among EDGE defenders, which greatly outperformed his total snaps (42nd). 

5. Sam Darnold (QB, Minnesota Vikings)

Darnold hung around fifth in MVP odds for most of the season, ultimately finishing with career-bests of 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The jury is still out on whether he can elevate a team to the top level, but the more likely alternative is that his departure has a more severe negative impact on the Vikings (+3200 Super Bowl odds - 12th) than expected. Second-year QB J.J. McCarthy is coming off a knee injury and did not play last year. 

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4. Trey Smith (IOL, Kansas City Chiefs)

Smith is the best guard in this crop of free agents and could be leaving the Super Bowl runner-ups. He was sixth in run-block win rate (75.1 percent) and did not allow a sack in 1,115 regular-season offensive snaps, though he allowed one in the Super Bowl.

3. Ronnie Stanley (OT, Baltimore Ravens)

Stanley anchored the all-important left tackle spot for a Ravens team that was third in pass- and run-block win rate, while he personally ranked 12th in pass-block win rate. The Ravens are tied for second in odds to win the Super Bowl (+700) and could do with holding onto one of the best blind-side tackles in the sport.

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2. D.J. Reed (CB, New York Jets)

The wide receiver talent in the league is so high that every contending team needs multiple impact corners. Reed doesn’t get the same hype as Sauce Gardner, but he had a better year than his teammate and allowed 23.7 receiving yards per game in his career. Of contending teams, the Lions (+900), Cincinnati Bengals (+1700), Green Bay Packers (+2100), and Washington Commanders (+2300) could all use his services.

1. Tee Higgins (WR, Cincinnati Bengals)

The top free agent on the market may reportedly be going back to Cincinnati under the non-exclusive franchise tag. He caught 73 passes for 911 yards and 10 TDs in only 12 games last year and could function as the primary or secondary wideout on basically every team in the league. The Bengals’ defense let them down last year, but losing Higgins would severely hurt their offensive attack.

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