Dolphins vs. Jets Picks, Predictions & Player Props: Jets Set for Double-Digit Losses

• Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith has 25 catches for 301 yards and three touchdowns over the last three games

• Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers has multiple touchdown passes in four of the last five games

• Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last three games

The 5-7 Miami Dolphins are at home in Week 14 against the 3-9 New York Jets. The Dolphins are in second place in the AFC East, while the Jets are last in the third in the same division.

Below are the odds for this game, my best bet, predictions, and best player props.

Dolphins vs. Jets Odds

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Dolphins vs. Jets: My Pick

• My Pick: Dolphins to cover the spread at -6 (-110) at Caesars

While the Jets defense has held opponents to just one touchdown pass per game in each of the last three, they’ve also allowed 266 passing yards or more in two of those. 

Also, the Jets barely generate any turnovers, recording just two interceptions all season.

The Dolphins have far too many weapons and are at home, and Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been excellent lately. 

I’ll take them at home at -6.

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Dolphins vs. Jets Predictions 

The Dolphins are 3-1 in their last four games, with their most recent loss coming last week on Thanksgiving on the road against the Green Bay Packers. 

Still, in that game, Tagovailoa completed 37 of 46 passes (80.4%) for 365 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. 

The defense simply couldn’t hold up.

Over his last three games, Tagovailoa has been on a tear, averaging 323 passing yards per game in that span, and has nine passing touchdowns. 

Other than last week, the Dolphins offensive line has managed to hold up relatively well in terms of pressure. They’ll have a tough task this week, though, as the Jets are fifth in sacks with 37. 

Still, the Jets offense hasn’t been very successful this season. They average just 18.8 points per game, which is the 26th-lowest in the league.

The Dolphins aren’t too far ahead of them, but they had several games with Tagovailoa under center. Since he’s come back into the fold, the Dolphins average 27 points per game. 

Also, while the Jets only allowed one passing touchdown in each of the last three games, two of those games came against opponents with run-heavy quarterbacks, including Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray and Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. They each had two rushing touchdowns. 

Finally, the Jets allow more than four catches for nearly 43 yards to opposing tight ends this season, and allowed one touchdown to the position last week. 

This comes as Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith is red-hot, catching 25 passes for 301 yards and three touchdowns over the last three games.

Simply put, the Dolphins offensive output will be too much for the Jets to match. 

Dolphins vs. Jets Best Player Props

Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (+140) at Caesars Sportsbook

Hill’s offensive production has been relatively slow this season. He has 55 catches for 654 yards and four touchdowns. As mentioned, though, the Dolphins were without Tagovailoa for multiple games. 

Over the last four games, he has three touchdowns. The targets have really ramped up lately, too, and he’s averaging six catches per outing over the last three games. 

The Jets haven’t given up many passing touchdowns this season, but with a player like Hill, getting him the ball early to establish a lead should be a priority for the Dolphins.

I think volume wins out here, and I’ll take Hill to score at +140.

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Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+159) at Caesars Sportsbook

For this prop, this is more of a value play than anything else. It could also be a nice way to hedge the point spread wager. 

Rodgers has multiple touchdown passes in four of his last five games, and here, on the road in fine weather conditions, he’ll take on a Dolphins defense that’s allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of the last six games.

Their per-game average is a mere 1.08, but a lot of that was due to their success between Weeks 1 and 7 when they allowed just three. 

The Jets have plenty of excellent pass-catching options, headlined by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, so at +159, I’m willing to take a chance with a half-unit wager.

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Jonnu Smith Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-113) at Caesars Sportsbook

I discussed above how well the Jets defense has been against passing touchdowns, but I also touched on their propensity to allow production to the tight end position. 

This season, the Jets have allowed four tight ends to go for 50 yards or more, and that number has increased to six, with a benchmark of 40 yards.

Smith has been great lately. 

Over his last eight games, he’s had 50 yards or more five times, and there were two other games where he had 45 and 46 yards. 

He’s seeing more targets than ever, seeing 11 in back-to-back games. 

This might be where the Dolphins win should Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed hold things down (assuming Gardner plays as he’s questionable with a hamstring injury). 

Keep riding the hot streak with Smith.

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Dolphins vs. Jets: How to Watch

• When: Sunday, Dec. 8 at 1:00 PM ET

• Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL

• Where to Watch: CBS

Dolphins vs. Jets Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Dolphins vs. Jets Injuries

Dolphins Injuries

• Dolphins offensive lineman Terron Armstead is questionable with a knee injury

• Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill is questionable with a wrist injury

• Dolphins offensive lineman Kendall Lamm is questionable with a back/elbow injury

• Dolphins linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. is questionable with a hamstring injury

• Dolphins linebacker Bradley Chubb is questionable with a knee injury

• Dolphins cornerback Kendall Fuller is questionable with a concussion

• Dolphins liebacker Cameron Goode is questionable with a knee injury

• Dolphins defensive tackle Benito Jones is questionable with a shoulder/back injury

• Dolphins cornerback Kader Kohou is questionable with a back injury

• Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert is questionable with a hip injury

• Dolphins safety Jordan Poyer is questionable with a finger injury

• Dolphins offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn is questionable with a quad/knee injury

Jets Injuries

• Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner is questionable with a hamstring injury

• Jets running back Breece Hall is questionable with a knee injury

• Jets offensive lineman Morgan Moses is questionable with a knee/shoulder injury

• Jets offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker is questionable with an ankle injury

• Jets offensive lineman Olu Fashanu is questionable with a toe injury

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