NFL Defensive Player of the Year Predictions: Has T.J. Watt Lost DPOTY Late in the Season?

• Myles Garrett won Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2023.

• Micah Parsons opened as the betting favorite for 2024 Defensive Player of the Year.

• Three different players have taken home DPOTY honors three times.

Every year, the top defensive player in the NFL during the season is recognized with the Defensive Player of the Year Award. It doesn’t matter if they’re linemen in the trenches, linebackers covering the field, or defensive backs playing in the secondary, all defensive players are eligible and capable of winning the honor. Since defensive players almost never win MVP, this is the pre-eminent award for NFL defensive players. 

Throughout much of the 2024 season, T.J. Watt was listed as the favorite. After the injury to Aidan Hutchinson, it looked like Watt was poised to cruise to the award. However, Watt never managed to truly run away with the award, opening the door for more contenders late in the season. With the regular season over and voting underway, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, it’s Denver’s Patrick Surtain II who is the betting favorite to be Defensive Player of the Year.

Of course, while the award won’t be announced until before the Super Bowl, voting takes place before the start of the playoffs. All we can do before now and then is speculate. Let’s do just that by taking a closer look at the top contenders for Defensive Player of the Year and exploring what they’ve done this season to deserve the award. We will also share our pick to end up the winner.

AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds

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NFL Defensive Player of the Year Predictions

We’ve seen in past years that the competition for Defensive Player of the Year is intense with several worthy candidates. That’s why we wanted to take a closer look at the top candidates and where they currently stand.

Patrick Surtain II - Cornerback, Broncos (-500) at FanDuel

Just before the end of the season, there was a sudden shift that turned Surtain into the betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. In fact, Surtain has almost become the overwhelming favorite to win the award. On the season, Surtain has given up fewer than 300 yards on just 33 catches on balls thrown to the receiver he was guarding. In Week 17, Ja’Marr Chase, who was arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL this season, caught just three passes for 27 yards on plays that he matched up against Surtain. That performance spoke volumes, even more so than the 100-yard pick-six Surtain had early in the season. Of course, the bar for Defensive Player of the Year is high for cornerbacks, who rarely win the award, making it hard to believe that Surtain is a sure thing to win.

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T.J. Watt - Linebacker, Steelers (+850) at FanDuel

Watt has almost become an afterthought in the DPOTY conversation. He went from being the obvious favorite with -220 odds after Week 16 to having +850 odds after Week 18. Pittsburgh’s late-season swoon certainly didn’t help Watt since he was the main figure for the Steelers on that side of the ball. The fact that Watt finished with just 11.5 sacks made it harder to see him as the overwhelming favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. On the other hand, Watt finished the season tied for the second-most tackles for loss, as well as the league leader with six forced fumbles. However, with the Steelers losing their last four games and Watt failing to record a sack in three of those games, he didn’t make a strong final statement in the Defensive Player of the Year race.

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Trey Hendrickson - Defensive End, Bengals (+850) at FanDuel

As the NFL leader in sacks this season, Hendrickson came on strong late in the season and could be considered an interesting sleeper for Defensive Player of the Year. His 17.5 sacks are 3.5 more sacks than the next closest competitor. In a league that’s full of great pass rushers, that’s a sizable gap between Hendrickson at the top and the rest of the pack. It also matters that Hendrickson collected six of those sacks in the final five weeks of the season, helping the Bengals to win all five of those games and nearly make the playoffs after a brutal start to the season. In fact, Hendrickson collected 3.5 sacks against the Steelers the final week of the season, making a strong final statement. The fact that he ended up tied with Watt with 19 tackles for loss also gives Hendrickson a strong argument for Defensive Player of the Year.

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Who Will Win Defensive Player of the Year - My Pick

Trey Hendrickson (+850) at FanDuel

As good as Surtain has been this season, the wave of support he’s getting and the short odds work against him. While he may end up being the Defensive Player of the Year, he’s not a good betting option at -500. Instead, Hendrickson at +850 offers the most value right now. For much of the season, Watt was the favorite by default, but late in the year, Hendrickson emerged as a player worthy of being Defensive Player of the Year. Typically, this award goes to the best pass rusher or the league leader in sacks. Hendrickson was that player in 2024, and the fact that he led the NFL in sacks by a considerable margin makes him a more serious contender for Defensive Player of the Year than most fans realize.

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Who Won AP Defensive Player of the Year in 2023?

Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns won Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. He finished the season with 14 sacks and four forced fumbles while helping the Browns reach the playoffs despite starting four different quarterbacks during the season.

AP Defensive Player of the Year Award History

The AP Defensive Player of the Year History was introduced in 1971 and has been handed out at the end of every NFL season since. It is voted upon by a panel of 50 sportswriters and is presented by the Associated Press.

Previous AP Defensive Player of the Year Winners

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on Defensive Player of the Year

Before you place a wager on NFL Defensive Player of the Year, make sure you’re placing that bet at the right sportsbook. Sportsbooks often have different odds, different features, and different promos. This requires a little bit of research before finding the best sportsbook that’s right for you.

More info on the best NFL betting sites can be found in our detailed analysis.

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How to Read Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Barring a heavy favorite, every candidate for Defensive Player of the Year will be assigned plus (+) odds. This means that the profit will be greater than the wager if that player wins. For example, if you get $100 on a player with +450 odds, you will profit $450. Of course, if one player is the clear favorite late in the season, he may have negative (-) odds. For instance, if a player has -200 odds, you will need to wager $200 in order to make a $100 profit.