The Pittsburgh Steelers are currently in first place in the AFC North division standings
The Steelers' defense ranks near the top of the board in EPA per Play and Pass Rush Win Rate
Dallas Cowboys star edge rusher Micah Parsons is listed as doubtful while dealing with an injury
Entering last weekend 3-0 and first in the AFC North, the Pittsburgh Steelers were knocked back down to reality after a loss to the Indianapolis Colts while on the road. Even in a loss, the Steelers still looked impressive as they outpaced the Colts in Total Yards and Yards per Play while their defense grades out near the top of the board in Def EPA per Play and Pass Rush Win Rate. Expect their defense to continue to flex their muscles, getting the benefit of defending against a one-dimensional Cowboys offense.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Dallas Cowboys | +1.5 (-105) | +116 | Over 43.5 (-120) |
Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.5 (-115) | -136 | Under 43.5 (-102) |
With the Cowboys' offense severely regressing due to their lack of productive additions in the offseason, they are now prone to stalling out against one of the more formidable defenses in the league. Especially with Brandin Cooks out with an injury, forcing someone else to beat the Steelers' secondary while they throw help-side coverage at CeeDee Lamb. Factor in a ground game that has yet to play at a productive level and the Cowboys will struggle to consistently move the ball down the field into scoring territory.
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While the Cowboys' offense are in a position to get pushed off the field in early outs, the Steelers will find themselves with an uptick in offensive possessions and generous field position for a majority of the contest. Expect Justin Fields to string together an efficient outing while in a clean pocket as the Cowboys have struggled to generate a productive pass rush. Entering Sunday, the Cowboys' front seven ranks below league average in Pass Rush Win Rate and PFF Grade and may be without Defensive Player of the Year contender Micah Parsons who is currently dealing with an injury.
With the Cowboys' defense in a position to take a major step back in production with the injury to Micah Parsons, Justin Fields will find himself with a great opportunity to put together a dominant outing. Especially if the Cowboys' front seven continues to struggle with collapsing the pocket, giving his pass catchers extra time in the open field to help create separation from the Cowboys' coverage. When under pressure, Fields has also continued to burn opposing defenders with his elite speed and maneuverability.
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With a clean pocket and less pressure to combat against, Fields should continue to take care of the ball as he has thrown only one interception in four games played so far this season. A major reason for his lack of turnovers stems from his running ability, giving him a safer avenue to extend plays with his legs by running out into the open field instead of forcing a dangerous throw into tight coverage.
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While Fields should be in a position to air out the ball when in the middle of the field, he will find it tough to sustain that same level of success when in the red zone. Especially with the Cowboys linebackers getting the benefit of anchoring in coverage with less field to cover while not too far off the line. This may lead to the Steelers leaning on their bull back Najee Harris to punch one in, getting the opportunity to run up the gut against a front seven who ranks below league average in Run Defense Win Rate and 32nd overall in Run Defense PFF Grade.
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When: Sunday, October 6 at 8:20 PM ET
Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Where to Watch: NBC
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WR Brandin Cooks - Out
DE DeMarcus Lawrence - Out
DE Micah Parsons - Doubtful
CB DaRon Bland - Out
RB Jaylen Warren - Questionable
RB Cordarrelle Patterson - Questionable
OT Troy Fautanu - Out
LB Alex Highsmith - Out
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