How Does NFL Draft Position Affect Super Bowl Odds?

The 2025 NFL season is supposed to be a blank slate for every team in the league, but while every team will start with the same 0-0 record, past Super Bowl results show that teams start with an advantage or disadvantage based on where they pick in the NFL Draft.

The last 10 Super Bowl champions earned an average draft position of 24.8 the year before they captured the Lombardi Trophy. Only two teams vaulted from having a top-15 pick to becoming world champions within one season, and no team with a pick before 12 accomplished this feat.

How does this affect the way teams evaluate the 2025 NFL Draft, free agency, and their chances to compete? Let’s discuss.

NFL Draft Position = Super Bowl Success?

Before we dive into the data, allow us to set the table. “Draft position” refers to where teams were slotted to pick if they were in control of their first-round pick. If they earned the 23rd pick but traded up to 14 or traded out of the first round entirely, they were still marked as having the 23rd pick.

There’s also an anomaly in the data. The 2017 Super Bowl champion New England Patriots were stripped of their first-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft due to the fallout from deflate-gate, a scandal in which Tom Brady and the Pats were accused of purposefully deflating footballs below the legal level during the 2014 AFC Championship Game.

With that covered, let’s talk about how the NFL Draft can predict Super Bowl success.

The reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles came in 2.8 spots below the 10-year average. It’s worth noting that Philly had the best record in football at 10-1 through 11 games last season before it lost six of its final seven, including its Wild Card matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Five of nine Super Bowl champions picked 28 or later in the preceding draft, and four of those five made their respective conference championship games the year before. Those teams included the Kansas City Chiefs (2020, 2023-24) and Patriots (2019).

While those teams represent a near-majority, they are both two of the most dominant dynasties the league has seen. 

Excluding the Chiefs and Pats from our list of Super Bowl champs, soon-to-be champions picked at an average spot of 20.2. The 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 2018 Eagles also picked 14th and 12th, respectively.

The 2024 Chiefs were also the only team to pick 32nd the year they won the Super Bowl, which means they were also the only team that won the Big Game the season before.

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Tracking Super Bowl Odds and Trends

What’s the takeaway from these results?

This isn’t breaking news, but being on a dynasty team offers security. Other teams weren’t necessarily in Super Bowl contention the year before they won the Super Bowl as only one of the five non-dynasty teams even made it out of the Wild Card.

Additionally, in the case of the ‘21 Bucs and ‘18 Eagles, they didn’t even make the playoffs the year before they won the Super Bowl.

Our average draft position of 24.8 for Super Bowl champs including dynasty teams rounds to pick 25. The team that owns the 25th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is the Houston Texans, the back-to-back AFC South champions who are tied for 13th in Super Bowl odds at FanDuel (+3300).

The 20.2 average draft position of Super Bowl champs excluding dynasty teams rounds to 20, which belongs to the Denver Broncos. The reigning AFC West third-place finishers are 20th in Super Bowl odds at +6000.

We mentioned earlier that the Eagles owned the rights to the 22nd pick in last year’s NFL Draft. The Los Angeles Chargers (+2700 Super Bowl odds - 10th) are scheduled to pick there this time around.

Finally, five of the last 10 Super Bowl champions appeared in the conference championship the year before, meaning they picked 29th or later (except for the case of the ‘17 Patriots). Those teams would include the Washington Commanders (+2000 Super Bowl odds - eighth), Buffalo Bills (+800 Super Bowl odds - fourth), Chiefs (+650 Super Bowl odds), and Eagles (+600 Super Bowl odds).

All of the odds mentioned above could soon be thrown into limbo with the NFL free agency window set to open on Wednesday, March 12 at 4:00 p.m. ET.

The NFL Draft will also take place on April 24. Our Grant Mitchell recently released his NFL mock draft for round one, as well as mock drafts for rounds 2 and 3.

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