NFL Draft Controversy: Why Betting Odds Are Swinging on the Fifth Pick

There’s been a massive change in NFL Draft odds for a team with a top-five pick in Thursday’s event.

As of Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars had +5000 odds to draft Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan with the fifth pick, per FanDuel sportsbook. Those odds leaped to +700 on Monday afternoon, meaning the Jags have a 12.5 percent (10.4 percent increase) implied chance to draft the 6-foot-5 pass-catcher.

bet365 sportsbook also had McMillan as low as +300, or a 25 percent implied chance, on Monday.

NFL Draft Odds Change: Jags No Longer Set at Fifth Pick?

For at least one month, the general belief has been that the Jags would select Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham with the fifth pick. That was based on online sportsbooks betting odds and the near-universal agreement from mock drafts that had the burly lineman relocating to warmer weather.

The sudden swing in odds suggests that what was a foregone conclusion might once again be an open-door situation.

Our NFL Draft Guide showed that Graham is still an even-money favorite to be taken by the Jaguars, ahead of Heisman runner-up and running back extraordinaire Ashton Jeanty at +200. Linebacker Jalon Walker (+750), offensive lineman Armand Membou (+1600), and tight end Tyler Warren (+1700) are also prominent options.

The Jags only managed to go 4-13 last year, in part because quarterback Trevor Lawrence missed seven games due to a shoulder injury and a concussion.

The team only sent three players to the Pro Bowl, two of which were special teamers. The lone position player was another rookie receiver, Brian Thomas Jr., whom the Jags selected with the 23rd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Thomas, a 22-year-old speedster, wound up with 87 receptions, 1,282 yards (third), and 10 touchdowns (t-sixth) in spite of disappointing QB player.

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Is Tetairoa McMillan the Answer?

Given the Jags have many holes to fill coming off a 4-13 campaign, and one of the few positions they have solidified is the receiver, the potential McMillan selection would be surprising. But it wouldn’t be an outright mistake, and it would set the Jags up for years of potent offense.

Cincinnati Bengals gunslinger Joe Burrow just led the league in all major passing categories in part because he had two number-one receivers, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Cynics will say the team went 9-8 and missed the playoffs, but the receiver pairing helped maximize the quarterback, which is the most important position in football.

A 6-foot-4 Thomas and 6-foot-5 McMillan would give the Jags extreme diversity in their passing attack and the ability to create constant matchup nightmares. 

New head coach, Liam Coen, is an offensive guy who helped the Tampa Bay Buccaneers average the fourth-most points per game and had a similar setup with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at his disposal.

McMillan isn’t as fast or fluid as Thomas Jr., but he has a ridiculous catching radius and was more productive in college, bringing down 174 receptions for 2,721 yards and 18 touchdowns in his final two seasons.

There’s no guarantee that the Jags make the fifth selection in the draft. Teams could show interest in moving up to snag their favorite prospect, with Jeanty and Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders being potential targets.

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