NFL Defensive Player of the Year Predictions & Odds 2024: Is T.J. Watt Building an Insurmountable Lead

• Myles Garrett won Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2023.

• Micah Parsons opened as the betting favorite for 2024 Defensive Player of the Year.

• Three different players have taken home DPOTY honors three times.

Every year, the top defensive player in the NFL during the season is recognized with the Defensive Player of the Year Award. It doesn’t matter if they’re linemen in the trenches, linebackers covering the field, or defensive backs playing in the secondary, all defensive players are eligible and capable of winning the honor. Since defensive players almost never win MVP, this is the pre-eminent award for NFL defensive players. 

The 2024 race for Defensive Player of the Year has largely revolved around Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt, who is hoping to win the award for the second time. Since the devastating injury to Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson, Watt has been the clear frontrunner. Based on the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, that hasn’t changed.

However, there are still eight weeks left in the season. That’s a long time for things to change. Even if Watt is the clear favorite right now, there is time for that to change. There are plenty of other players to consider because they’ve had standout performances to this point in the season and also have a chance to finish strong. Let’s take a closer look at the top candidates for Defensive Player of the Year and offer our pick for the best betting option right now.

AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below to place your bets at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Predictions

We’ve seen in past years that the competition for Defensive Player of the Year is intense with several worthy candidates. That’s why we wanted to take a closer look at the top candidates and where they currently stand.

T.J. Watt - Linebacker, Steelers (-140) at FanDuel

Believe it or not, Watt is nowhere near the top of the sack leaders, registering just 6.5 at this point in the season. However, he continues to be among the top defensive performers in the NFL week after week. The Steelers have allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL with Watt being a big reason why. As long as that continues to be the case, Watt should remain the frontrunner for DPOTY. Even with the injury to Alex Highsmith, the addition of Preston Smith to the Pittsburgh defense will prevent teams from being able to completely focus on Watt, allowing him to keep wreaking havoc.

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Chris Jones, Defensive Tackle, Chiefs (+900) at FanDuel

The numbers for Jones still aren’t there, as he has just three sacks and one forced fumble this season. However, his performances week after week continue to be impactful. In Week 10, Jones graded out as Kansas City’s best defensive player in an ugly 16-14 win. The Chiefs have their defense to thank for still being undefeated, and Jones is a big reason why the Kansas City defense is among the best in the league. If he had gaudy stats, it would certainly help his case. However, Jones has seen his odds shrink from +1500 to +900 over the past two weeks, so clearly, people are paying attention to what he’s doing on the field independent of his stat line.

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Trey Hendrickson, Defensive End, Bengals (+1200) at FanDuel

His four sacks in a Week 9 win over the Raiders have helped to put Hendrickson in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation for the first time this season. That’s already the fourth time this season that Hendrickson has had multiple sacks in a game. With 11 sacks on the season, Hendrickson is the league leader in such an important category, so it makes sense for him to be in the DPOTY discussion. Unfortunately, Hendrickson plays for a bad defensive team that doesn’t always play with the lead. Also, he might need to hit a major milestone like 20 sacks for his stats alone to make him Defensive Player of the Year. Nevertheless, he’s undoubtedly put himself on the radar.

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Dexter Lawrence, Defensive Tackle, Giants (+1600) at FanDuel

Despite going three straight games without a sack, Lawrence ranks second behind Hendrickson with nine sacks on the season. As an interior lineman, if Lawrence is anywhere close to the top of the sack leaders at season’s end, he’ll garner serious consideration for Defensive Player of the Year. However, his odds have slipped a little over the past couple of weeks. Playing for a team that’s 2-8 is bound to hurt his DPOTY chances, not to mention his spirit, which is why it’ll be tough for Lawrence to remain in the conversation during the second half of the season.

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Nick Bosa, Defensive End, 49ers (+2000) at FanDuel

Bosa has recorded 2.5 sacks over the last three games, as he aims to get the San Francisco defense back on track. But with just 5.5 sacks on the season, Bosa is in the DPOTY discussion based mostly on his name and reputation. He hasn’t quite reached the level that we’ve seen from him in the past. That’s why his odds to be Defensive Player of the Year moved from +1500 after Week 8 to +2000 after Week 10. However, everybody knows the level he’s capable of reaching, which is keeping him on the radar for now.

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Will Anderson Jr., Defensive End Texans (+2000) at FanDuel

Unfortunately, Anderson suffered an injury in Week 9 that also caused him to miss Week 10. As a result, his odds to be Defensive Player of the Year have moved from +550 to +2000 over the past two weeks. Before getting hurt, Anderson had collected five sacks in a span of three games and had emerged as Watt’s top competitor for DPOTY. If he can get healthy, there is still time for Anderson to mount a challenge. With 7.5 sacks, he’s tied for fifth in the NFL. But if Anderson misses another game or two, it’s unrealistic that he’ll be able to make a strong enough case for Defensive Player of the Year honors.

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Who Will Win Defensive Player of the Year?

My Pick - Chris Jones (+900) at FanDuel

If we’re being honest, Watt looks like a safe bet right now. With -140 odds, he still holds decent value. However, the upside with Jones at +900 makes him our preferred pick right now. As mentioned, his lack of sacks and other stats will hurt his case. But keep in mind that Jones has been a First-Team All-Pro in each of the last two seasons. Everyone around the league knows the impact he makes on the field and can see that he’s playing as well as he ever has this season. The longer the Chiefs stay undefeated and continue to be led by their defense, the harder it will be to deny that Jones is the best defensive player in the league right now. By season’s end, there is a chance that a majority of voters will start to see things that way.

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Who Won AP Defensive Player of the Year in 2023?

Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns won Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. He finished the season with 14 sacks and four forced fumbles while helping the Browns reach the playoffs despite starting four different quarterbacks during the season.

AP Defensive Player of the Year Award History

The AP Defensive Player of the Year History was introduced in 1971 and has been handed out at the end of every NFL season since. It is voted upon by a panel of 50 sportswriters and is presented by the Associated Press.

Previous AP Defensive Player of the Year Winners

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on Defensive Player of the Year

Before you place a wager on NFL Defensive Player of the Year, make sure you’re placing that bet at the right sportsbook. Sportsbooks often have different odds, different features, and different promos. This requires a little bit of research before finding the best sportsbook that’s right for you.

More info on the best NFL betting sites can be found in our detailed analysis.

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How to Read Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Barring a heavy favorite, every candidate for Defensive Player of the Year will be assigned plus (+) odds. This means that the profit will be greater than the wager if that player wins. For example, if you get $100 on a player with +450 odds, you will profit $450. Of course, if one player is the clear favorite late in the season, he may have negative (-) odds. For instance, if a player has -200 odds, you will need to wager $200 in order to make a $100 profit.