Dolphins vs. Packers Picks, Predictions & Player Props: TNF on Thanksgiving

• Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 in games played at or below 40 degrees

• The Dolphins won three straight, while the Packers won six of seven

• Since 2004, favorites are 38-19 against the spread on Thanksgiving

The Miami Dolphins (5-6) are set to take on the Green Bay Packers (8-3) in the third of three Thanksgiving games.

Anticipating your Turkey Day food coma, we’ve taken the opportunity to come up with the best betting picks for the TNF matchup.  

Dolphins vs. Packers Odds

The following odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook where you can receive $150 in bonus bets after placing and winning a $5 wager.

Dolphins vs. Packers My Pick

• My Pick: Packers Spread at -3.5 (-102) via FanDuel

The Packers’ ability to run the ball is important here, given that this game will be played in the cold of a Green Bay night. Tagovailoa has also really struggled to produce in the cold throughout his career, though Miami’s evolution in offensive style could make this less of a factor.

We believe this will be a close game, but the Packers’ ability to run the ball should help them control the proceedings and steal a cover.

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Dolphins vs. Packers Predictions 

The Dolphins’ performances directly coincided with the health of Tua Tagovailoa. Lucky for them, their franchise QB is back under center and led the Dolphins to at least 23 points scoring in five straight games. The team also accomplished this with more underneath and intermediate work as opposed to depending on their downfield speed like they did in years past.

Miami’s defense isn’t amazing, but it climbed to 13th in EPA per play during the five games that Tagovailoa was back under center. They’re in for a strong test against the Packers in what is expected to be 27-degree weather at kick-off.

Find Tua Tagovailoa Prop Bets right here!

Matt LaFleur has taken a team that looked to be reliant on Jordan Love’s deep shots down the field and crafted one of the most effective running games in the league. They ranked sixth in EPA per rush play over the last month, while Love finally did not throw an interception in a game for the first time all season in last week's 38-10 win against the San Francisco 49ers.

Green Bay’s defense is solid and ranks 10th in points allowed per game, but it showed some vulnerabilities in matchups with high-powered offenses. It’s now on Miami to take advantage of those.

Dolphins vs. Packers Best Player Props

Jordan Love Under 240.5 Passing Yards (-113 at FanDuel sportsbook)

Love has an extremely strong arm, but he went under this line in three of his last five games. He also started to throw the ball much less as of late, recording 22 or fewer attempts in three of his last four games with the outlier being a game against the Detroit Lions.

Assuming Miami doesn’t go into Lambeau and light up the scoreboard, the Packers should look to establish the run, leading to fewer passing yards for Love.

De’Von Achane Anytime TD Scorer (-110 at FanDuel sportsbook)

No more backfield committee, Achane is firmly “the guy” in Miami’s offense. He scored eight touchdowns and found the end zone at least once in four of his last five games as both a running and receiving threat.

The cold weather should lead to Miami being more conservative with the ball, which favors strong running back production. 

Jaylen Waddle Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at FanDuel sportsbook)

Waddle had his best game of the season by a mile against the New England Patriots last week, catching eight passes for 144 yards and a touchdown. However, he went under this line in six of nine games just before that and is behind at least three other players in the pecking order.

The Packers also rank 11th in passing yards allowed per game (206.5) and should do a nice job playing at home on a short week.

Dolphins vs. Packers How to Watch

• When: Thursday, Nov. 28, 7:20/8:20 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

• Where to Watch: NBC/Universo/Peacock

Dolphins vs. Packers Best Promos and Sportsbooks

The Packers are favored by three or 3.5 points at majority of online NFL betting sites.

Dolphins bettors will find the best deal at DraftKings, where they are +3.5 (-115). Packers bettors will find them for -3 (-117) at BetRivers.

Anyone who bets on Dolphins vs. Packers at FanDuel sportsbook can win $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.

More NFL betting promos can be found listed in the table below.

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

Get Jared Goff on Sleeper DFS

DFS fans on Thanksgiving Day can get Jordan Love on the discount from 240.5 PASS YDS to 199.5 PASS YDS for the Packers vs. Dolphins game at 8:20 PM EST, courtesy of Sleeper. Claim this offer by clicking the image below!

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