The Philadelphia Eagles are one game back from first place in the NFC Conference standings
Saquon Barkley is the new betting favorite for the Offensive Player of the Year award
The Los Angeles Rams defense ranks below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate
Ever since the Philadelphia Eagles got back to full health, they have arguably looked like one of the best teams in the NFC Conference as they currently rank above league average on both sides of the ball in DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their hot start to the year has them in first place in the NFC East and just one game back from the Detroit Lions for the first overall seed in the playoffs. Against the Los Angeles Rams, the Eagles have the opportunity to remain near the top of the standings as a small betting favorite on the road.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Eagles | -2.5 (-120) | -148 | Over 48.5 (-115) |
Los Angeles Rams | +2.5 (-102) | +126 | Under 48.5 (-105) |
While the Rams' defense have steadily improved, they still struggle to play at a competitive level as they currently rank below league average in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. They now have to defend against a versatile offense that excels at generating consistent offensive production through the air and on the ground. Factor in Philadelphia fielding one of the best secondaries in the NFL and Matthew Stafford will struggle to stay within the Eagles scoring pace as their pass attack is expected to regress.
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Expect a healthy amount of carries for Saquon Barkley as he gets the benefit of running wild against a Rams front seven who currently ranks well below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Speaking of carries, Jalen Hurts would be wise to utilize his legs to combat against the Rams' pressure as their front line excels at collapsing the pocket.
On the other side of the field, expect Matthew Stafford to struggle with stringing together successful drives down the field as the Rams pass attack is expected to regress. Even with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp lined up on the outside, both star receivers will struggle to create separation as the Eagles anchor their linebackers in coverage at one of the heaviest rates in the league.
Since signing with the Philadelphia Eagles, Saquon Barkley has quickly elevated their level of rush production while building a strong case for the Offensive Player of the Year award. Heading into Sunday, Barkley will have the opportunity to run wild as he faces off against a Rams front seven who ranks well below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. This also helps counter the Rams' interior pressure, bouncing Barkley to the outside against a stretched-out secondary.
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Not only is Saquan Barkley expected to shoulder a heavy workload, but Jalen Hurts may utilize his legs at a heavier rate to combat against a Rams defense who ranks above league average in Def Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate. With each carry, the chances of Hurts throwing an interception drastically decreases. The Rams blitzing at a heavy rate also leaves their corners on islands, creating higher quality passing lanes while AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith create separation from their single coverage.
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Even though the Rams' pass attack has drastically improved since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp made their return from injury, regression looms large as they face off against an Eagles secondary who excels in coverage. Especially when in scoring position as both star receivers will struggle to create separation in the shortened field while the Eagles anchor their linebackers in coverage. This may lead to an uptick in carries for Kyren Williams at the expense of less pass attempts for Matthew Stafford.
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When: Sunday, November 24 at 8:20 PM ET
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Where to Watch: NBC
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Philadelphia Eagles Injuries
DE Milton Williams - Questionable
Los Angeles Rams Injuries
RT Rob Havenstein - Questionable
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