NFL Conference Championships Picks Against the Spread: Mahomes Headed to Another Super Bowl?

• The Eagles and Commanders split their season series 1-1

• The Bills handed the Chiefs’ starters their only loss this season in Week 11

• The Bills and Commanders met in Super Bowl XXVI, while the Chiefs and Eagles met just two years ago

There are only three games left in the NFL season, and two of them will be played in this weekend’s conference championships.

The Washington Commanders will face the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, while the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs will close out the evening with a battle for the AFC Championship.

Here are our best bets against the spread for the NFL conference championships.

NFL Conference Championships Predictions and Odds

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Commanders vs. Eagles - Jan. 26, 3:00 PM ET 

• Spread: Commanders +6 (-105), Eagles -6 (-115)

• Moneyline: Commanders +240, Eagles -300

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

Road teams in the 2025 NFL playoffs are 2-8. The Commanders are 2-0 on the road. 

Washington’s defense surrendered 521 yards of offense and 31 points to the Detroit Lions, but it also forced a season-best five turnovers and two sacks. Marshon Lattimore was also targeted just one time and did not allow a reception in the entire game. All of a sudden, a team that ranked 18th in points allowed per game showed the blueprint for how it can complement an elite offense and, against all odds, play its role in a Super Bowl charge.

Quarterback Jayden Daniels leads the NFL playoffs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and QBR, and is playing at a higher level than anyone left. He’s already the only quarterback to throw more than two touchdowns in the same game against Philly’s defense (five in Week 16) and has been the most clutch player in the NFL.

Washington is not as physical as its rival and struggled to contain Saquon Barkley in both of their previous matchups, allowing 296 rushing yards and four touchdowns across two meetings. They also gave up 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Jahmyr Gibbs in just 14 carries last week, making run defense the priority focus heading into Sunday afternoon. 

On the other side, the Eagles staved off the LA Rams’ late comeback attempt to move onto yet another conference championship game. QB Jalen Hurts had a powerful 44-yard touchdown run early in the game but didn’t do much else after that aside from injuring his knee, and he averaged just 129.5 passing yards per game and totaled three touchdowns in two playoff games. Philly still has never won a playoff game in which he threw for more than 158 yards.

While Hurts has been a relative nonfactor, Barkley has been phenomenal. He iced the game with a 78-yard touchdown run last weekend and averaged 162 rushing yards across the first two games of the playoffs, while the defense held opponents to 10 and 22 points.

Philly’s defense posted nearly identical numbers in EPA per play during the regular season (-.087) and playoffs (-.084). Their offense has only been about one-third as productive, and there is now real concern about their ability to throw the ball due to Hurts’ unimpressive showings and knee injury.

Philly’s home matchup with Washington on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 ended 26-18 on the shoulders of, predictably, a strong outing from Barkley. Jayden Daniels struggled with bruised ribs, and they did not have a receiver catch more than 10 yards of passes. 

The trip down to D.C. saw Hurts endure a concussion and the team lose 36-33 despite forcing five turnovers. 

This is the third meeting between the two, meaning there is plenty of film for both coaches to watch. Nick Sirianni’s consistent ability to win football games suggests he will have a solid game plan in place, but Dan Quinn is arguably doing the best coaching job in the entire league.

The Birds are rightful favorites, but this line discredits the clutch factor of the Commanders and the potential new level of play reached by their defense, which is as confident as it can be. Washington has been excellent down the stretch all year, so even if they are down comfortably for most of the game, they’ll have a chance to burst through the backdoor for a cover.

Commanders vs. Eagles pick: Commanders +6 (-105) at BetMGM

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Bills vs. Chiefs - Jan. 26, 6:30 PM ET 

• Spread: Bills +1.5 (-105), Chiefs -1.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Bills +110, Chiefs -130

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

General gambling advice here: if you like the Bills, take the +1.5. If you like the Chiefs, take them on the moneyline. Don’t risk getting hooked unnecessarily considering there isn’t much change in value, and take the points if you can get them.

The Bills distinguished themselves by being the only team in the NFL to beat the Chiefs starters and keep them out of the history books as the definition of perfection. Josh Allen went for 262 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception, and carried the ball 12 times for 55 yards and a 26-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes went 23/33 for 193 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions without Hollywood Brown or Isiah Pacheco on the field.

The Bills are 10-0 at home across the playoffs and regular season, yet they’re only 5-4 on the road. Those four losses came against the Baltimore Ravens, the Houston Texans, the Los Angeles Rams, and the New England Patriots (when they sat their starters).

Allen had an exceptional season and will finish either first or second in NFL MVP voting. But one of his and the Bills’ most impressive wins in recent history came last week against the Baltimore Ravens when Allen had just 127 passing yards, 20 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns. 

The level of impressiveness came from Buffalo’s ability to recognize the Ravens turned the ball over, and they didn’t need to try to create explosive plays or come out of their shell to be “exciting.” They played an extremely mature and measured game, very reminiscent of how the Chiefs won so many games despite seemingly being outplayed. 

The Bills’ defense did what it should’ve in the opening round, which was to stop a rookie QB in his tracks. It struggled against the Ravens’ running game but never lost its level of physicality and looks primed for another heavyweight matchup.

On the other side, the Chiefs haven’t been blowing teams out or scoring a ton of points. In fact, they lost the battles in total yards, rushing yards, yards per play, third-down efficiency, and time of possession against the Houston Texans, yet they found a way to win just as they always do.

Patrick Mahomes threw 19 touchdowns and two interceptions in his last 10 games, and the defense gave up just 17.9 points per game during that time. They didn’t amaze in advanced metrics during that stretch, but they ranked in or about the top 12 in most of them.

The Chiefs are more comfortable in tight, high-leverage games than anyone else. They posted a record of 11-0 in one-score games during the regular season and never seemed that threatened by the Texans, despite the latter playing an excellent defensive game.

This feels like the Bills’ best chance to finally get over the hump and to take down the Chiefs—but it’s hard, no, impossible to believe that the Chiefs are ever out of a game until it happens. 

The NFL is about heartbreak, and Allen’s most promising season of his career may have to be sacrificed for the Chiefs’ shot at a three-peat. Again, take the Chiefs’ moneyline, but they’re also our best bet against the spread.

Bills vs. Chiefs pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-115) at BetMGM

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