Dolphins vs. Bills Picks, Predictions and Odds: AFC East Rivals Clash in South Beach

• The Bills beat the Dolphins in Week 18 last year to earn a spot in the playoffs

• Josh Allen has been prolific against Miami throughout his career

• The Dolphins only beat one winning team last year but were great at home in warm weather

The Miami Dolphins are hoping to steal the AFC East crown from the Buffalo Bills this season, and they’ll get their first crack at asserting their dominance when they host their rival for Thursday Night Football.

Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa both posted impressive numbers in Week 1 - but which quarterback will lead their team to victory? Here are our best Dolphins vs. Bills picks for Thursday Night Football.

Dolphins vs. Bills TNF Odds

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Dolphins vs. Bills TNF Predictions 

The Bills proved in their Week 1 win against the Arizona Cardinals that they are only going to go as far as Josh Allen carries them. The superstar QB racked up four total touchdowns but did not have a receiver log more than 51 yards, while his defense surrendered 28 points to a team that only gained 270 total yards.

Depending on Allen to this extent is a double-edged sword. He can easily lead the league in touchdowns, just the same way he’s a real threat to lead it in turnovers. He averaged more than 280 passing yards and logged 33 touchdowns to just seven interceptions in 12 career games against the Dolphins, including a decisive 21-14 win in Week 18 last season.

The Dolphins are in full-on Super Bowl-or-bust mode with their assembly of talent. They locked up Tua Tagovailoa on a long-term deal and brought in Jordan Poyer and Kendall Fuller to shore up the holes in a defense that was often gashed a year ago.

Miami started slowly but won the second half 13-0 in its 20-17 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tagovailoa went for 338 yards, while Tyreek Hill caught seven passes for 130 yards and a touchdown en route to the victory.

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Dolphins vs. Bills TNF Pick

• My Pick: Dolphins spread at -1.5 (-110) at FanDuel

We like the Dolphins to win and cover this game. With respect to Tyreek Hill, Josh Allen is the best player in the contest. However, the Dolphins have a long list of players before the next active and healthy Bills player in the matchup hierarchy.

Miami didn’t look great against the run last week but held Trevor Lawrence to 162 yards and only one touchdown.  The Bills don’t have an excellent running game independent of Allen, and that’s going to put even more pressure on him to be at his best on the road against a division rival on a short week of rest. 

Another pick we like is De’Von Achane anytime touchdown scorer. The second-year back from Texas A&M only gained 24 rushing yards last week but still found his way into the end zone, and he also caught seven passes for 76 yards.

Mostert is questionable in this matchup, but even if he plays, Miami has shown its commitment to getting Achane the ball. He has electrifying speed and is a great off-speed punch for a team facing a defense that gave up 63 rushing yards and 67 receiving yards to running backs last week.

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Dolphins vs. Bills TNF How to Watch

• When: Thursday, Sept. 12 @ 8:15 p.m. ET

• Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL

• Where to Watch: Prime Video

Dolphins vs. Bills TNF Best Promos and Sportsbooks

The Dolphins are favored by 1.5 or two points at all major NFL betting sites at the time of writing. 

Bills bettors could look to bet365, where they are +2 (-110) on the spread.

Plenty of sportsbooks are giving out bonuses to customers who bet on the matchup. One of those sportsbooks is BetMGM, which allows new bettors to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*. More promos can be found in the table below, or in our overview of the best NFL promos.

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

Dolphins vs. Bills TNF Injuries

Dolphins Injuries

• Jaelan Phillips - Questionable (Achilles)

• Jalen Ramsey - Questionable (Hamstring)

• Raheem Mostert - Questionable (Chest)

• De’Von Achane - Questionable (Ankle)

Bills Injuries

• Taron Johnson - Out (Forearm)

• Matt Milano - Out (Bicep)