NFL Week 7 DFS Sleepers

Yikes. Aside from a perfect defensive pick with Washington DST, last week’s sleepers didn’t go too well. Mike Evans and Tee Higgins suiting up did negate two picks, though, which didn’t leave much else up for grabs.

Regardless, sleepers are more important than ever for Week 7, given that six teams are on bye. Searching for low-ownership plays is always a staple of DFS, but it’s even more paramount now. Let’s dive into those picks!

This weekly column will provide you with the information you need before choosing a sleeper in DFS. Prices are sourced from DraftKings and FanDuel.

Sleeper picks

Quarterback

Joshua Dobbs @ SEA , $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel

Truthfully, there aren’t a ton of great quarterback options this week. My DFS Lineup article, which comes out on Friday, will highlight my favorite of the bunch, but with six teams on bye and some unfavorable matchups, this could turn ugly.

Still, Dobbs has a chance at redemption in Week 7 after his hot start cooled off. He’s thrown three interceptions in his last two games after throwing zero in his first four, but now he faces a Seattle defense that is 22nd against fantasy quarterbacks in points allowed. The Seahawks have not forced a turnover in either of their two home games.

Dobbs doesn’t have many starts before Kyler Murray returns. It’s incredibly important to his career to perform well in the time he has left, and incentives like that can sometimes make all the difference. The absence of James Conner also led Dobbs to see a season-high passing attempts (41), which offers him a new ceiling we haven’t seen quite yet.

Dobbs also came a couple yards away from setting a season-high in rushing yards, something that could continue against a Seahawks team allowing over 5.4 yards-per-carry to quarterbacks this season.

Running back

Jerome Ford @ IND , $5,100 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel

The Colts just lost arguably their best run-stuffer in Grover Stewart, who was suspended for six games on Tuesday after he tested positive for PEDs. But Ford has a good chance to drastically outperform his price tag, even if Stewart is out there.

I’m not a huge fan of Ford’s talent, but there’s no denying his big-play ability when his offensive line can create a hole. His breakaway speed has already created several chunk plays as the starter since Nick Chubb was lost to injury, and his 17 carries last week firmly established him as the starter over Kareem Hunt despite the veteran getting the touchdown.

The Colts rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to running backs and with Deshaun Watson. Walker struggling to throw the ball, it’s fair to expect the Browns to lean on their run-heavy playbook once more. Cleveland will continue to live and die by its defense and running game.

Wide Receiver

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. ARI , $3,900 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel

Everyone can have their popular breakout pick in Rashee Rice, who could certainly pop off in Week 7. But Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the consensus WR1 in the 2023 class for a reason, and he’s about to put the league on notice in Week 7.

Smith-Njigba saw his route participation hit a season-high 86.7% after his bye week, which has steadily rose over the last month. He also saw a season-high 70.3% of snaps, a significant increase from his previous best. The first-round rookie is finally running routes at a similar rate to teammates Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, a major indicator of production to come.

Slot receivers Tyler Boyd and Cooper Kupp have absolutely burnt slot cornerback Antonio Hamilton over the last two weeks. Assuming Hamilton retains his role, or even if a lesser player steps in, Smith-Njigba is poised to outperform the Cardinals.

Few need reminders of how Smith-Njigba outperformed stars Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave at Ohio State. But those that do need the prompt will be put on notice in Week 7. 

Tight End

Jonnu Smith @ TB, $3,600 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel

No, Michael Mayer is not a sleeper anymore, at least not in big tournaments. He might be mentioned in another article (hint, hint), but not this one.

Smith shouldn’t be much of a sleeper either, given his steady production over the last month. But the sudden emergence of Kyle Pitts could bury Smith in the public’s eyes, while the reality remains that there is room for both to produce.

No team runs more two-TE sets than the Falcons, and the stats reflect it. Smith has seen six targets or more in all but one game since Week 2, and scored his first touchdown of the season in Week 6.

The Buccaneers aren’t a scary matchup, sitting around the league average in points allowed to tight ends. He’s a fine, cheap option for those punting tight end in DFS.

Defense

Atlanta Falcons @ TB , $2,800 on DraftKings, $4,000 on FanDuel

Baker Mayfield is battling a hand injury after he smacked a facemask in Week 6, and the magic around the 2018 first-round pick’s strong start is quickly evaporating. Now he must fight through the hand injury against a Falcons defense that doesn’t feel too dissimilar to the New York Jets. The struggles on offense continue to put a talented defense on the back foot.

That said, the Falcons have a good chance at a splash fantasy day against Mayfield, who has thrown an interception in three consecutive games. The Buccaneers’’ run game isn’t anything to write home about, which continually forces Mayfield to carry the brunt of the offense.

That could shape up for a bounce-back game for a Falcons defense that has forced just four turnovers in 2023, a majority of which came in Week 1.