Eagles vs Chiefs Super Bowl Predictions: Chiefs Fall Just Short of Winning Three in a Row

• The Kansas City Chiefs have won the last two Super Bowls in a row

• Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley is expected to win the Offensive Player of the Year award

• The Chiefs secondary ranks 17th overall in Def Pass DVOA and Def Pass Success Rate

In their quest of winning three straight Super Bowls, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense face their toughest test of the season as the Philadelphia Eagles enter the contest ranked first overall in Def DVOA.

With no glaring weakness at any level of the field, the Eagles will have the opportunity to consistently slow down Mahomes while giving their own offense an uptick in possessions to increase their chances of winning.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds

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Eagles vs Chiefs Predictions

Eagles: All Eyes on Saquon

Throughout the playoffs, Jalen Hurts has been dealing with a nagging injury. While he has been able to overcome it and use his legs to sustain drives down the field when a rushing lane opens up, it has hampered his ability to maneuver in a pocket.

This may spell trouble against a Chiefs defense who blitzes at a heavy rate, especially when his offense line ranks near dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards.

With his offensive line struggling to hold their ground, Hurts will have to get the ball out of his hands quicker than anticipated or risk taking an ill-advised sack. The Chiefs relentless pressure also lessens the amount of time his pass catchers have to create separation from their coverage, leaving Hurts with low quality passing lanes for him to throw to.

To help counter against their interior pressure, the Eagles will need to continue to rely on their star running back Saquon Barkley.

Getting Barkley past the tackles and out in space gives him a high chance of creating an explosive play. Not only does this help sustain drives down the field, but it also forces the Chiefs to anchor their linebackers. When anchored, Hurts can sit in a pocket and let his pass catchers pick apart their gaps in coverage.

Chiefs: No Clear Path for Success

In what was a down year for the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback, Patrick Mahomes just keeps on finding ways to win.

Unfortunately for Mahomes, the Philadelphia Eagles defense has been one of the more formidable units in the league this season as they grade out well in every area of the field. Heading into the Super Bowl, the Eagles defense ranks top-5 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

By being able to collapse the pocket with just their front four, the Eagles get the benefit of keeping their linebackers in space to help plug their gaps in coverage.

This also allows them to utilize a linebacker to bracket Kelce off the line, leaving a body on his hip to lessen the quality of Mahomes passing lane to his favorite target.

To help break apart their coverage, the Chiefs will need to find success on the ground to force them to stack the box and send bodies down to the trenches. While the Chiefs do rank eighth overall in Rush Success Rate, sustaining their high mark on the ground will be a struggle against an Eagles defensive line who excels at plugging gaps and bottling up running backs. Expect an uptick in stalled out drives from the Chiefs offense, shading value towards the full game under.

My Pick for Super Bowl LIX: Under 48.5 (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

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Eagles vs Chiefs Best Bets

Kansas City Chiefs Team Total Under 24.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After the Eagles' defense collapsed at the end of last year, their ownership spent the offseason retooling that side of the field to help turn them back into a well-rounded contender.

Not only have the Eagles defense managed to round back into form, but they are arguably the best unit in the league as they head into the Super Bowl ranked first in Def DVOA and third in Def EPA. Their revamped secondary has played a major role in their success as their back end ranks top-3 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

Their suffocating coverage will make it tough for Patrick Mahomes to generate pass production, leaving the Chiefs prone to early outs and stalled out drives.

Especially with their linebackers anchored in coverage as the Eagles' extra bodies across the middle will drastically lessen the quality of Mahomes passing lanes. Factor in the Eagles' offense calling a heavy dose of the run to help control the time of possession and the Chiefs will have fewer opportunities to get into scoring position.

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Philadelphia Eagles Moneyline (+106) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While the Eagles' secondary has thrived, the Chiefs' back end has underwhelmed as they head into Sunday ranked 17th in Def Pass DVOA, 15th in EPA, and 17th in Success Rate.

Their heavy use of the blitz leaves their corners on islands, creating gaps in the middle when they are unable to get to the quarterback. Even though the Eagles' offensive line grades out poorly in Pass Protection, the duo of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are capable of creating space from any single coverage they may receive.

Saquon Barkley roaming in the backfield also makes it tough for the Chiefs' defense to take their foot off the pedal as they will need to send extra bodies down the line to help slow down the star running back. If the Chiefs do spread out their linebackers to help mask their poor marks in coverage instead of stacking the box, then Barkley will be in a great position to churn out sizable gains with each carry. With clear advantages on both sides of the ball, back the Eagles to win the Super Bowl.

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Eagles ML/Saquon Barkley 2+ Touchdowns SGP (+650) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

Since the start of the playoffs, Saquon Barkley has been able to sustain his high level of play as the projected winner for the Offensive Player of the Year award has scored five rushing touchdowns while averaging 147.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per carry.

With the Chiefs defensive line ranking just league average in Def Adjusted Line Yards, Barkley will find himself with plenty of high-quality rushing lanes in the trenches for him to exploit.

His usage when the Eagles' offense are inside the 20 also puts him in a great position to score multiple touchdowns as he comfortably leads the team in red zone carries while rivaling AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert in targets.

Instead of betting on Barkley to win the Super Bowl MVP at his short odds, build this correlated same game parlay as the star running back will need to put together a dominant performance to edge out his own quarterback in the voting.

Follow our link to find the best Saquon Barkley Super Bowl prop bets.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs How to Watch

• When: Sunday, February 9 at 6:30 PM ET

• Where: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA

• How to Watch: Fox, Tubi, NFL+

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Latest Super Bowl News

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