NFL Draft Odds: Is Shedeur Sanders Really Falling on NFL Draft Boards?

Shedeur Sanders is one of the hottest names in the NFL Draft, but his chances of upsetting first pick odds might be lower than the chances of him falling way down the board, according to reports.

NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay said he heard from two teams looking to draft quarterbacks in the top 10 that they walked away from their meetings with Sanders at the combine feeling that he “did not care too much what they or the organization felt of him.”

Those comments, combined with several scouts going on record to say they don’t believe he’s on the same level as Cam Ward, suggest that the smoke is emanating from a real fire. 

Which team will draft Shedeur Sanders, and could he fall out of the first round entirely? We’ll try to answer those questions.

NFL Draft Odds and Predictions

See the latest odds for the NFL Draft First Pick in the table below. Click the odds to place your bets.

Sanders, alongside teammate and Heisman winner Travis Hunter (+1100 first pick odds at FanDuel) led the Colorado Buffaloes to a 9-4 record last year. He completed 74 percent of his passes for 4,134 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, and ranked 20th in QBR.

His successful seasons and college career led many to believe he would battle his friend, Ward, for the right to be the first player taken in the draft. Even if he didn’t hear his name called by Roger Goodell during the Tennessee Titans’ selection, it was widely expected that he wouldn’t fall past the New York Giants at the third slot.

Those expectations are quickly falling. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. predicted the New York Jets would take Sanders at seventh in his latest mock draft published on Feb. 25, two days before the combine even began.

The Athletic’s Zach Rosenblatt doubled down on the sentiment that Sanders wasn’t a top pick in a piece predicting the quarterback situation for every team next year.

"The rumblings out of [the combine] were that the Browns preferred Cam Ward and perhaps aren’t high enough on Shedeur Sanders to pick him second overall," Rosenblatt wrote. "That might be a smokescreen, but Sanders isn’t widely considered that caliber of prospect anyway.”

Another member of The Athletic, Dane Brugler, confirmed that not every team gave Sanders a first-round grade, according to an article written by Ted Nguyen. 

NFL.com gave Sanders a prospect ranking of 6.30, which translates to “will eventually be a plus-starter.”

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Which NFL Team Will Draft Shedeur Sanders?

At his best, Sanders can play with elite precision and timing in the pocket. He’s as tough as nails and throws with leverage that leads to run-after-the-catch opportunities.

On the downside, he’s allergic to taking a minor profit in hopes of chasing the big play. That led to him taking far too many sacks or attempting ill-advised passes outside of the pocket. He also appears more confident in his escapability than he should be given his lack of speed and elusiveness. 

When the money’s in the center of the table, however, Sanders usually showed up, leading his team on a plethora of fourth-quarter scoring drives in close games.

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Tennessee Titans (Pick One)

It seems unreasonable to believe the Titans would take Sanders at this point. They want a generational prospect like Carter (+200 first pick odds at FanDuel) or Hunter, or the top QB, Ward (-220 first pick odds). Read our NFL Draft First Pick analysis right here.

New York Giants (Pick 3)

There have been rumblings that Sanders and the Giants have mutual interest, whether it be the quarterback tossing passes with star rookie wideout Malik Nabers in the city streets, confidently dapping up coach Brian Daboll at the Shrine Bowl, or posting a picture of Giants cleats online. However, New York’s roster is not in a place to help a rookie QB succeed, and it would be tough to pass up Carter, Hunter, or Ward, if they were available.

Las Vegas Raiders (Pick 6)

The Tom Brady connection and a glaring need for a quarterback make this an obvious potential landing spot. However, veterans such as Sam Darnold are on the market and may offer a lower-risk, higher-short-term-reward scenario for new coach Pete Carroll.

New York Jets (Pick 7)

Even if the Jets are ready to let Tyrod Taylor play out the upcoming season, they need to prepare for the future. The Jets have a strong defense, a star young wide receiver, and drafted their left tackle of the future, Olu Fashanu, last year. 

Indianapolis Colts (Pick 14)

In the event that the Colts are ready to move off of Richardson, Sanders offers them something he didn’t: proven production at the college level. He’s a more prototypical pocket quarterback who can deliver the ball on time and help reduce Indy’s turnover issue.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick 21)

The Steelers have needed a quarterback since a few years before Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement. Sanders might not be at the top of everyone’s board, but this is only one spot away from where the Steelers drafted Kenny Pickett a few years ago.

The Second Round and Beyond

Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson was the 32nd pick in the 2018 draft. Will Levis was supposed to be in contention for the first overall pick and wasn’t taken until the second round in the 2023 draft. Slides happen at different positions in every draft, and nearly all of the teams outside of the top 10 already have franchise QBs.

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