NFL Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread: Who Will Win the Bills vs Ravens MVP Showdown?

• The Broncos, Lions, and Chargers tied for a league-best 12-5 ATS

• The Texans were the worst playoff team ATS at 7-8-2

• Four of six Wild Card matchups are rematches from the regular season

The NFL playoffs have progressed to the divisional round, where four teams in each conference will compete for a shot at the conference championship. We’re here to share our best bets against the spread for all of the NFL divisional round action.

NFL Divisional Round Predictions and Odds

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Texans vs. Chiefs - Jan. 18, 4:30 PM ET 

• Spread: Texans +8 (-110), Chiefs -8 (-110)

• Moneyline: Texans +333, Chiefs -450

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

The Texans have been brilliant when affecting opposing quarterbacks. They allowed the lowest completion percentage in the league, second-fewest yards per pass attempt, and registered sacks at the third-highest rate. They also just forced Justin Herbert into one touchdown and four interceptions, more than he threw during the entire regular season.

C.J. Stroud had one touchdown and one interception but threw for 282 yards, while Joe Mixon ran for 106 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card. Stroud had a phenomenal rookie campaign but has largely been off the mark since, and he’ll need to be even better than he was last week against the back-to-back champs.

The Chiefs’ starters went 15-1 and are as comfortable in one-score, high-leverage games as any team in the league—and arguably any team in NFL history. They lost their biggest game of the year to the Bills but took down the Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, and several top teams, including the Texans, by eight points, in Week 16.

Patrick Mahomes closed the year by throwing 18 touchdowns and only two interceptions over his final nine games. KC’s defense also ranked fourth in points allowed per game (19.2) but was 13th in success rate and 15th in EPA per play, so they’ll need some Steve Spagnuolo postseason magic to aid them.

Stroud didn’t have the pressure of having to carry his team to victory last week, which made the game much more comfortable than it may have been otherwise. He had 244 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in his previous matchup with the Chiefs, while Mahomes predictably played a clean game. Houston’s stellar pass defense likely won’t be a huge bother to Mahomes, so we’ll take the rested favorites.

Texans vs. Chiefs pick: Chiefs -8 (-110) at BetMGM

Commanders vs. Lions - Jan. 18, 8:15 PM ET 

• Spread: Commanders +9.5 (-110), Lions -9.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Commanders +400, Lions -550

• Total: Over/under 55.5 (-110/-110)

The Jayden Daniels show is sold out nationwide! The sensational rookie quarterback accounted for nearly 87 percent of Washington’s offense in their 23-20 Wild Card win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which was cemented by a game-winning and doinking field goal as time expired. They marked their fifth straight win that was cemented on the final play of regulation or overtime. 

As sensational as the Commanders have been down the stretch in close games, their defense is an obvious sore spot—even more so than what metrics would suggest. Marshon Lattimore’s return to the lineup did not make a positive impact, and their run defense is among the worst in the league. They also struggle to defend well-targeted passes and are at the mercy of their opponents if they can’t generate QB sacks. 

The Lions finally got to rest and get healthy after they locked up the first seed in the NFC thanks to a resounding Week 18 win over the Minnesota Vikings. They scored more points per game than any team in the league and have the best combination of running backs and offensive linemen in the sport, which gives them the ability to play in any type of playoff game.

Detroit’s defense found rare success bringing tons of pressure against Sam Darnold in Week 18. Todd Bowles tried the same thing against Daniels, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a similar philosophy from Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Everything will still come down to their execution, as they were 26th in EPA per play over the final month of the season.

These two teams went for it on fourth down at the highest rate in the league, and the projected points total is by far the highest of the divisional round. Detroit is 0-4 against elite dual-threat QBs over the last four years, but the Commanders did not have the overall team as any of those four. Look for points, highlights, mistakes, and a Lions cover.

Commanders vs. Lions pick: Lions -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Rams vs. Eagles - Jan. 19, 3:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Rams +6 (-110), Eagles -6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams +225, Eagles -275

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

The Rams won 10 of their last 12 games (excluding Week 18) and just trounced the 14-3 Minnesota Vikings to book their ticket into the divisional round. They are the only team not named the Kansas City Chiefs with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback on their roster and have one of the most improved defenses in the NFL, along with likely the second-best head coach in the sport.

Stafford averaged nearly 300 yards passing in his playoff career and has 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions since he joined the LA Rams. His defense also just produced a playoff record 82 yards lost to sacks (nine) in the win against the Vikings and held four straight teams, again, excluding Week 18, to nine or fewer points.

On the other side, the Eagles eased their way into the divisional round with an unnerving performance against the Green Bay Packers. The 22-10 win was lopsided in the final box score, but the offensive performance was not that convincing. Jalen Hurts’ first game in three weeks post-concussion saw him go 13/21 for 131 yards and two touchdowns, but mostly be a passenger for a team that only managed to go 2-11 on third down.

Philly’s defense finished the year tied for the league lead in defensive EPA per play and only allowed more than two passing touchdowns in the same game once. Saquon Barkley also set a new career-high with 255 rushing yards and two touchdowns when the Eagles beat the Rams on Nov. 24, which is an enormous footnote looming over the impending matchup.

The Rams need to slow down Barkley and the Philly running game and also can’t afford a slow start on offense, which they’ve been prone to. Hurts needs to step up and play to the best of his abilities, and the Eagles’ young defense also has to challenge a savvy veteran in Stafford. We like the Rams with the points on a line as large as this one.

Rams vs. Eagles pick: Rams +6 (-110) at BetMGM

Ravens vs. Bills - Jan. 19, 6:30 PM ET 

• Spread: Ravens -1 (-110), Bills +1 (-110)

• Moneyline: Ravens -120, Bills +100

• Total: Over/under 51.5 (-110/-110)

There’s an argument to be made that Lamar Jackson just played the best quarterback season in NFL history, ranking in the top six in every major passing category, first in QBR, only throwing four interceptions, and adding 915 rushing yards. He and Derrick Henry are the unquestioned best offensive duo in the sport and are responsible for Baltimore winning five straight games by a combined margin of 163-57. 

Baltimore’s defense was also the most improved unit in football, ranking third in EPA per play since Week 10 after checking in at 25th during the first nine weeks of the season. Jackson has a terrible history in the playoffs, but he looked totally comfortable with 175 passing yards, 81 rushing yards, and two touchdowns in Baltimore’s 28-14 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card.

We already mentioned Jackson’s remarkable season, but what we’ve yet to broach is the fact that Josh Allen is actually the NFL MVP favorite. He ranked at or near the top in most major passing categories, had 40 total touchdowns to six interceptions, and was outstanding in the Wild Card, racking up 318 total yards and two touchdowns in a 31-7 demolition of the Denver Broncos.

The Bills had no All-Pro team members other than Allen, yet they went 13-4 and beat teams such as the Lions, Chiefs, and San Francisco 49ers. They also ranked eighth in scoring defense, allowing 20.8 points per game, and were second in offensive EPA per play. A win in this game would mark the first time in four seasons that Buffalo did not lose in the divisional round of the playoffs.

This is the final game of the weekend and will be a heavyweight struggle between two of the best players and teams in the league. The temperature could be below 15 degrees at kick-off, which means that this game will be about physicality and late-game speed. Baltimore’s advantage running the ball combined with their sharp defensive improvements lead us to believe they will take the cake and advance to the AFC Championship Game.  

Ravens vs. Bills pick: Ravens -1 (-110) at BetMGM

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