The San Francisco 49ers odds to not make the playoffs continue to grow after a 3-4 start
The Dallas Cowboys defense ranks top-10 in Def Pass Success Rate and in Pressure Rate
San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey are all dealing with injuries
After an abundance of injuries decimated the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, this weekend’s Sunday night primetime matchup between the two NFC Conference foes has lost some of its luster. While the Cowboys are expected to get some of their impact players back, the 49ers offense is currently in flux with Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason, and Jauan Jennings all listed on the injury report.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Dallas Cowboys | +4.5 (-115) | +175 | Over 46.5 (-110) |
San Francisco 49ers | -4.5 (-105) | -210 | Under 46.5 (-110) |
With San Francisco’s offense decimated by injuries, as well as the Cowboys Defensive Player of the Year contender Micah Parsons potentially making his return from injury, the 49ers will struggle to consistently move the sticks into scoring territory. Especially with the Cowboys secondary excelling in coverage when in the middle of the field, entering the contest ranked top-10 in Def Pass Success Rate. With the Cowboys best path for success involving a heavy dose of the run, Dallas can also control the time of possession while simultaneously cutting into the number of the 49ers offensive possessions to keep the contest close.
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With Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey confirmed out, as well as George Kittle, Jordan Mason, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings dealing with injuries, the 49ers are dangerously thin at their skill positions. That directly affects Brock Purdy’s ability to generate offensive production, especially through the air as the 49ers backups are a massive downgrade from their star pass catchers. Factor in the Cowboys defense also excelling at generating pressure and Brock Purdy may find himself with less time in the pocket to let plays develop.
While the Cowboys defense as a whole has struggled leading up to their bye week, they have been a bit unfortunate as injuries have seriously hampered their defensive production. With Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland on track to make their return from injury, the Cowboys may receive an uptick in production on multiple levels of their defense. That spells potential disaster for Brock Purdy and his injury riddled offense as the 49ers will be prone to early outs and stalled out drives while combating against a defense who ranks top-10 in Def Pass Success Rate and Pressure Rate.
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With the 49ers offense expected to struggle with moving the ball down the field at a consistent rate, then trips inside the red zone may be far and few inbetween. That means San Francisco would need to capitalize on their minimal scoring opportunities when they get inside the 20, being better off reverting to the run as the Cowboys defense ranks near dead last across the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
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Speaking of establishing the run, the Cowboys offense would be wise to do the same as the 49ers front seven continues to struggle with limiting opposing rush production as they rank below league average in Def Rush Success Rate. This is in large part of their own scheme as the 49ers sell in out coverage by anchoring their linebackers across the middle. This gives opposing running backs more room to work with, creating higher quality running lanes for them to exploit.
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When: Sunday, October 27th
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Where to Watch: NBC
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WR Brandin Cooks - Out
DE DeMarcus Lawrence - Out
DE Micah Parsons - Questionable
DB DaRon Bland - Questionable
LB Eric Kendricks - Questionable
RB Jordan Mason - Questionable
RB Christian McCaffrey - Out
WR Deebo Samuel - Questionable
WR Brandon Aiyuk - Out
WR Jauan Jennings - Questionable
TE George Kittle - Questionable
LB Dre Greenlaw - Out
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