NFL Defensive Player of the Year Predictions & Odds 2024: T.J. Watt Still Ahead of the Pack, But Patrick Surtain II Close Behind

• Myles Garrett won Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2023.

• Micah Parsons opened as the betting favorite for 2024 Defensive Player of the Year.

• Three different players have taken home DPOTY honors three times.

Every year, the top defensive player in the NFL during the season is recognized with the Defensive Player of the Year Award. It doesn’t matter if they’re linemen in the trenches, linebackers covering the field, or defensive backs playing in the secondary, all defensive players are eligible and capable of winning the honor. Since defensive players almost never win MVP, this is the pre-eminent award for NFL defensive players. 

The 2024 race for Defensive Player of the Year has largely revolved around Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt, who is hoping to win the award for the second time. Since the devastating injury to Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson, Watt has been the clear frontrunner. Based on the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, that hasn’t changed.

To be fair, there is no shortage of defensive players who have had excellent seasons. The problem is that few have been as consistent as Watt or garnered as much attention as he has all season. The problem is that time is starting to run out with just four weeks remaining in the season. Nevertheless, it’s worth taking a closer look at where Watt stands compared to the other serious contenders in the Defensive Player of the Year race. We’ll also share the best betting option at this point in the season.

AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below to place your bets at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Predictions

We’ve seen in past years that the competition for Defensive Player of the Year is intense with several worthy candidates. That’s why we wanted to take a closer look at the top candidates and where they currently stand.

T.J. Watt - Linebacker, Steelers (-190) at FanDuel

Watt continues to hold a strong lead in the Defensive Player of the Year race. In fact, his odds have improved from +105 after Week 12 to -190 after Week 14. His two sacks in Week 13 gives him 9.5 sacks on the season, although he’s still a few off the league lead. However, Watt is currently the league leader in both tackles for loss and forced fumbles. Those numbers are helping to keep Watt the betting favorite for DPOTY. He’s also the best player on a top-five defense, as the Steelers continue to lead the AFC North because of their defense. Unless that changes, Watt will be tough to overcome in the Defensive Player of the Year race.

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Patrick Surtain II, Cornerback, Broncos (+650) at FanDuel

Surtain has emerged as the best candidate to overtake Watt as Defensive Player of the Year. His odds were a mere +1700 after Week 12. But despite the Broncos having a bye in Week 14, Surtain now has +650 odds. The Denver defense was embarrassed by Jerry Jeudy in Week 13, although Jeudy was a non-factor on the plays in which he was matched up against Surtain. Perhaps the Broncos should have kept Surtain on Jeudy all game. Nevertheless, that performance was yet another example of how good Surtain has been at locking up wide receivers all season by preventing targets and never missing a tackle. But even with three interceptions, including a 100-yard pick-six, Surtain may not have the gaudy numbers to win Defensive Player of the Year.

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Xavier McKinney, Safety, Packers (+1900) at FanDuel

McKinney has established himself as the best safety in the league. But that might not be enough to make him Defensive Player of the Year, even with seven interceptions. The fact that the Packers gave up 34 points to the Lions in Week 14 didn’t help his argument. McKinney’s odds have fallen from +1400 after Week 12 to +1900 after Week 14. He’s slipping in the DPOTY race and will need to have some standout performances over the next month to keep him in the conversation.

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Danielle Hunter, Defensive End, Texans (+2200) at FanDuel

Hunter had a ton of momentum in the DPOTY race in late November, collecting five sacks over a span of two games. However, he had a quiet Week 13 against the Jaguars followed by a bye in Week 14, causing his odds to drop from +1400 to +2200 over those two weeks. With 10.5 sacks on the season, Hunter is within striking distance of leading the NFL in that category. He’s also shown the ability to collect sacks in bunches. But Hunter might need to collect half a dozen sacks over the final month of the season if he hopes to be Defensive Player of the Year.

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Will Anderson Jr., Defensive End, Texans (+2200) at FanDuel

Not long ago, Anderson was the best hope for anybody other than Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year. But similar to Hunter, he had a quiet day against the Jaguars in Week 13 and didn’t play in Week 14. With just 9.5 sacks on the season, he has even more work than Hunter if he wants to lead the NFL in sacks and make a case for Defensive Player of the Year. Anderson has the ability to do just that, which is why he shouldn’t be written off entirely.

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Myles Garrett, Defensive End, Browns (+2500) at FanDuel

As the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Garrett looks determined not to give up his crown without a fight. He has seven sacks in his last five games, giving him 11 on the season. That gives him the second-most sacks in the league, behind only Trey Hendrickson, who has 12.5 sacks. Leading the league in sacks, especially by a wide margin, could be Garrett’s only path to winning DPOTY in 2024. He plays for a team that’s 3-10 and gives up over 25 points per game. It’s hard to give a player on a team like that Defensive Player of the Year honors. That means Garrett needs to do something spectacular over the final month of the season.

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Kerby Joseph, Safety, Lions (+2500) at FanDuel

Joseph looks like he’s going to be an All-Pro in his third season in the NFL. He’s tied with McKinney for the league lead with seven interceptions and has undoubtedly played a key role in Detroit’s success this season. The fact that he’s even on the radar for Defensive Player of the Year means something because this is an award that safeties have only won sporadically over the years. But with time running out, Joseph needs to do something eye-catching if he’s going to be a serious DPOTY candidate when all is said and done.

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Who Will Win Defensive Player of the Year - My Pick

T.J. Watt (-190) at FanDuel

With time running out on the season, it’s clear that Watt is almost surely going to win Defensive Player of the Year award. At -190, the value of this pick is still decent considering that Watt seems like a safe bet. Granted, Surtain has picked up a lot of steam and should be viewed as a serious contender. But the Broncos also have a tough schedule down the stretch, so a few Denver losses could hurt him. To be fair, the Steelers also face a tough schedule. But Watt has a long track record of performing at a high level regardless of the opponent. If he helps the Pittsburgh defense continue to shine in games against the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs, it should help Watt to lock up Defensive Player of the Year, so it might be wise to bet on him before his odds get even shorter.

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Who Won AP Defensive Player of the Year in 2023?

Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns won Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. He finished the season with 14 sacks and four forced fumbles while helping the Browns reach the playoffs despite starting four different quarterbacks during the season.

AP Defensive Player of the Year Award History

The AP Defensive Player of the Year History was introduced in 1971 and has been handed out at the end of every NFL season since. It is voted upon by a panel of 50 sportswriters and is presented by the Associated Press.

Previous AP Defensive Player of the Year Winners

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on Defensive Player of the Year

Before you place a wager on NFL Defensive Player of the Year, make sure you’re placing that bet at the right sportsbook. Sportsbooks often have different odds, different features, and different promos. This requires a little bit of research before finding the best sportsbook that’s right for you.

More info on the best NFL betting sites can be found in our detailed analysis.

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How to Read Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Barring a heavy favorite, every candidate for Defensive Player of the Year will be assigned plus (+) odds. This means that the profit will be greater than the wager if that player wins. For example, if you get $100 on a player with +450 odds, you will profit $450. Of course, if one player is the clear favorite late in the season, he may have negative (-) odds. For instance, if a player has -200 odds, you will need to wager $200 in order to make a $100 profit.